We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The biggest Form 4 filing on today's hot list is from Catherine Spear, CEO of FIGS Inc $FIGS.

Spear reported the purchase of 790,000 FIGS shares, equivalent to $4.9 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

If the market can hold on to yesterday's low, I think there's potential we can head higher.

We really need to push past $SPY 400 with force and head straight to 405, then 408.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke again today, but the market could not get going to the upside.

The semiconductors have been very strong this week. That's usually a positive sign for the market.

Maybe they're decoupling; time will tell.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche

Investors had second thoughts about stocks last week, with sentiment dropping across the board. This week’s Investors Intelligence survey shows a healthy return to optimism as bears dropped to their lowest level in over a year and the bull-bear spread moved back above its August high.   

Why It Matters: Stocks tend to do well when persistent pessimism fades. In such an environment increasing investor optimism is a bullish tailwind for stocks. The shift from pessimism to optimism is not always a one-way street. Consolidation along the way is to be expected but a return to ex excessive pessimism would not be a healthy development. The latest II data suggests last week’s sentiment shift was the former rather than the later. We will look to the AAII & NAAIM (released later this week) for confirmation that investors were just catching their breath.  

In this week’s Sentiment Report we look at how investors are responding to the recent price volatility and how that volatility may work...

Today's trade is going to leverage the rising volatilities introduced into the stock market this week thanks to testimony from the Federal Reserve Chairman (I've been told).

When markets get dicey and volatility rises, I like to look at my universe of Sector ETFs and choose one that is both displaying higher relative options prices than its peers and looks set up for rangebound trading action over the next 3-5 weeks.

An ETF near the top of my list is the Materials sector ETF $XLB. We're going to bet on the recent sloppy trading action to continue sideways for a bit, and we're going to sell a delta-neutral spread to collect premium and position ourselves to earn the decay.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

We’ve been looking out for this filing since last week!

Right on time, Uncle Warren strikes again with the Berkshire put in Occidental Petroleum $OXY.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market hit the breaks yesterday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s speech.

Powell is to speak again today, which could make for sloppy trading.

This is the video recording of the March 8, 2023, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our March Monthly Strategy Session on Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

It's the weekly currency edition of What the FICC?

Dollar and rates were big themes last year – rising in tandem – and continue to be as we head into March.

It shouldn't come as a surprise as the next chart reveals the crux of the story…

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What year is it? 

Is it 2023 or 2022? Because it’s starting to feel like last year all over again…

No, Will Smith hasn’t slapped anyone (that I’m aware of). And I’m confident Bennifer 2.0 is going strong (solely based on Superbowl commercials).

But that’s not my concern. Here’s what does have my attention: the dollar and rates. 

These were big themes last year – rising in tandem – and continue to be as we head into March.

It shouldn't come as a surprise as the next chart reveals the crux of the story…

Check out the overlay chart of the US dollar index $DXY and the US 10-year yield $TNX with a rolling 126-day correlation in the lower pane:

Notice the consistent positive correlation between the US benchmark rate and the dollar since fall 2021. It all began as Federal Reserve officials swept...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a very volatile day, as we had Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaking.

And he's speaking tomorrow too.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Dynamic Portfolio Update: Our asset allocation models are tilting away from commodities, so we sold GLD in our cyclical portfolio (and replaced it with mid-cap equity exposure). With tactical risks rising, we raised some cash in our tactical opportunity portfolio.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

As good as the market looked in January, it looked that bad in February. The month began with the technical conditions for the re-birth of a bull market being met, but by the end of the month there was still little evidence of bull market behavior. If the Q4 turn is going to prove resilient, it’s time for the bulls to step up and show that the path of least resistance is indeed higher. That means firmly embracing a rally that has faltered under the ongoing weight of macro concerns and is on the cusp of breaking down.

Our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard fills in the details and includes a few charts that have our attention heading into March. 

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is: