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A Quiet Week… With One Big Setup 📊

July 6, 2025

Welcome to The Weekly Beat.

Earnings season may be winding down, but we’re still finding plenty of valuable signals.

Last week provided us with fresh confirmation from a few key individual stocks and industry groups. We saw a blowout quarter from Nike, strength in homebuilders, and another strong reaction from Constellation Brands despite a headline miss.

But with the calendar thinning out, this week will be one of the quietest stretches of the season.

That gives us time to zoom out and reassess the biggest winners, strongest trends, and highest-probability setups heading into Q3.

In this week’s recap, we’ll walk through last week’s most significant moments. We'll also preview one small-cap earnings event we’re watching closely.

What happened last week 👇

  • Monday:
    • Nike $NKE reported a double beat and rallied over 15% for its best earnings reaction since 2021.
    • The women's basketball segment grew more than 50% for the fiscal year, and the management team issued better-than-expected guidance.
  • Tuesday:
    • There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions, but the Cybersecurity industry is standing out to us.
    • We discussed the technical and fundamental bull case for the industry. In addition, we outlined CloudFlare $NET, which has compounded revenues at over 30% annually for years.
  • Wednesday:
    • There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions, but the Homebuilder industry is standing out to us.
    • We discussed the technical and fundamental bull case for the industry. In addition, we outlined PulteGroup $PHM, which is the 3rd largest homebuilder in the U.S., and the stock has been rewarded for 9 of its last 11 earnings reports.
  • Thursday:
    • Constellation Brands $STZ reported a double miss, but traded 4.5% higher in response. They reported a free cash flow of $444M, a 41% year-over-year increase.
    • They were the #1 dollar share gainer in the beer category, with 6 of the top 15 dollar share-gaining brands. In addition to the solid quarter, the management team reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 EPS outlook of $12.60-$12.90 and its operating cash flow target of $2.7-$2.8B.
  • Friday:
    • The U.S. stock market was closed for the 4th of July holiday.

What's happening next week 👇

Next week will be another quiet week in terms of new earnings reports.

We'll hear from Delta Air Lines $DAL, Conagra Brands $CAG, Levi Strauss & Co. $LEVI, PriceSmart $PSMT, and more.

The earnings event we're looking forward to the most is Byrna Technologies $BYRN.

Before the opening bell on Thursday, the market expects the company to report revenues of $28 million and earnings per share of $0.08. 

The $750M supplier of self-defense weapons is on the cusp of resolving a massive accumulation pattern. We think it's primed for a gap-n-go next week.

Here's the BYRN setup ahead of Thursday's earnings event 👇

Byrna Technologies is knocking on the door of a massive breakout, and it could all come down to this week’s earnings report. 

The chart tells us this name has been under accumulation for the better part of two years. 

Now, with the stock coiling just beneath multi-year highs, it wouldn’t take much to trigger an explosive gap-and-go move higher. 

A strong quarter could be the catalyst that finally clears the overhead supply around $33.

While most investors may not be familiar with this company, its business model should sound familiar.

That’s because Byrna is quietly following in the footsteps of industry juggernaut Axon Enterprise $AXON, a $62B behemoth best known for its TASER weapons, body cameras, and cloud-based evidence management platforms.

AXON has been in a secular uptrend for years 👇

Axon has delivered a masterclass in long-term execution. 

Over the past decade, it has compounded its top line by nearly 30% per year through the launch of new products, international expansion, and the steady acquisition of law enforcement agencies and government clients.

Byrna, with a market cap still under $1B, is just getting started, but it’s attacking the same secular theme. 

Its products appeal not only to law enforcement but also to civilians and private security, opening a wide runway for growth.

If the fundamentals continue to improve and Thursday's earnings event confirms what the chart is already hinting at, BYRN could be on the verge of an Axon-style uptrend.

The catch-up trade from $1B to $60B doesn’t happen overnight… but this week’s earnings could be step one.

Thank you for reading.

- The Beat Report Team 


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