From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended March 3, 2023. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual options activity, or simply our proprietary lists of trending tickers, there’s a lot of overlap.

The bottom line is there are a...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we’re currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Don’t Ignore Coal

Our equal-weighted custom index of the largest coal stocks reached new highs last week. If this breakout sticks, coal is a group we want to keep leaning on for long exposure.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was positive, with 79% of our list closing higher with a median return of 1.55%.
• Oil $CL was the winner, closing with a 4.40% gain.
• The biggest loser was The Volatility Index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -14.67%.
• There was a 9% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 15%.
• 4% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
• ...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Nice pop this morning in the indices, then we dropped.

I was hoping for $SPY to close the gap at 408 before the sell-off, but that didn't happen.

Silver is clawing its way back after breaking down from a month-long consolidation and undercutting a critical shelf of former lows.

As we talked about last week, it all comes down to risk appetite. Silver bid speaks to a healthy risk-seeking environment favoring all precious metals.

And that's what we saw last week...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Just a week ago, we captured the entire precious metals space in a single sentence: 

"Nothing bullish is happening for precious metals, while silver slides below multi-year support."

Is it really that simple?

Let’s take a look at an interesting development in precious metals that might change our minds…

Even with the impressive bounce heading into the weekend, the S&P 500 last week didn’t even get back up to its December high. Meanwhile nearly 10% of the industry groups in the S&P 1500 and more than 10% of global markets closed at new 52-week highs. That’s the longest new high list by the rest of the world in nearly a year.

More Context: The last decade has conditioned investors to look to the S&P 500 for leadership. Many have concluded that if US large-cap stocks are not showing strength there isn’t much opportunity in equities. That is becoming an expensive assumption. Our global equity work is tilting away from US exposure and within the US, large-cap growth is approaching max underweight. Getting stuck in the last decade’s paradigm means not seeing the strength that is emerging in this new environment. The S&P 500 continues to move sideways between its June low and August high and is contending with a challenging trend backdrop. It’s time to turn the page on that index and embrace new...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Just a week ago, we captured the entire precious metals space in a single sentence: 

“Nothing bullish is happening for precious metals, while silver slides below multi-year support.”

Is it really that simple?

Let’s take a look at an interesting development in precious metals that might change our minds…

Silver futures stopped falling.

Check out the daily chart below:

Silver is clawing its way back to the scene of the crime after breaking down from a month-long consolidation and undercutting a critical shelf of former lows.

For me, trading back above 21.50 represents a green light – not only for silver but the entire precious metals space.

As I stated last week, it all comes down to risk appetite. Silver bid speaks to a healthy risk-seeking environment favoring all precious metals.

On the flip side, a lack of enthusiasm for the higher-beta play (silver) reminds me that no position is perhaps the best position.

I can’t help but view last week’s action as constructive. Bulls needed to step and support price fast, and they did.

Yes, silver continues to...

A Racecar manufacturer is off to the races and it's time for us to get involved with a bullish bet, defined risk, and reasonable odds of success.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider buy on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by Russell J. Weiner, the CEO of Domino's Pizza $DPZ.

Weiner revealed a $1 million purchase of DPZ shares.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a big two-day move in the indices. $SPY went from 392 up to 404 -- now that's some power.

I think we can use a rest under the SPY 405 level then potentially push through to 408.

She was always the one.

All along it was the US dollar that was the best indicator.

Old reliable.

So why should we abandon it now?

Look at the US Dollar Index overlaid with the short ETF for the S&P500.

In other words, when the blue line goes up, that means stock market shorts are making money (along with rising dollars). But when the blue line falls, that means the shorts are losing and people who own stocks are the ones making money (with dollars falling):

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

The wheat complex looks interesting at current levels, offering trading opportunities in either direction.

Check it out!

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Last week I covered the soybean complex and corn.

As promised, I’ll cover the wheat complex this week, rounding out our coverage of the grain markets.

Let’s dive in!

Before we start, check out this breakdown of the different types of wheat varieties. I love to nerd out on this stuff – anything that involves maps, I’m hooked!

Today I’ll cover the most actively traded US contracts; Chicago Soft Red Winter Wheat (SRW), Kansas City Hard Red Winter Wheat (HRW), and Minneapolis Hard Red Spring Wheat (HRS).

The first two contracts trade on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), with soft red wheat first trading on the CBOT in 1877. Minneapolis spring wheat trades on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX).

These different types of wheat derive their names from their growing regions, where they initially come to market, and even their protein levels (hard = higher protein, soft = lower protein).

There’s plenty of information on the...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks rallied heading into the weekend, with the S&P 500 finishing up 1.6% for the day. Friday’s 1%+ move ended four consecutive days of relative quiet, the longest stretch without a 1% swing (on a closing basis) since a seven day streak in mid-November. We still have had just one week over the past year that did not experience a single 1% swing in the S&P 500.

Why It Matters: Bull markets are characterized by persistent strength, steady progress, and more often, relatively few big swings. That was the case coming off of the COVID lows. 2020 and 2021 saw multiple weeks without a single 1% daily move in the S&P 500. 2022 brought plenty of noise and plenty of volatility. That has persisted as we have moved into 2023. While the week finished on an upbeat note, the pattern of behavior is little changed. Just a month ago we experienced the first full week of 1% swings since March 2020.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was a nice Friday with green on the screen!!

Happy to see the follow through from the bounce yesterday afternoon.