These 5 Stocks will set the tone for a critical week.
August 4, 2025
Buckle up for Earnings
Coming off a week marked by negative headlines (Tariff Madness, Lousy Jobs, and the biggest index declines since May), the stock market is heading straight into the heart of the real earnings season on the back foot.
For all the talk of the gigantic rally since April 8th, the S&P500 is up mid-single digits for 2025 and seemingly hanging by a thread heading into what are historically the most volatile months of the year.
Last Monday, traders were hunting for the next meme stocks. Today, pros are lightly mocking the higher futures and waiting for the all-but-inevitable re-test of Friday's lows.
With hundreds of companies set to report this week, here are the 5 I'm watching most closely as "Tells" for the market's next big move.
Freshpet (already Beat and Guided Lower)
Already this morning Freshpet reported a huge earnings beat combined with some concerning comments about the back half of the year. I'm listening to the call right now, I type. Freshpet, which sells refrigerated dog food that costs about 2x kibble crushed EPS estimates but missed on revenue. The company also guided lower for the current quarter and pulled long-term guidance entirely "to match the environment we are seeing today".
That last part is a red flag. You don't pull permanent guidance because of short-term conditions. This is the type of report that would have sent $FRPT much higher in a great tape and would take 15% out of the shares under worse conditions. There is nothing more discretionary on earth than high-end pet food (unless you're talking about pet Halloween costumes). Suffice it say this is lot more cautious than you'd expect from a company that just nearly doubled EPS estimates:
FRPT shares are trying to rally, but there's a lot here not to like. Consider the shares a canary in the coal mine. No one is all that concerned about the canary itself, but if FRPT makes new 52-week lows off this consider it a sign of growing skepticism in the tape.
Hims & Hers: Monday Night
Is $HIMS a gimmicky, sort of sketchy place for primarily men to buy GLP-1 meds, erection drugs and testosterone without the hassle of going to a doctor or a distintermediator, taking healthcare out of the equation for consumers seeking relatively safe treatments? A little of both, actually.
Hims & Hers has unbelievable mrofits and repeat orders run somewhere over 80%, factors that were probably priced into the stock somewhere around $40 a share. Right around January HIMS started trading off momentum, emotion and almost every headline related to GLP drugs. Shares tripled to start the year, fell by over 60% then pushed back towards ATHs early last week before getting rugpulled by about 15%.
HIMS will almost certainly beat and likely guide higher tonight. Think of it as the anti-Freshpet. FRPT's price action reflects investor willingness to bet on the organic health of the consumer. HIMS reflects traders' willingness to bet on another leg of momentum higher for stocks where "valuation" is more of an idea than an equation.
TKO Group Holdings
You don't have to like professional wrestling. You don't have to like the UFC. But, if you're an investor, you absolutely have to respect a company that owns both organizations. TKO makes money from holding events, selling streaming rights, and generally monetizing every aspect of these once wildly inefficient operations.
Is that a good business? Over 113,000 people attended the WWE's Summer Slam over the weekend. The event aired on Peacock and actually got some organic buzz on social media. Better than that, TKO is still in the process of auctioning off various aspects of both the UFC and WWE to streaming organizations desperate to create events with exactly that type of ability to tap into the social zeitgeist in an age where only the NFL commands real-time attention.
TKO is an arms dealer in the streaming wars. TKO has deals with Peacock and Netflix but is wide open to the idea of selling to rights for incremental shows to the highest bidder. The company doesn't look cheap, but, as a lifelong follower of wrestling and UFC I'm unbelievably optimistic about the degree to which both organizations can be monetized way beyond the levels being achieved before they were bought out by TKO.
Ultra-violence, both pretend and real, might seem like lowbrow entertainment but, to paraphrase Twain, more people watch a good fight than a great opera. I've been long TKO for over a year. I'd be shocked if the company reported anything other than monster cashflows and a robust market for selling content to streamers. That should be good enough for the stock.
Disney: Wednesday Morning
Last quarter Disney posted a blowout quarter and unveiled a $60b plan to re-invigorate experiences, including $10b going towards the buildout of cruise ships and a cash grab deal to build a park in the Middle East.
The thing with Disney is, the company needs at least one of its divisions to be clicking on some level to fund the greater business. Cable has been "problematic" for years. Pixar of today has no resemblance to the beloved creative giant of years past and not all the marketing in the world could save Final 4 from a HUGE 2nd weekend drop-off, suggesting the world's appetite for caps and heroes has been strip-mined for years to come.
With CEO Bob Iger set to step down Disney will be pulling out all the stops to post a solid few quarters on his way out the door. Which sounds silly but, trust me, this is a company built on controlling the narrative. Disney has been leaning on Parks pretty heavily over the last couple years. If Freshpet is having trouble selling $15 dog food how are families feeling about spending $5,000 or more on a week in a Disney Park? How about foreign travelers?
Even if you don't follow Disney it's worth listening to the call just to hear Iger's magic. The man is a Jedi of mind control and spin.
Disney's chart looks like it's going to need a little magic.
Opendoor: Tuesday PM
My friend Eric Jackson has been sort of caught up in a bit of market insanity oven this one in the last few weeks. That tends to happen with a stock goes fro 50c to $5 in just over a week.
Opendoor is a billion dollar company with a terrifying chart. Is the world really ready for another meme stock mania? I asked Eric via Twitter DM:
Here's his response, unedited:
For more, follow Eric on Twitter @EricJackson. In terms of $OPEN shares, I'm openly terrified of it, long or short. But it's good theater and a great meme stock "tell" for the week.
