The Sunday Stalk List | Ep. 15

Sunday Stalk List | Ep 15

Welcome back to The Sunday Stalk List.

Every weekend, I review hundreds if not thousands of charts across U.S. indices, global markets, breadth, sentiment, and intermarket relationships.

And now I’m opening up my stalk list.

The names that stood out the most from my review.

This week’s theme: Tantrum Time 

It’s tantrum time.

Tech breaking down, the economy falling apart or inflation is running hot humans will find a reason to throw one.

With earnings in the rearview, the spotlight shifts to the economy. 

PPI and CPI are on deck, and last Friday’s employment report already sparked another fit.

I don’t dismiss the data, but I prefer the message in price. Numbers get revised. Forecasts are guesses. 

Price is truth. No revisions, no guessing. 

This week I’m stalking charts that cut through the noise, showing that neither the economy nor technology justify these tantrums....YET.

Let’s get into it.

The Tech Tantrum 

Markets have nuance. Too many are confusing rotation with obliteration. 

$XLK - Technology (Market Cap Weighted) 

We’re consolidating above a rising 200-day. That’s not what tops look like. Hold your horses on the “tech is breaking down” tantrum.

$RSPT - Technology (Equally Weighted) 

Equal weight takes away the anecdotes and gives us the true weight of evidence. Once again, tech is consolidating above support. That’s healthy.

Take a look at Tech breadth.

Majority of the stocks are all above multi-timeframe trends. That’s not what breakdowns look like. 

Short-term choppiness, sure, but longer-term trend health is still intact.

If this is a tantrum, it’s more noise than substance.

The "Economic" Tantrum 

Every economic data point has become a spark for a new narrative, suddenly the economy is either too strong, too weak, or falling apart altogether.

But here’s the reality: most of these charts are either consolidating or just getting started. 

That’s not the kind of setup where you want to over-forecast. Calling the final outcome from the first move is a fool’s errand.

$TLT - 20 Year Bonds 

Yes, Bonds are carving out a bottom, but it’s still early. We’re just now retesting a falling 200-day. 

We’ve already seen several failed breakouts over the past year — patience matters here.

$XLE - Energy is still stuck. 

Energy remains stuck in a sideways mess. Price will let us know when it’s time to take the inflation implications seriously. 

For now, we pay attention but no need to panic. 

$XLE & $TNX - Energy and Yields 

Energy and yields have a long history of moving together. 

Rising energy often fuels inflationary pressure and Fed action, falling energy does the opposite. 

Yet, here too, we’ve been stuck in a three-year sideways range.

My Two Cents 

The temptation is always to jump the gun, to act like you’ve got the crystal ball no one else has.

But markets don’t reward that. They reward waiting for confirmation. 

Price will show us when something truly breaks .... it always has, and it always will.

See you next week.

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