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Chart of the Day: Bulls Finally Got it Done

August 14, 2022

Today's Chart of the Day was a unanimous decision internally.

How can it not be this one???

Every single week in 2022 we've seen more stocks hitting new lows than stocks hitting new highs.

In bull markets we see the exact opposite of that.

Well, this week the bulls finally got it done. For the first time all year we saw more stocks hitting new highs than new lows.

It wasn't by much. But they pulled it off.

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Commodities, Ya Dig?

August 12, 2022

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

It doesn’t matter where you look: Commodities are digging in, finding support, and reclaiming key levels.

Grains, softs, base metals, and energy have all stopped going down. Even gold is bouncing off critical levels of former support.

But it’s not just the fact the commodity correction is hitting the pause button that’s important.

It’s where it's happening.

Let’s take a look at a few charts.

First we have cotton futures:

Cotton completed a monster base, breaking to fresh 10-year highs last October. A strong advance took hold during the following months.

But it was answered by a near-vertical decline back into its prior range.

After falling more than 45% from its May peak, cotton is reclaiming a key level of former resistance marked by its 2014, 2018, and 2021 highs.

That shelf of former highs kept a lid on cotton prices for almost a decade. And the 2018 highs...

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The Hall of Famers (08-12-2022)

August 12, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that which you can check out here.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

  • We filtered out any laggards that are down 5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. 
  • We sorted the remaining...
Hot Corner Insider

The Inside Scoop (08-12-2022)

August 12, 2022

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Everything has been working lately, as the weight of the evidence continues to stack up in favor of the bottom being in for the current cycle.

The short-term breadth thrusts in late July were among the first signs of it. This week, we’re seeing new highs spread out to longer time frames, such as our 63-day indicators.

The percentage of stocks above their 200-day moving average has rebounded higher after undercutting the critical 15% level. This has marked significant bottoms in the past.

Participation has spread beyond growth stocks over the near term, as materials and energy are also rallying and reclaiming key levels. We can say the same for crypto.

And, most importantly, we’re finally seeing upside resolutions. Not only that, they’re holding.

Some of our favorite charts right now are short-term reversal patterns. We’re seeing them all over in growth stocks.

Let’s talk about some we’re buying.

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

August 12, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

While many started to pay attention to the potential for equity market weakness well after the S&P 500 peaked back in January, a look beneath the surface showed that trouble had been brewing for a while. The percentage of stocks in the S&P indexes that were 20% or more below their highs stopped retreating in March of 2021 and started to rise over the second half of 2021. That intensified over the first half of 2022 and crescendoed to a peak in mid-June (at which point between 75% and 85% of stocks were in drawdowns of 20% or more). The pattern of higher highs and higher lows in this measure of stock market weakness is now being challenged. Already fewer stocks in the mid-cap S&P 400 are in 20% drawdowns than was the case in early June. Small-caps and large-caps aren’t far behind. Before sustained strength, we usually experience waning weakness. And that is what we are seeing right now.  

The All Star Momentum Scan

August 12, 2022

We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.

All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.

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HY Is Hitting Higher

August 11, 2022

From the Desk of  Ian Culley @Ianculley

More pieces of the puzzle are falling into place for the bulls.

We’ve been pounding the table about the dollar and rates for months, and now they’re starting to take shape.

On Wednesday, the US Dollar Index $DXY broke to fresh lows, violating a multi-month trend line.

And interest rates… well, they haven’t moved much. They continue to hold their range after peaking in June. 

As expected, stocks surged yesterday in response to a weaker dollar and stable bond market. 

But stocks aren’t the only risk assets on the rise. Investors are moving out on the risk curve and bidding up high-yield bonds, too.

Here’s a dual-pane chart of the Fallen Angel High-Yield Bond ETF $ANGL and the S&P 500 Index $SPX:

ANGL is one of our favorite high-yield bond ETFs because it contains the...

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Letting Profits (Cantaloupes) Run

August 11, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I don’t want to count my melons before they are ripe, but letting profits run in the garden looks like it’s going to pay off this year. 

Sorry for the mixed metaphors. This is what I’m talking about… 

I spotted a volunteer melon plant coming up next to the garage earlier this summer. In gardenspeak, a “volunteer” is something that comes up on its own, not because of a seed that was intentionally planted. It’s not in the best spot and I could have pulled it out right away. 

But I didn’t. I let it grow for a little while. Then a little while longer. Now I have an awkwardly-situated cantaloupe plant that covers 30 square feet. 

So why did I leave it?  

All Star Charts Crypto

Does ETHBTC Represent Risk Appetite?

August 11, 2022

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

In recent weeks, we've found ourselves revisiting the following question: Is Ethereum outperforming Bitcoin a bullish characteristic for the asset class?

We addressed this question a year ago. The conclusion we reached back then was that, while ETH outperforming BTC is not a necessary condition for a bull market, it’s always an encouraging sign when we see it.

In light of the recent disparity in performance between ETH and BTC, we thought we'd re-examine this topic.

Let's get to it.

 

 

 

Insiders Still Love Energy Stocks

August 11, 2022

The largest insider buy on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by the executive chairman of Energy Transfer LP $ET, who revealed a purchase worth $12.6 million.

Director Matthew R. Cohler revealed an insider buy worth $991,484 in KKR & Co $KKR.

Stocks Make Higher Highs

August 11, 2022

A downtrend consists of a series of lower lows and lower highs.

But the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Russell2000 Small-cap Index are both making higher highs.

That's, by definition, not a downtrend.