From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

In today's Morning Briefing, I wrote about $SPY and $TQQQ trade ideas.

Both targets were reached. SPY ran right into resistance at 387 and then pulled back, as was alerted.

This is the video recording of our December 21, 2022, Inside Scoop Weekly Strategy Session.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Seems like almost everyone has a 2023 earnings estimate for the S&P 500. The thinking seems to be that if you are going to make up a year-end guess at price you should come up with one for earnings as well. That’s not a game I want to play.     

Why It Matters: It’s not the overall levels that matter, but whether those levels are being revised higher or revised lower. Earnings estimates for more and more companies were being revised lower over the second half of 2021 and the first half of 2022. That trend has stabilized  since mid-year. If the worst case for 2023 is priced in, there is room for both price and earnings revisions to move higher. If it is not, then the lows established over the second half of 2022 are not likely to hold. Remember, when it comes to adapting to incoming information, it’s not a question of whether it is good or bad, but whether it is better or worse than expected.

In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a closer look at how investors are feeling...

We've covered before how much I like buying stocks that are making new all-time highs. I like them, even more, when I can buy call options because premiums are low. And it's a cherry on top when the stock pays a meaty and steady dividend which lends price action support over the long run!

Today's trade checks all these boxes.

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The strategy was simple: long Coinbase $COIN above the May lows while cutting our losses below there.

And, lo and behold, it took out those pivot lows. Like any responsible trader using good risk-management practices, we took the loss on the chin and got out of the position.

We were either plain wrong or got the timing off on the trade, so we stuck to our plan and obeyed the price action. We thought the stock was good for a bounce.

But, clearly, COIN had other ideas.

Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama is back on our list after filing his first Periodic Transaction Report since early November.

Here’s what Sen. Tuberville is buying:

• Intel Corporation $INTC ($100,000 - $250,000)
• Activision Blizzard $ATVI ($100,000 - $250,000)
• Cleveland-Cliffs $CLF ($50,000 - $100,000)

While Activision is a new name for Tuberville, these are the second purchases he has made in both Intel and Cleveland-Cliffs in recent months.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

As I write this note, the futures are gapping higher.

The cash index could open roughly at $SPX 3,850 -- that is, as long as we stay higher.

Thanks to everyone who joined us live last night on our Mid-month Conference Call.

We had a lot to talk about.

There are plenty of opportunities out there to profit. These are exciting times for sure.

One of the charts I discussed was the performance of different types of stocks since the market bottomed in June.

Here's each sector's performance since June 16th, which was the day that the NYSE new lows list peaked:

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

This week we're looking into the Healthcare Sector. On a broader level, it is a weak sector, but a few stocks are moving higher along strong segments of the market.

This is the video recording of the December 2022 Mid-month Conference Call.

We discussed:

• The S&P500 & DJ Industrial Avg below overhead supply
• Median Stock is above Key Long-term Support
• Consumer Staples & Low Volatility Stocks outperforming
• Performance of Sectors since Stocks Bottomed June 16th
• Waiting for an expansion of the new highs list
• The implications of a stronger Japanese Yen
• Dollar weakening vs Developed Market & Emerging Market Currencies
• 4-year Presidential Cycle Bullish Sweet Spot
• Small-caps to buy that are outperforming
• Bonds making new highs
• Interest rates impact on Growth Stocks
• Which Energy Stocks To Buy Now
• The relentless bid in Gold & Precious Metals
• Which Gold & Silver stocks to own
• Sugar and Soybeans breaking out
• Copper Underperforming Gold
• Chinese Stocks leading the way
• European Financials outperforming U.S. Financials
• Industrials Leading - which ones to buy
• Mega-cap Healthcare as a defensive trade
• ...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We saw a decent snapback in the market early today then a late-morning fade.

This $SPX 3,800 level is support for now.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Dividend Aristocrats are easily some of the most desirable investments on Wall Street.

These are the names that have increased dividends for at least 25 years, providing steadily increasing income to long-term-minded shareholders.

As you can imagine, the companies making up this prestigious list are some of the most recognizable brands in the world. Coca-Cola, Walmart, and Johnson & Johnson are just a few of the household names making the cut.

Here at All Star Charts, we like to stay ahead of the curve. That's why we've turned our attention to the future aristocrats.

In an effort to seek out the next generation of the cream-of-the-crop dividend plays, we curate a list of stocks that have raised their payouts every year for five to nine years.

We call them the Young Aristocrats, and the idea is that these are "stocks that pay you to make money."

Imagine if years of consistent dividend growth and high momentum and relative strength had a baby, leaving you with the best of the emerging dividend giants that are outperforming the averages.

By adding our technical...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The Bank of Japan hasn’t officially raised rates and is continuing to buy Japanese government bonds. But its surprise decision to stop defending the 0.25% ceiling on 10-year bond yields has reverberated through the global financial markets.

Why It Matters: While bond yields around the world climbed to new highs over the course of 2022, the Japanese 10-year yield was held at 0.25% through active intervention on the part of the Bank of Japan. Funding those purchases kept the Yen under pressure for most of the year. The de facto rate hike that allows the 10-year yield to move up to 0.50% brought strength in the Yen and weakness in the US dollar. Precious metals caught a bid and bond yields around the world moved higher. The yield on the German 10-year bond is approaching the 10-year high it reached in October and US yields are climbing as well. The lasting impact on equities from this Bank of Japan pivot is clear. A weaker dollar could be a tailwind for stocks (they...

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

What a sloppy tape.

Don't let these drawdowns fool you; there is nothing stopping this market from getting worse. Over the last week, we've seen even more downside participation manifest, with many coins taking out their most recent November pivot lows.

It's just terrible.

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by Durable Capital Partners.

The hedge fund reported a purchase of $7.6 million of Duolingo $DUOL stock.