Today's number is... 52

The relative ratio of the S&P 500 Index versus the S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector has reached a fresh 52-week low.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the relative ratio of S&P 500 Index versus the S&P 500 Consumer Staples.
• The red line is the 200-day moving average of the relative ratio.
• The blue line is the 50-day moving average of the relative ratio.

The Takeaway: In healthy bull markets, this ratio typically moves up and to the right on the chart. 

Right now it's moving lower! 

There’s no other way to put it—market participants are positioning themselves defensively… They are not seeking risk.

This defensive rotation has been steadily increasing since late January, and the current landscape is risk-off. 

This is perfectly normal behavior in a weak market.

Let me break down what I am seeing in the chart:

- The ratio has reached a new 52...

Today's number is... 24.5

The average bulls have fallen to 24.5, the lowest level since the lows of the ‘cost of living crisis’ in October 2022.

Here’s the chart:

 Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The blue line in the top panel represents the price of the S&P 500 index.
• The green line in the middle panel shows the average bulls from the Investors Intelligence (II) and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
• The red line in the bottom panel shows the average bears from the II and the AAII.

The Takeaway: You need bulls in bull markets to buy stocks...That's just math.

And today we're seeing the opposite of that.

The average number of bulls has dropped to its lowest level since October 2022, while the average number of bears has reached its highest level since that same month.

This tells me that optimism in the market has vanished, and the recent volatility has really led to a notable level of pessimism.

With bullish sentiment at such low levels and bearish...

Today's number is... 10

The relative ratio of the World Ex-US index versus the S&P 500 has made a 10-month high.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line shows the relative ratio of World Ex-US (VEU) versus the S&P 500 Index (SPY).

The Takeaway: While the focus in the US is on Trump and his tariffs, the rest of the world is moving higher! 

The relative ratio of the World Ex-US index vs the S&P 500 has broken out and is reaching 10-month highs. 

Last month, I shared a note outlining the key changes I observed in the ratio between the World Ex-US index vs the S&P 500. At that time, there wasn't enough evidence to confirm a change in trend.  

However, I can now confirm that a trend...