The Strazza Letter Articles

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. 

This is a classic leadership scan.

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week’s standout is Industrials, climbing to the number two spot in our sector rankings.

Technology keeps leading, but other areas are starting to catch up.

The industrial sector is one of the best gauges of overall market health. It’s the most diversified group and has the highest correlation to the major averages.

I like to call Industrials the “generals” of the market. When they march higher, it means things are good for risk assets more broadly.

On the other hand, Materials also jumped three spots this week, showing renewed strength from the cyclical corners of the market...

Stock markets all over the world are parading to fresh highs. From Europe to Asia, the world’s major benchmarks sit at – or within a stone’s throw of – all-time or cycle highs.

Stateside, the Nasdaq 100 printed a new all-time high, and the S&P 500 followed a few days after. 

Leadership groups are breaking out in unison. Down the risk curve, speculative growth is screaming and semis are back in the driver’s seat. 

One bull flag after another keeps resolving higher. 

And most importantly for today's note— the laggards keep catching up to the leaders.

But there’s one group that just hasn't shown up yet… and quite frankly, the bull market can’t rage on without them. I’m talking about a group of stocks SO important, they literally have to join the party. Otherwise, it throws a wrench in the entire bullish thesis.

It’s Homebuilders.

...

You have probably heard me talk about the Three B’s before.

It stands for banks, biotechs, and builders, and is a fun and convenient acronym I use when discussing the most interest rate-sensitive stocks.

These groups could not be more different, but they share a key similarity in the sense that they all move in synchrony with the bond market.

Biotechs are some of the longest-duration equities, so lower rates boost their valuations. It also allows these chronic cash-burners to access capital cheaply.

Builders sell houses, and lower rates are the key demand driver, so that one is obvious.

And banks are new to the lower rates list. 

We used to say banks want higher rates, or a higher spread—it’s how they make money. However, that changed recently as asset-liability matching issues arose from lending operations during the last rate-...

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. 

This is a classic leadership scan.

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week, Financials is the big standout—climbing five spots in our sector rankings.

While Technology holds the top spot, it’s worth highlighting Financials this week. 

The consolidation in the Financial Sector SPDR $XLF is likely to resolve higher soon- just like Technology $XLK, Communications $XLC, and Industrials $XLI did this week. 

These are all very different sectors, but they share one critical thing in common. These groups all represent risk appetite. 

The market is on offense right now, so we’re going to keep fishing in risk-on areas. 

...

If you see a bull flag… Buy it. 

It’s what we’ve been telling our clients, and it’s been our mantra internally.

This has been the top pattern to profit from lately. Period.

It’s simple, reliable, and works best in bullish environments like this one.

I’ve been putting more and more money behind these patterns over the past few weeks. Not only do they keep resolving higher, but the reaction legs have been fierce— some going flat-out vertical.

Here are two recent examples to illustrate how I trade this formation.

First up: Micron Technologies $MU.

After a strong leg higher, $MU formed a textbook bull flag. I bought the $MU 7/18 $120 calls...

The team and I have been digging through our currency charts today, trying to figure out if we should trust these new lows in the Dollar Index.

And the truth is, there is plenty we could say about dollars right now, but I don’t think it would help.

The Dollar Index is going to go in the opposite direction of these bull flags in EUR and GBP.

It’s really that simple. 

And as far as other currencies go, I think we can expect them to follow the majors. Some of them are already breaking out. 

Remember, the major developed currencies started trending well against the dollar first, and then emerging currencies gradually followed. 

I expect that intermarket cadence will continue during the next wave of dollar weakness.

And it looks like it already is. Here’s the Euro and Pound resolving their coils higher against USD:

Both of these currencies ramped to fresh multi-year highs in April and have been consolidating in continuation patterns ever since.

This action reminds me of some of the ...

There comes a time in every bull market cycle when the worst companies are the best stocks.

And this is a feature as far as I’m concerned… not a bug. 

It speaks to the offensive nature of the market. 

We call it bullish risk appetite, and it’s happening now.

If you know what to do with this kind of market, you can make a killing renting the right stocks at the right time. 

I did a livestream with my friend Herb Greenberg today, and we caught up afterward. I always love hearing his perspective on the stocks we’re trading.

It’s tough to be bearish on some of these speculative growth names in an environment where shorts are getting squeezed, but Herb is the best in the business when it comes to flagging bad actors, so I had to ask him...

“What do you know about this...

I’m going out for drinks tonight with a good friend who owns a real estate agency in Key West.

We’re going to talk about home prices, inventory levels, and mortgage rates… and I can’t wait.

The truth is, I’ve been thinking about the housing market a lot lately. I’m really into it.

Rose and I have decided to give the mainland a shot and are moving up to the Naples area this week. We’ll miss Key West, but we are excited about this new chapter in our lives.

We took our time searching for a place over the past year or so. In the process, I’ve spent countless hours on Zillow $Z and have looked at a variety of South Florida homebuilder communities— from Lennar $LEN to Taylor Morrison $TMHC and Pulte Homes $PHM. 

I’ve dealt with Rocket Companies $RKT, with whom I have my first mortgage. 

And this past week, it’s been all about shopping for furniture on sites like Wayfair $W.

Welcome back for another Top Down Trade of the Week. 

This one’s a classic leadership scan.

We start with the best sectors, then drill into the subgroups. We pick one, and then take a look at the top stocks in it. 

This week, Technology is the big standout—climbing seven spots in our sector rankings.

While Energy maintains the top spot, Industrials and Communications have also gained ground.

Here is a look at our overall industry rankings, which shows semiconductors jumping into the top 5.

Semis just failed to complete a top relative to the broader market and are now reasserting their leadership.

If this risk-on group is in good shape, then stocks...

The major averages were lower this week, but it was still a win for the bulls.

Here’s why…

Since the market bottomed over two months ago, the best stocks have been the riskiest ones.

Of course, I’m talking about the impressive leadership from speculative growth.

We’ve seen this story before, though. We’ve actually already seen it several times in the current cycle.

Speculative tech was an area of standout leadership during the Q4 2023 rally.

The space also outperformed in a major way during the post-election ramp-up coming into the year.

But the momentum and relative strength didn’t last in either of those cases…

I think this time is different…

And the relative trend between the flagship ARK fund and the S&P is a big reason why:

“I’m gobbling up COIN calls.”

It’s what I told Breakout Multiplier members I was doing during last week’s strategy session.

Today, Coinbase stock rallied 16% after Congress passed the Genius Act, providing regulatory clarity for stablecoins. 

The company also announced the launch of a stablecoin payments stack for e-commerce platforms. The news tanked blue-chip payment names, Visa and Mastercard.

And that’s just the disruptive nature of this business. 

I think Coinbase is one of the most exciting long-term growth stories out there. 

They keep doing all the right things. And now that they finally have a clear and supportive regulatory backdrop, they can execute freely. 

But that’s why I own the common stock… 

The short-dated calls I’ve been pounding the table about have nothing to...

I was joking with Patrick earlier, and I told him I buy every ticker he texts me these days. 

“Buy first. Ask questions later.” 

But I was just alluding to the fact that it seems like every bullish chart pattern is working out here. 

I talk to my friends about what I’m seeing and trading throughout the day, and many of us have been on the speculative growth train. 

It’s insane how well these junky stocks are working. And it’s a longer list of them every day. 

I know almost for a fact that a good deal of these are probably zeros over the long run. That doesn’t matter. 

What matters is that they are working now. 

It’s the kind of market to take shots on the crazy stuff. And we have been doing it more and more because we keep being rewarded.  

It’s...