It's been a pretty lousy market out there...

There's been so little to discuss in the way of data points that'd pull us from the doldrums.

Strazza sent a brief note in our Slack chat to ask how many cryptos were below their June-July lows. This is when things were at their worst -- 3AC just got margin-called, and there were mass liquidations.

Upon quantifying this, only 4% of our universe of 316 coins are below their closing June-July lows.

That's 13 coins, not a whole lot.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The big insider transaction everyone is talking about this morning isn’t on our list, as there hasn’t been a filing yet.

Last night, during the Asana $ASAN earnings call, the company announced that its founder, Dustin Moskovitz, will be purchasing another $350 million worth of stock via a private placement.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

Where are we in the cycle?

That's something I like to think about.

The reason is because it helps me allocate my time better. Should I be spending more time looking for stocks to buy, should I be spending more time looking for stocks to sell, or should I be at the beach because the market is a mess?

Being able to answer this question correctly can be a huge advantage.

I think blindly incorporating a specific type of strategy at all times, regardless of the market conditions seems awfully difficult.

If we can first identify what type of market environment we're in, then we can pick and choose which tools and strategies are best fit for that part of the cycle.

Are we in a high volatility environment? Then why would we implement strategies that are best suited for low volatility environments?

Are we in a trending market environment? Then why would we use the tools and strategies that are best for sideways rangebound markets?

I think we first identify where we are in the cycle, and then decide how to approach the market from there.

We do this by weighing all of evidence. And to be clear, I mean all the...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Despite the stock market’s reluctance toward sustained advances, investors have refused to throw in the towel. The bulls showed up last month, declaring their intent by triggering short-term breadth and momentum thrusts. Yet, as impressive as the display of strength was, they’re still waiting for the market to respond. Or at least the response they were hoping for. We would expect oversold conditions to reverse quickly after strong upside momentum and broadening participation. That hasn’t happened yet and bulls are showing signs of getting discouraged. If the relationship between investors and stocks isn’t going to be a two-way street, the likelihood of a broader and deeper sentiment re-set increases.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Investors Not Giving Up On Stocks

Despite financial market volatility in August and evidence of increased caution showing up in options data and sentiment surveys, investors increased exposure to both stocks and bonds. ETF...

This is the video recording of our September 7, 2022, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

After reviewing the Cyclical Portfolio, we are making the active decision to sit on our hands for now. In the Tactical Opportunity Portfolio, we've made a couple of tweaks. We are seeing "Higher for longer" resonate with the bond market and are increasing exposure to one of the few areas that is actually still in an uptrend.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

Recently I've been listening to a wider variety of music than I have in the past. It's by design.

Each week, I've assigned myself a little goal to listen to a new album. I set aside a few hours to actively listen and immerse myself in the music -- to relax, of course, but also to consider the themes and overall messages artists are trying to convey.

It's been fun, and I'm enjoying it immensely. And it's also helped me become a better writer and opened my outlook on life more broadly.

Music is powerful. I can't imagine life without it. And one particular track from my personal list of top 10 classic hip hop pieces of all time has been stuck in my head all day.

You've heard me say it a million times by now.

It's going to be really difficult to make money long most stocks or crypto the rest of the year if the US Dollar remains strong.

Check out last night's video about what we're doing about it.

We got just a little bit of Dollar weakness starting in mid-July and stocks ripped higher. Thousands of points added to the Dow, Ethereum doubled and the average stock on the Nasdaq rallied over 40%.

We saw one of the most historic short-squeezes in history. And all it took was just a little bit of Dollar weakness. It wasn't even that much.

But then once that Dollar strength came back last month, the bid in stocks and crypto disappeared.

The most significant insider transaction on today's list comes in a 13D from Carl Icahn, who increased his ownership stake in Southwest Gas $SWX by 1%.

Icahn now owns 9.7% of outstanding shares, up from the 8.7% he reported on August 16.

This is the video recording of our September 6th Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Did we just experience the largest bear market rally in history? 

Or did the June low mark the bottom for stocks?

Instead of getting caught up in the "bull vs. bear" debate or, even worse, attempting to pick the bottom, let’s focus on a singular fact…

US dollar headwinds persist. And whether it was the bottom or not, as long as this is the case, stocks are likely to remain under pressure.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended September 2, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers report.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was negative, with 91% of our list closing lower with a median return of -2.99%.
• The US 10-Year Yield $TNX was the winner, closing with a 5.21% gain.
• Copper $HG was the biggest loser, with a weekly loss of -7.45%.
• There was no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 6%.
• 6% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
• ...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Structural Trends Shift in Favor of Value

We just got fresh monthly candles for August last week. When we look at a monthly line chart of the growth vs value relationship, it’s hard to see anything but a recently completed double top formation and successful retest from below. The fact that this bearish reversal pattern is occurring at a critical level of interest at the dot-com bubble highs makes this price action even more significant. As long as this distribution pattern remains valid, we’re anticipating a structural reversal in this relative trend that favors value. And as shown in the upper pane, as far as the major averages are concerned, this means we want to overweight the value-heavy Dow Industrials and underweight tech-heavy indexes such as the Nasdaq 100.