If one were to simply observe the daily charts for $SPY or $QQQ while listening to the teevee, one would easily conclude the sky is falling. And that would be an easy conclusion to come to.

But when we take a step back from the noise and look elsewhere, the details under the hood are suggesting a different story. And that is giving me some confidence to fade the hysteria here.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Price volatility fueling sentiment reset. Indexes under pressure as the tide turns against their largest components. Positive breadth divergences lacking.

• Higher rates are fueling strength in Energy and Financials - leadership from those sectors can be seen across market cap levels.
• Our industry group heat map shows continued deterioration from large-cap groups and improvement from small-cap groups. Some 8% of large-cap groups made new 13-week highs last week vs 42% that made new 13-week lows. Among small-cap groups, it was 17% at new highs and only 13% at new lows. 

Axie Infinity is the talk of the crypto town today, and for good reason.

This thing has gone in a straight line higher and doubled from our entry when we were buying it last week.

Now, AXS is trading at a market cap of $9B putting it among one of the most valuable video game entities in the world.

For today's post, we wanted to step back and revisit why we've been so obnoxiously bullish over the last few months, and take you behind our thinking of why we've put it on the buy list six separate times in the last few months...

Here's a snippet of our first post covering Axie when we were buying it in July:

There aren’t many coins breaking out to all-time highs right now, but AXS is one of them.

We just had to break the rules with this one – it’s currently trading at a tiny market cap of $750M, so it’s $250M shy of joining our Crypto universe. So keep in mind that this one is much smaller than what we...

This week we’re looking at a long setup in the Infrastructure sector. Nifty Infra continues to display strength across different time frames. One of the stocks that stands out from this sector has been featured here.

Let's take a look at this stock.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in mid-July last year to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

To quote the great philosopher Tupac Shakur, "All Eyez On Me". 

Makaveli - The Don would agree, if he were here, that the focus needs to be on the US Dollar and Interest Rates.

The implications will most likely impact every single asset class you've ever heard of.

Here's the recent US Dollar strength as it runs into former resistance and key Fibonacci retracement:

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

The stock market had a good day. But Commodities have had a great year.

The relentless bid for commodities doesn't stop.

Here is the CRB Commodities Index going out at new 6-year highs:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Energy is the clear leader in the commodity markets right now. Our equally-weighted energy index is up 13.76% over the trailing month and 6.58% in the last five days.

The emerging strength from this group is supported by a rising rate environment that could be just getting started.

So, crude oil to 100 dollars and natural gas to 9?

Maybe! But before we get ahead of ourselves, there are still plenty of mixed signals and divergences that need to be resolved.

One that stands out is the lack of confirming price action between economically sensitive commodities. Let’s take a look!

Here’s a chart of Crude Oil futures, Copper futures, and Copper Miners $COPX:

All three are consolidating within an underlying uptrend. But there’s one major difference.

...

This is the video recording of our October 1, 2021, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

This is the video recording of October 1st 2021 Weekly Jam Session with Sean McLaughlin.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Index-level volatility picked up in September and by month-end the S&P 500 has experienced its first 5% drawdown in nearly a year. Beneath the surface, we’ve been seeing increasingly widespread and substantial pullbacks since early this year. More than 50% of NASDAQ stocks are more than 20% below their highs, and more than 20% are more than 50% below their highs. These percentages have been trending higher since February and reflect a market that has churned, corrected and seen a substantial amount of air come out of it since Q1. With the indexes themselves now catching down, Q4 could be when the average stock starts to get back in gear.

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday October 4th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall Of Famers list is composed of the 50 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the big US names on our original Hall Of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the 50 largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive in and take a look at what some of the largest stocks around the world are doing.

Here’s this week’s list:

And here’s how we arrived at it...

• We filtered out any names...

We've talked at length about the accumulation taking place on the part of larger trader cohorts.

To visualize these developments, we've primarily used all the on-chain metrics at our disposal. Another way to go about doing this is by going directly to the order book.

Using heatmaps of all the limit orders on crypto exchanges, we can get an idea of where traders are accumulating and where they're selling into strength. The more yellow the heatmap, the bigger the size of the orders.

This is the video recording of the September 30th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets

09/30/21 2PM ET

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Bond yields are breaking higher across the board. So, it’s essential to understand that some stocks do better amid rising rates, while others prosper in markets with low growth and low yields. 

For instance, cyclical and value stocks should outperform in a rising rate environment.

Meanwhile, growth, tech stocks, and any long-duration assets (bonds) typically lag. They become less attractive during periods where more economically sensitive areas offer more appealing opportunities.

And we’re already seeing this rotation into the rising rate beneficiaries, while growth stocks have come under pressure in recent weeks.

In today’s post, we’ll look at market internals of these groups to see what they suggest about recent price action.

We can compare growth to cyclicals by analyzing the ratio of Large-Cap Tech $XLK to Energy $XLE.

And we can further illustrate this growth-versus-value relationship through a variety of derivatives. They all tell similar stories.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

We see what we are thinking about. The first time I really became aware of this was a few years ago after we bought our Subaru. I had gone from not thinking at all about Subarus to driving one and now I was surprised to see how many other Subarus were on the road. I realized quickly that I was not an automotive trend-setter, but just being impacted by the way our brains work.   

It happened again recently, though this time with a more exciting car. 

I flew into Reagan National airport in Washington, DC, on a recent trip to visit family in Maryland. 

I met up with my sister when I arrived and headed over to the rental car counter. I had reserved a four-door mid-sized model but what I got instead was a two-door sports car. A convertible Ford Mustang, to be exact. To be clear, they didn’t force the car on me. The agent asked if it would be okay and I quickly agreed.