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Introducing... The Hall Of Famers

September 25, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft--with market caps in excess of $2T--to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It’s got all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we’re developing a separate universe for that, and we’ll be sharing it with you soon.

So, The Hall of Famers is easy.

We simply take our list of 100 names and then apply our technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here's this week's list:

And here's how we arrived at it:

  • We filtered out any stocks that were below their May 10th high as this is when new 52-week highs peaked for the S&P 500
  • Then we sorted the...
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Breadth Trends Signal a Healthy Digestion

September 24, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Whether we’re talking about stocks, commodities, currencies, or even the bond market, things have been a total mess. It’s no secret, and you’re probably tired of hearing it by now.

Trust me, we’re just as tired of seeing it.

So, as these choppy conditions test our patience and discipline, why not use this opportunity to take a step back and examine where we’ve come from, where we are now, and where we’re likely headed.

In today’s post, we’re going to do just that by revisiting and analyzing some of our favorite breadth indicators and discussing what some of them are suggesting for commodities over the long run.

Let’s dig into it!

First, we need to understand that a breadth thrust isn’t a singular event. It’s a process that builds upon itself as a new bull cycle unfolds.

These thrusts in participation don’t all just happen overnight. Instead, they develop over shorter time frames at first and eventually culminate with a broad expansion in new longer-term highs.

Using the stock market as an example, we saw our...

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Who's Ready for Rising Rates?

September 24, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

I was talking to the team earlier this week and mentioned that I was having a hard time writing. Grant and Ian were quick to remind me that it's probably because "nothing new is happening!"

They were right. Until now...

We finally got a major resolution in what we consider one of the most important charts in the world these days.

I'm talking about the US 10-year yield reclaiming that critical 1.40% level this week. And this begs the question as to what a rising rate environment might mean for investor portfolios.

Well, one thing we know for sure is we want to stay away from bonds... unless we're shorting them.

But how do we want to position ourselves in the stock market if yields are breaking out?

It's simple really. Some stocks do better with rising/higher rates, while others thrive in markets characterized by low growth and low yields. If this is the beginning of a fresh move higher for yields, then we want to be focused on buying the stocks that are likely to benefit the most.

It all goes back to the global growth, reflation, and reopening trade...

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[Options Premium] Making Money By Hand

September 24, 2021

The ASC team did their monthly conference call this week, where they rip though a million charts and highlight the things we need to pay attention to -- the trends, the divergences, and particular setups in stocks that we like.

The blizzard of information they throw at us can be overwhelming at times. This is why you come to me to cull through it all and find my favorite setups that can be played with options.

Today's pick comes out of that call and its focused on the small business side of things.

[PLUS] Weekly Observations & One Chart for the Weekend

September 24, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The story this week was bond yields and the mounting evidence that they are ready to move higher. 10-year yields in the US and Germany have climbed to their highest levels since July. The US 10-year T-Note yield has broken above 1.40% and could soon have 1.75% again in its sights. A 2-handle by the end of the year would not be surprising. Except for the May/June time period, German yields are the least negative they have been since crossing the zero threshold in mid-2019. These moves may reflect inflation expectations, but with the rise in the 2-year T-Note yield this week (highest level since March 2020) it is also the bond market taking seriously the possibility that the Fed will soon be joining the 30% of global central banks that have already begun to raise interest rates. For investors, this could be an opportunity to rotate back into cyclical sectors that do well in rising rate environments.

The Return of High Beta?

September 24, 2021

High-beta stocks are hitting new multi-month highs relative to low volatility.

This is the opposite of what would be happening if the world was about to come to an end.

The ratio between High Beta stocks and Low Volatility stock basically stopped going up last February.

Is Zee Ready to Zoom?

September 24, 2021

Congratulations to those holding positions in Zee Entertainment, for you, have been rewarded! Well, at least for now.

Zee has been notoriously stubborn for remaining sideways for all of seventeen months now. That's a long time, considering several stocks have grown two-fold, three-fold at the least.

But Zee has also been a part of a sector that has consistently underperformed the market.

But have things changed with the move we saw in Zee over the past two weeks?

Maybe...

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More Of The Same

September 23, 2021

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Grant Hawkridge @granthawkridge

Considering the selling pressure in recent weeks, we were very excited to take a look at our breadth indicators today to see if we finally saw some downside expansion worth pointing out. Spoiler alert: There was nothing there.

