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Panic Buying Ensues

July 22, 2022

You see what happens when the US Dollar isn't ripping higher every day?

I wasn't making this up.

It's all about the Dollar my friends.

And Dollar Futures aren't even off by that much, just down a couple of points over the past week.

But still, the Dow is up almost 2000 points, Ethereum is up 60% and Active Managers just posted their second highest weekly increase in exposure in the history of the NAAIM survey:

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Buying a Bounce in Bonds

July 21, 2022

From the desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley  

Buying bonds is finally becoming an attractive proposition again.

For months, we’ve noted the lack of confirmation from intermarket ratios such as copper versus gold, regional banks versus REITs, and high-yield bonds versus US Treasuries.

These ratios typically trend in the same direction as interest rates. But this hasn't been the case since last year.

And when we consider that yields are trapped below major resistance zones, we really like the counter-trend opportunity bonds are offering at these levels.

Let’s review a few setups from our Q3 Playbook we like for buying a bounce in bonds.

When it comes to getting long Treasuries, it’s all about the former 2018 lows. It doesn’t matter what...

July Mid-Month Conference Call: 5 Key Takeaways

July 21, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Monday night we held our July Mid-Month Conference Call, which ASC Premium Members can review here.

In this post, we’ll summarize the call by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

Breadth Thrusts & Bread Crusts: The World Is An Uncertain Place

July 21, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The world is an uncertain place. 

But that doesn’t make it altogether random. Trends persist – right up until the point that they don’t. If we’re going to move beyond irrefutable narratives and successfully navigate reality, we need to develop feedback mechanisms that can keep us on the right path (and get us back on the path when we stumble into the weeds). 

Operating in the world as it is and not as we would like it to be requires an ability to test viewpoints, an awareness that sometimes the ground shifts beneath our feet and a willingness to consider scenarios from both directions.  

Overhead Supply, Everywhere

July 21, 2022

From the Desk of Louis Sykes

Whenever we have any discussion about approaching this market from the long side, we're quickly stumped.

In the current tape, there's just so much supply to work through that there's no reason for getting overly bullish on meaningful time frames.

Go back and look at these infamous retests of supply zones; they are no joke.

Don't be smart money's exit liquidity. At the very least, we want to err on the patient side of things until this supply eventually gets eaten through in some capacity.

A big difference that often differentiates mediocre traders from good ones is the ability to sit tight, wait for a setup to form, and follow the money flow into a position.

Baker Bros Doubles Its Immunocore Position

July 21, 2022

The largest insider transaction on today’s Hot List is a Form 4 filing by Nimish P. Shah, who reported an additional purchase of roughly $1.4 million of Tricida $TCDA.

The only 13D on our list today was filed by Baker Bros Advisors LP.

Was That A Breadth Thrust?

July 21, 2022

One thing we know about markets is that breadth thrusts tend to cluster together near the beginning of new bull markets.

Breadth thrusts are NOT signs of exhaustion. They are evidence of new trends emerging.

Now, after a few days of strength in stocks and crypto, investors are wondering: Was that a thrust?

Well, almost. But it's not quite there yet.

Here's one that's close. We're looking at the % of stocks in the S&P500 making new 20 day highs.

We saw over 40% of stocks hit new 20 day highs this week. We're looking for 55% to categorize this one as a true breadth thrust:

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2 to 100 Club (07-20-2022)

July 20, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...

Chart of the Day: 2 Important Bellwethers

July 20, 2022

There are many examples of important Indexes and Sector ETFs that are retesting key former highs, the 2018 peak in particular.

You can see it in Small-caps, Financials, European Indices, Bitcoin/Ethereum and many others. We discussed all of these on this week's live Premium Conference Call, and also in our Q3 Playbook to Profit.

But you can also see these important retests in the bellwethers.

Here are two of the most important on the planet, one representing Industrials and the other Financials - 2 key sectors in America.

[PLUS] Weekly Sentiment Report

July 20, 2022

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway:  It’s been bears on parade all year, starting with significantly less optimism coming into this year than was seen at the beginning of 2021 or 2020 and continuing through lengthy stretches of more bears than bulls on both the II and AAII surveys. Persistent pessimism among advisory services has now been broken and it’s time for the bulls to show what they’ve got left in their tank. The clock is ticking, though, as they’ve used so much of their limited firepower and yet we continue to see more stocks making new 52-week lows than 52-week highs. Bulls have put together two days of better than nine-to-one upside volume (on July 15 and again on July 19). That checks off one box (out of five) on our bull market re-birth checklist, but there is more work to be done before concluding that any uptick in optimism is well-placed. 

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Recession Fears Misplaced?

High yield spreads moving higher tends to be a reliable sign that liquidity...

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The Inside Scoop (07-20-2022)

July 20, 2022

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

US equity markets have stabilized since June as macro headwinds have abated. 

This has brought on more bullish chart setups and a longer list of new highs.

While it’s nothing to get too excited about yet, it’s definitely a departure from the environment we’d been in.

Today, we’ll cover a stock that recently joined the Hot List and looks ready to join the new 52-week highs list next.

[Options] Cereal For a Snack

July 20, 2022

The latest Quarterly Playbook is out, which has given us a bunch of ideas to begin exploring.

One idea stood out for me in particular because of a recent pullback offering a good entry point. It's in a bellwether dividend-paying stock that we wouldn't mind owning for the long term, but we're going to take advantage of elevated options premiums to leverage into a high-probability bet for some opportunistic income.

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The Intuitive Value of Using Crayons

July 20, 2022

From the desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

There's a common adage around here, a bit of advice to "draw your lines with crayons, not pens and pencils."

What it means is that when you're drawing support and resistance levels, it's best to construe them as zones rather than in terms of a single price.

It's a good rubric and a sound principle. But it makes sense to explore in greater detail why this is the case, particularly for cryptocurrency.

When it comes to this new asset class, technicals are a far more popular choice among traders and investors. It only makes sense in a market where there aren't nearly as many sophisticated fundamentals.

You're not going to discount a crypto project's cash flows to arrive at a valuation; you're going to trade the chart.

But, amid the growing popularity of technical analysis, proponents often don't recognize why price action principles work. There's far more to understand beyond drawing rectangles on charts.

So, let's explore what makes "supply and demand" work as a primary trading and analytical indicator, how to apply it, and why we argue for using...