From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Two weeks into 2022 and EEM (Emerging Markets) has a 500 basis point YTD lead over SPY (S&P 500). Emerging markets are up more than 2% and the S&P 500 is down more than 2%. Short-term charts can make this look like a significant shift in leadership. While it may turn into that, at this point it looks like a premature conclusion. My guess is that we are in the early stages of a shift away from the US and toward global equity market leadership, including emerging markets. But two weeks of outperformance after a decade of relative weakness is not much of a signal. 

If we look at the history, all of the net gains in EEM over the past nearly two decades have come when the ratio between EEM and SPY has been above its 200-day average. The ratio is rising and the 200-day average is falling, so there is convergence. But there has not yet been a crossover. That’s the signal I want to see before getting too excited about the strength we are seeing from EEM. 

It’s certainly something to watch, but we want to watch with a bit of perspective.

...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

It was Bucks vs Warriors in Milwaukee last night. Giannis vs Curry. A marquee January matchup for the NBA. 

The game got away from Golden State early and they were down 48-24 with about 8 minutes to go in the first half. When the final buzzer sounded, it was a 118-99 Bucks win. Curry, who has been averaging 35 minutes per game this season, was only in for 29 last night. In fact, no starter on either team played more than 30 minutes.

Turns out a blowout in January is a great time for players (even the stars) to get some rest. It's a long season and when the must-win playoff games come around, coaches are going to want their players as fresh as possible.

One of the processes we absolutely love to follow is the Top/Down Analysis approach. In this process, we identify the larger trend and then zoom in and analyse the characteristics that stand out. We look at the asset classes, identify the strongest one, and then deep dive. Next, we look at sectors and identify the pockets of outperformance. Finally, we take a look at an actionable trade that suits our risk and reward parameters.

So let's see what we have this time around!

This is the video recording of our January 14, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

This is the video recording of the January 13th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets

01/13/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Don't judge a book by its cover is sage advice I'm sure we've all heard from a parent, teacher or mentor at some point in our lives. 

The message is clear. We’re not supposed to read a title or see a label and jump to conclusions. It's always better to get inside and see what something’s all about before deciding to embrace or reject it.

We’re seeing this play out in the market in several ways right now.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as a market of stocks.

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions… but there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club. We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports. Now, we’re also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the...

It's been a tough period for crypto-stock bulls.

While most cryptocurrencies themselves have done well since the summer, many of the most prominent crypto stocks and miners have been painful underperformers.

But, given that many of the biggest coins are in the process of forming potential tradable bottoms, there are early signs of this changing.

Many crypto stocks are also in a process of testing critical levels of support, and the risk versus reward is currently more in favor of the bulls over bears.

Before we dive into individual names, here's a look at the sector as a whole.

The frustration we're seeing from permabears is at a whole 'nother level these days.

I don't need to name and names. You know who they are. They've been calling the top since the last top. It's what they do.

They claim the system is broken. They cry that nothing matters anymore.

And to be clear, it's not that 'nothing' matters.

It's just that the things the market cares about, are NOT the things you think it should care about.

We're selling a $NVDA February 260/240 Bull Put spread for an approximately $4.75 credit. This means we’re in the regular February monthly expiration options and we’re short the 260 puts and long an equal amount of 240 puts to define our risk.

Check out our short video with the thought process behind these trades:

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Investor sentiment surveys are showing waning optimism as 2022 gets underway but there is still little evidence of fear. From a flow and positioning perspective, the 2021 excesses have not been unwound. Equity ETFs continue to record huge inflows even as households have near-record exposure to equities and stocks trade at never before seen valuations. The resolution to these imbalances could come more from rotation than from an outright unwinding. While risk appetite in the US is fading (particularly for the speculative names that were surging higher at this time last year), currency markets suggest renewed interest in global assets. Overseas equities and commodities are gaining strength. They could provide a needed alternative if investors really start to sour on US equities.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Currency Rotations Reveal Risk Appetite

Most of our US-based sentiment indicators suggest risk appetite among investors has been  waning (though...

The V-Bottom is back! (At least as of the time of this writing). What a bounce stocks have seen off Monday's nadir.

Have we stuck the landing and its back to new all-time highs for the broader indexes soon?

Time will tell. But the short term bet we're making today is that Monday's low will hold at least for a couple weeks. And today's trade in a leading stock in a leading sector reflects this stance. When in doubt, stick with the strongest names in the strongest sectors, right?

So that's brings us to Nvidia $NVDA.

In Monday's report, we outlined how conditions haven't fully developed for a high-conviction dip-buy. We're anticipating a high concentration of whipsaws before these assets find a tradable bottom.

At the same time, from a risk-versus-reward perspective, the recent pivot lows are proving to be important levels of interest right now.

In a weekend note, we'd asked whether this was simply a retest of the crash low -- or whether it was still crashing.

Fast-forward today, and the market is respecting this level -- certainly an important one to be watching.

It seems the equivalent level in Ethereum is just below 3,000, which not only represents its latest pivot lows but is also the...

We debuted a new scan recently- The Outperformers.

The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.

The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.

Remember that Bitcoin crash in early December?

That was fun wasn't it?

The comparisons to 1987 in the S&P500 were too similar to ignore.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

There's been a subtle risk-on tone in recent weeks. With each passing day, it's been spreading to more and more markets and charts.

Rates are rising around the globe. The underlying uptrend in commodities is intact and looks ready for another up leg. Our equal-weight commodity index is resolving higher from its current range. And cyclical stocks such as energy and financials are breaking out to new highs.

All of these events speak to a growing risk appetite and support higher prices for risk assets.

Although, two areas where we aren't seeing such clear evidence that risk-seeking behavior is re-entering the market would be currencies and our intermarket ratios.

The AUD/JPY cross is still stuck within a range. High-yield bonds $HYG relative to their safer alternatives -- US Treasuries $IEI -- failed to hold their recent highs. And the copper/gold ratio is a hot mess.

We would expect to see decisive upside resolutions from these charts if investors are positioning for another leg higher...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street. These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That’s why we’re turning our attention to the future aristocrats. In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we’re curating a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are “stocks that pay you to make money.” Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical analysis...