Two different trading environments, and this year is not last year’s market.
Here’s the chart:
Let's break down what the chart shows:
The chart displays bar returns for multiple S&P indexes across two periods.
Green bars represent 2026 YTD returns.
Red bars represent full-year 2025 returns.
The Takeaway: 2025 was a size and Growth market. Large-cap Growth and the S&P 500 carried returns. Everything below them lagged. That was the environment.
2026 is different.
Leadership has rotated down the cap scale. Small-caps are leading outright. S&P 600 Value is up 10.9% YTD, with Core and Growth close behind. Risk is moving down the cap scale.
Mid-caps confirm the shift. All three S&P 400 styles sit near 8.8% YTD. No single style is leading. Everything is moving together.
Large-caps are now the laggards.
The S&P 500 is up only 1.8% YTD. The index is no longer telling the full story.
Large-cap Value is holding up better than Large-cap Growth, but it still trails every mid and small-cap group. Money is not hiding. It is moving.
This is the opposite of last year. 2025 rewarded size and concentration. 2026 is rewarding breadth and participation.
That is a change in the trading environment.
This is rotation, not risk-off. Money has stayed in equities. It just moved away from the most crowded trade.
So, are you positioned for this year’s market, or still trading last year’s leaders?
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