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Beat & Bleed 🩸

April 29, 2025

Roper Technologies $ROP is out with another double beat, but you wouldn’t know it if you looked at the stock.

The industrial tech firm topped revenue and EPS expectations again, continuing its track record of solid execution. 

Revenue hit $1.88 billion, and EPS reached $4.78, both above consensus. 

On paper, this was a textbook beat...

But the market response? Brutal. 

Shares fell over 1%, extending a trend of negative earnings reactions. The stock has been punished after 6 of its last 7 earnings reports.

At this point, it’s not about the numbers—it’s about expectations

Investors seem to be pricing in perfection, and anything less—even a clean beat—is getting sold. 

Whether it’s valuation concerns, slowing organic growth, or just poor sentiment, the message is clear: Wall Street isn’t buying the story, no matter how consistent it looks.

This is textbook earnings punishment.

So what else did we learn from yesterday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Here are the latest earnings reports from the S&P 500 👇 

*...

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[Gold Rush] Gold’s Getting Crowded 🪙

April 28, 2025

Do you remember when The Economist magazine cover had a rocket ship covered in United States dollars last year?

They said the United States was "The envy of the world."

It was so cringe...

The dollar got blasted over the next several months, and the U.S. stock market had its worst quarter in decades relative to the rest of the world.

Like any other type of market analysis, fading magazine covers is more of an art than a science.

We don't want to fade a trend just because there's a magazine cover.

The dollar was extremely overbought in the prior example, and the COT positioning tipped us off to a potential move in the opposite direction.

We waited for the market to confirm our bias, managed our risk, and made a ton of money.

Fast forward to today, and the latest Barron's magazine cover highlighted a stack of Gold bars and said:

"Investors are loading up on the metal as a haven in chaotic times. How long can it last?"

 

This comes as Gold futures are running into...

This Telecom Giant Got Crushed For Reporting A Double Beat 📉🐻

April 28, 2025

Not all double beats are created equal. Just ask T-Mobile US $TMUS...

The wireless giant delivered a double beat this quarter, topping both revenue and EPS expectations. 

Revenue hit $20.89 billion, and EPS came in at $2.58, both ahead of analyst estimates. 

By the numbers, it was a clean win.

But the market had other plans...

Despite the strong report, T-Mobile stock got crushed, falling over 11%. This was the stock's worst earnings-day reaction in company history.

Why the disconnect? 

Investors zeroed in on softer guidance for 2025, lingering concerns around customer growth momentum, and heavier competitive pressure in the wireless space. 

Good results simply weren’t enough to outweigh growing forward-looking anxiety.

Strong fundamentals, terrible price action: not the combo bulls want to see. 

When a name sells off this hard on good news, it’s a clear signal that something bigger is bothering the street.

This is the kind of stock that we want to sell.

So what else did we learn from Friday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Here...