Being as we're in a sideways market, we're always on the lookout for a change in character in internals that might suggest some resolutions are finally on the horizon. And since bears have been driving stocks lower since early this month, our focus is on new short-term lows. 

With the S&P experiencing some volatility and revisiting its 50-day moving average this week, did we finally get that "fall day?"

Two things we've been hitting on ad nauseam for over a quarter now are the consistent lack of new lows and the fact that most stocks have already corrected beneath the surface.

Today, we're going to revisit both of these key themes and see where we currently stand.

Let’s...

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: Confessions of a Fed-Watcher

September 23, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

I'll admit it. I'm a Fed-watcher from way back. I enjoy it as much as anyone, and probably more than most (especially those within the All Star Charts community). 

While I never had to analyze the weekly money supply numbers to figure out what the Fed was doing, I've remained attentive as the Fed has revamped its mode of communication with the market time and again.

The latest iteration -- a written statement and press conference after every FOMC meeting coupled with summary economic projections released four times a year -- reflects the Fed's desire for transparency. It also supports the belief that forward guidance is a powerful tool at a time when interest rates are stuck near zero.

Market participants listen, absorb the message and the forecasts, and react. We did this dance again this week.

Here’s the latest batch of forecasts from the Fed:

Bitcoin's Bear Trap

September 23, 2021

Is this it?

Are the bears trapped, and now we rally on higher?

As we've said for those with shorter-term time horizons, there's nothing wrong with taking a swing if Bitcoin's above these lows.

The bears in the derivs are growing too, with funding rates across all exchanges falling back into the negative territory despite Bitcoin's recovery into the day.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

September 22, 2021

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Optimism has begun to cool as sentiment relieves the excesses of early summer. Yet, we are a far cry from a complete unwind that cyclical damage suggests is necessary. As investors become more risk-averse, we are looking for evidence that pessimism has become widespread and excessive (more II bears than bulls, NAAIM Exposure Index reading below 30, ETF outflows close to or below zero on a 4-week basis, and a daily close in the VIX greater than 30). Though there is certainly an increased level of caution and concern among market participants, we haven’t seen a degree of fear or pessimism in any of our indicators that point to the warranted rebalance. For now, risks remain elevated as sentiment swings toward pessimism.

 

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Risk Appetite In Retreat

My son is playing soccer right now, and one of the things I hear over and over from the coach...

[Video] Options Trade of the Week w/ Sean & Strazza | Neutral Russel 2000 $IWM

September 22, 2021

On September 22nd, Sean and Strazza hopped on a Twitter Live Stream to discuss a recent trade idea for All Star Charts Options Members.

Here's the play:

"I like an $IWM November 200/205/235/240 Iron Condor for an approximately $1.80 credit. This means I’ll be short the 205 puts and 235 calls, while protected by the 200 puts and the 240 calls. This is a defined risk trade where the most I can lose is the maximum possible value of the spread (distance between short and long strikes — $5.00) minus the credit we receive at initiation ($1.80) which equals $3.20."

To learn more about the trade and the thinking behind it, click below to watch a replay of the Live Stream.

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The Avalanche Autumn

September 22, 2021

Have you ever held a beach ball underwater and pressed down?

You can feel the pressure on your arms - the beachball is trying everything to float back up.

So what happens when you let go? It jumps into the air!

Once that pressure holding it down eases, it has nowhere to go but up.

The market is the exact same.

When everything's selling indiscriminately, we want to look for the sectors, stocks, or in this case, cryptocurrencies that are bucking the trend and pushing up against your arms.

So what's going to happen when that selling, that force holding the beach ball gives up?

It's gonna shoot higher!

That stock or cryptocurrency closing the day higher in the face of broad distribution is likely to be the next leader when that force holding everything down subsides.

We saw this take place with Solana in August, and we know how that turned out...

Now that the market finds itself beaten and bruised over the last few weeks, we need to ask the same question - where's the relative strength?

[Options] Fading Index Volatility

September 22, 2021

With volatility rising this week, I've been on the hunt for opportunities to "safely" sell some premium.

While there is no such thing as a sure bet in the markets, selling elevated premium in rangebound securities is one of the closest things we will find to that idea.

I was chatting with my partner Steve Strazza this morning and when I told him what I was looking for, he immediately responded: "Oh -- you want $IWM. That is the very definition of sideways action."

Sure enough, he's right. And upon closer inspection of the options chains, there is some good premium offered for sale if we're willing to go a little further out in time.