There have been 52 consecutive trading days the S&P 500 has closed above its 20-day moving average — just shy of the 53-day streak seen in early 2024 — and one of the most persistent trend runs of the past 25 years.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel shows the S&P 500 daily close, with its 20-day moving average in red.
The black line in the lower panel plots the number of consecutive days the index has closed above its 20-day average.
The Takeaway: Credit to Subu Trade for sparking the deep dive into this.
The 20-day moving average is a simple trend barometer.
When price stays above it, bulls are still in control.
The composite Z-score of three major sentiment surveys—AAII Bulls, Investors Intelligence Bulls, and the NAAIM Exposure Index—just hit 0.72. That’s the highest reading of 2025 and marks a clear shift toward optimism.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel shows the S&P 500 Index on a weekly closing basis.
The blue line in the lower panel shows the average Z-score of AAII Bulls, Investors Intelligence Bulls, and the NAAIM Exposure Index.
The Takeaway: For most of this year, sentiment has been playing catch-up. The S&P 500 has been breaking out for months, yet investors remained hesitant.
That gap is now closing.
Last week’s jump signals that the crowd is finally buying into the rally.
This is a notable psychological shift.
A reading of 0.72 lands in the 74th percentile of all weekly observations since 2011. That’s elevated, but far from euphoric.
That’s how many green lights are flashing in this two-factor trend model built on two of the market’s oldest rules: don’t fight the tape, and don’t fight the Fed.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The black line in the top panel shows the S&P 500 Index on a monthly basis.
The red line is the 12-month moving average of the S&P 500.
The black line in the lower panel shows the 3-Month Financial Commercial Paper Rate.
The red line is the 10-month moving average of that rate.
Green shading highlights a bullish regime based on trend.
Red shading highlights a bearish regime based on trend.
The Takeaway: This is a simple model that tracks price and policy — the two forces that move markets. When both align, history says the odds tilt higher.
I’ll start with the tape.
When the S&P 500 trades above its 12-month average, it signals a healthy...
