The first five trading days of January are complete, and the S&P 500 finished the window up 1.1%.
Here’s the table:
Let's break down what the table shows:
The table displays daily S&P 500 returns for the first five trading days of January 2026, with each day’s percentage change shown in sequence. It also includes a total percentage change for the five-day window.
Below that, the chart shows historical summary statistics for years when the first five days finished positive and for years when they finished negative. Those statistics include median returns, percentage of positive outcomes, average gains, average losses, and full-year performance following each setup.
The Takeaway: The first five trading days of January finished higher, with the S&P 500 up 1.1%.
That puts 2026 on the right side of an early-year hurdle.
History favors strength after positive starts, and this year cleared that bar.
When the first five days are positive, the market usually rewards that momentum. In those years, 85% finished higher, with a median full-year gain of 15.9%.
Buyers stepped in early, but they did not blow the doors off. That is what healthy demand looks like.
Positive first five day years show better upside follow-through and tighter downside. Negative starts do not. The market either leans into risk early or it spends the year chopping itself apart. So far, 2026 chose the first path.
This is not a victory lap. The market passed its opening test, not the final exam.
January and 2026 still have work to do.
So, does the data keep confirming strength, or does price push back?
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