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The Dollar Is Breaking Down 💵

Today's number is... 96.0

The US Dollar Index just hit fresh 52-week lows at 96.0, the lowest level since February 2022.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The chart displays the U.S. Dollar Index as a black line.
  • The blue line plots the 200-day moving average.
  • A green dashed line marks the rolling 52-week high level.
  • A red dashed line marks the rolling 52-week low level.

The Takeaway: The US Dollar is trading at fresh 52-week lows, its weakest level since early 2022.

This is not just a short-term dip.

This is a market that has failed to hold prior support and continues to print lower lows.

The Dollar has spent most of the past year below its 200-day moving average. When price stays below the long-term average this long, rallies fail and sellers stay in control. Until the bulls take it back, the trend stays down for now.

Key support has been broken. The prior support zone near the high-90s did not hold. Price tested it, bounced, and rolled over. That level now sits above the market. Broken support now turns into resistance.

A weak Dollar tends to loosen financial conditions. A falling Dollar reduces liquidity pressures and eases stress on risk assets. That backdrop has historically favored equities, especially when stocks already sit in strong uptrends.

Stocks are not fighting the tape. They are pressing higher while the Dollar slides.

That combination has shown up before during strong equity bull markets, not during market tops driven by tightening conditions. This does not mean stocks go up every day. It means the macro pressure from currency is not working against risk.

So, are you positioned for a strong Dollar, or trading a market where the Dollar just broke down and stocks sit at record highs?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts


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