From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The talking heads are about to call the top in commodities.

It’s coming, so we might as well prepare. 

In fact, it’ll only get louder if the US dollar follows crude’s lead…

Crude oil and the dollar have traded in sync for a few years now (mainly due to the strong positive correlation between the buck and interest rates).

During Q3 of last year, the energy sector rallied with the US dollar while most of the market fell under pressure. 

This relationship has been so strong we actually like swapping bonds for energy stocks in the new sixty-forty portfolio.

But crude oil, interest rates, and the US dollar have rallied for almost four straight months. 

They’re all due for a correction.

Here’s crude oil leading the way, violating a multi-month trendline:

If the dollar tracks lower here, sellers will likely trounce black gold. Energy stocks will follow.

Ding-dong, inflation is dead! 

Which...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

So far, the dollar-yen is playing its part with a little help from Tokyo.

Falling dollar, falling rates, falling dollar-yen…

That’s the mantra reverberating throughout the market. 

But will interest rates get on board?

Check out the US 10-year yield climbing within a four-month channel: 

The 10-year is reacting to the channel’s upper boundary after stalling 25 basis points short of its October 2023 peak. 

Those former highs and rising trading range mark a logical area to witness a near-term pullback.

Plus, interest rates are trending within a broader corrective wave, and momentum is posting a bearish divergence – two data points...

There's been a lot of "bad" news thrown in Tesla's direction this year. And it's played out in the stock's price. But here's the thing -- bad news is often the worst at the bottom.

And zooming out on a longer time frame, it looks like $TSLA shares may be beginning to turn the corner.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review:

1. New position in XLK.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exited XLB at our profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today's list comes via two Form 4 filings by Liam K. Griffin, chief executive officer and president of Skyworks Solutions $SWKS.

Griffin reported a total purchase of roughly $1 million in SWKS shares.

The dramatic decrease in volatility ($VIX is a good proxy for this) across the board over the past ten or so trading days is taking the starch out of my inclination for looking at delta-neutral options credit spreads. It’s getting harder to find good candidates. They are still out there, but I need to be more selective.

That said, I am open to getting long select names here. But the types of setups we’re more likely to find are ones where stocks come off nicely formed bases, rather than breaking out through key levels of resistance or all-time highs.

It doesn’t mean these setups are any more or less likely to work, it just requires a different mindset and tools.

Luckily the options market gives us a lot of tools.

I discuss this in today’s Options Jam Session, as well as a teachable lesson in a trade that got away from us:

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes via two Form 4 filings by Liam K. Griffin, chief executive officer and president of Skyworks Solutions $SWKS.

Griffin reported a total purchase of roughly $1 million in SWKS shares.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review:

1. New position in XLV.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. No exits since the last report.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The biggest insider buy on today's list comes via two Form 4 filings by Warren Buffett.

Buffett revealed an additional purchase of $7.9 million in The Liberty SiriusXM Group $LSXMK.

Last night was my favorite thing that we do around here.

We had our LIVE Monthly Charts Strategy Session for Premium Members of ASC.

This hour-long, 150-chart Monthly ritual allows us to take a step back, zoom out, and identify the most important primary trends across markets.

There is nothing we do here that adds as much value to my process than preparing for this call.

Premium Members can watch the replay here and download all the slides.

If you're not a Premium Member yet, you can ...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza and Alfonso Depablos

The biggest insider buy on today’s list comes via two Form 4 filings by Warren Buffett.

Buffett revealed an additional purchase of $7.9 million in The Liberty SiriusXM Group $LSXMK.

This is the video recording of our May 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that are exhibiting the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week, via multiple reports.

Now, we're also highlighting lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We...

This is the video recording of the May 1, 2024, Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The Japanese government isn’t playing games.

Currency crisis or not, Tokyo is willing to defend the yen in the open market. It's proven this multiple times over the past three years, and today’s FOMC-related volatility will likely test its resolve. 

Considering previous yen-buying interventions, the dollar, interest rates, and the dollar-yen pair could be headed lower in the coming months.

Before we dive into the yen, here's a quick update on the action in the euro and pound.

The euro retested its breakdown level from earlier this month, forming a bear flag:

A close below 1.06 completes the flag pattern and sets a rough downside objective of 1.0450.

The British pound also pulled back this week:

Instead of simply...

I'm mindful that coming into this afternoon's Fed meeting lots can change following whatever is said after 2pm ET.

That said, there's a pretty compelling opportunity to sell some premium in the gold space, at strikes that are comfortably far away, increasing our odds of success.