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The Market Is Out of Gear ⚠️

Today's number is... 7

The NYSE + NASDAQ + AMEX High-Low Logic Index just printed above 7.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

  • The top of the chart displays a black line tracking the S&P 500 on a weekly basis.
  • The lower section displays a black line for the NYSE + NASDAQ + AMEX High-Low Logic, which represents the 10-week exponential moving average of the High-Low Logic calculation. That calculation uses the smaller of two values each week: the percentage of stocks making new 52-week highs or the percentage making new 52-week lows.

The Takeaway: 7 puts this indicator back in the danger zone.

Readings above 5 mean a large number of stocks are making new highs while a large number are also making new lows.

That is not healthy participation.

Every spike above this zone came before stress in price. It was there ahead of the 2015–16 correction, the late 2018 drawdown, the 2020 crash, the 2022 bear market, and the 2024 pullback.

Instability came first. Price reacted after.

It did not call the exact top, but it flagged instability before the air pocket showed up.

Right now, the S&P 500 sits near its highs while internals are cracking underneath.  This is not a crash signal. It is a stress signal.

Stress raises the odds of volatility expansion.

Stress narrows leadership.

Stress makes breakouts fail faster.

Traders should be cautious because this shifts risk from low to elevated, even as price still appears strong.

The weight of the evidence still leans bullish, and this is just one indicator flashing red, but this is where cracks usually start.

So, breadth just went out of gear. Does price follow it?

Let me know! 

Grant Hawkridge | Chief Aussie Operator, All Star Charts


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