They love writing about 'Selling in May and going away'.

Every year, they just can't get enough of it.

But what about, "Remember to buy in November"?

Historically the best 3 month period of the year for stocks is from November through January.

As my pal Jeff Hirsch likes to say, "Buy in October and Get Yourself Sober".

Here are all the seasonal cycles for the S&P500. The Green line includes every year since 1950 (1-year Cycle), the Blue line includes every year ending in 1 since 1951 (Decennial Cycle), and in Gray every post-election year since 1953 (Presidential Cycle):

(While on vacation until Oct 26th, I’m going to be sharing some anecdotes on my favorite trading strategies: why I use them, when, and how I manage them once they are on.)

Ok, so perhaps there's some recency bias here as the most recent bullish Risk Reversals I've put on have worked. Really though, all that has done is remind me that I should probably do more of these trades.

In a nutshell, a bullish Risk Reversal is a trade where we short naked puts and use those proceeds to pay for long calls. That's right, the market pays me to get long!

The trade is put on for a small net credit (ideally), and the short term goal is to ride an increase in the value of the calls which will allow us to sell a portion of them and use those proceeds to buy-to-close all the naked short puts. This then leaves us long the remaining portion of our calls for free! The calls could eventually reverse on us and go to zero, but we'll still keep the credit we received when we originally put the trade on (plus whatever credit we may have gained when we sold some calls to close all the puts). This is a great situation to be in!

This is the video recording of the October 2021 Conference Call.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Interest rates, inflation expectations, and commodities are all on the rise. 

But as these pieces of the intermarket puzzle fall into place, it’s hard to make sense of the strength in the US Dollar Index $DXY. That’s also been on the rise recently.

Even other areas of the currency market don’t quite fit with the action we see in the USD. We pointed out the absence of risk-off behavior in a post last week where we highlighted the broad weakness in the yen as well as AUD/JPY making new multi-month highs.

So what’s going on with the US Dollar Index?

Let’s look under the hood at some individual USD pairs and their trends across multiple timeframes to see what the weight of the evidence is currently suggesting.

First, let’s look at the short-, intermediate-, and long-term trends in some of the main US dollar crosses:

...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaways:

• Custom Risk On / Risk Off Ratio breaking out of an 8-month consolidation
• Risk On environment favors Emerging Market strength and leadership from Financials
• Intermarket analysis shows higher risk assets outperforming across multiple timeframes

Our ‘Risk On’ / ‘Risk Off’ Ratio is getting back in gear after spending most of 2021 going sideways. The ratio first peaked in February and while it visited and revisited that level multiple times as Spring became Summer, which then became Fall, it had not been able to break out until last week. The improvement in the ratio has been fueled by both an up-turn in the ‘Risk On’ index and a more pronounced down-turn in the ‘Risk Off’ index. On the following pages we will take a closer look at what is driving improvement in one and deterioration in the other.

The break-out in our ‘Risk On’ / ‘Risk Off’ ratio is consistent with the improving momentum backdrop being seen at the sector level and would be consistent with a more...

In yesterday's note, we exercised caution given that Bitcoin achieved our upside target and the growing leverage in the derivative markets.

The strategy for the coming days/weeks is that if Bitcoin is below 65,000, the bias is sideways to lower in the near term.

But when we look out longer-term, the skies could not be any bluer for the asset class.

We're in the camp that Bitcoin will eventually resolve higher, and when it does, it would be irresponsible to NOT be positioned aggressively long crypto.

We're not just talking Bitcoin, but also the altcoins, and even the crypto stocks.

So let's zoom out and identify the backdrop of accumulation that has and continues to take place on-chain.

One of the often underappreciated elements of crypto is the transparency of transactions that enables us to really see what's happening in the market. The vast majority of our analysis in traditional markets is conducted through price charts because price reflects the intimate dynamic of supply and demand. But in crypto, on-chain trends are...

Now for the risk on developments that we've seen in recent weeks. As you can see here Consumer Discretionary stocks are breaking out relative to Consumer Staples.

If there is one cheat code in the stock market, this may be it.

The bottom line is this: if Discretionary is outperforming Staples, shorting stocks is not the best of strategies:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty penny...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza

*** Click here to read the reveal post for this Mystery Chart ***

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be of any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes it’s an absolute price chart, other times it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize the price behavior objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So, let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

Just like that, Bitcoin hit our upside objective.

Now, patience is warranted as demand begins to absorb the looming supply around these levels.

It'd be prudent to raise cash and take some profits off the table while Bitcoin is below 65,000. Below there, the downside risks remain elevated for now.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: Risk On/Risk Off Ratio resolving higher. Commodity strength and bond weakness will have some looking for a new playbook. Breadth set up to lead.

• Paying attention to relative strength can help in two ways. It identifies leaders, to whom active investors can tilt toward, and laggards, from whom those same investors can tilt away. Up and down the size scale, Energy and Financials are leaders, while Utilities, Health Care and Consumer Staples are laggards.
•  At the industry group level, mid-cap groups are seeing improving relative strength, while large-cap groups are seeing their relative strength deteriorate.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to our latest "Under The Hood" column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended October 15, 2021. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our "Minor Leaguers" column.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names. There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Watch this video for a "behind...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Intermarket Confirmation For Interest Rates

In recent weeks we have witnessed rates break above 1.40% and crude oil achieve its highest level since 2014. One of many missing pieces for the intermarket puzzle is the Copper/Gold ratio, which has been chopping sideways since risk assets peaked back in May. This week, we got an upward resolution, which suggests that base metals will continue to outperform precious metals. But it also suggests we’re entering an environment conducive to higher rates and higher prices for commodities, in general. This is a constructive pattern breakout that supports the global growth and reflation narratives.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

• This week, we saw continued strength from our macro universe as 83% of our list closed higher with a median return of 1.56%.
• Copper $HG was the big winner, as it gained over 10% and registered a fresh 13-week high in the process.
• The biggest loser again this week was the Volatility Index $VIX, with a loss of -13.16%
• There was a 19% rise in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs (currently at 66%)....

These are the registration details for our live conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Conference Call will be held on Tuesday October 19th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Tuesday night:

There is more money being allocated to risk assets than there are risk assets to feed that demand.

It's not about the Fed, or the Trump or the COVID.

Prices go up when there's more demand than supply for assets. And that's what we see.

Here's exhibit A. Crude Oil is making new 7-year highs.

And why do you think that is happening? Is it because there's more supply of oil than there is demand for it? Or is it because there is more demand than supply?

You can complain about higher oil prices, or you can celebrate. You get a choice in this country.

Which one will you be?

I'd rather be celebrating with friends and family that we're all paying twice or even 3 times the price at the pump!

You can always check out the list of my favorite trade ideas here.

Also check out this Canadian Integrated $CVE: If we're above 11,...

(While on vacation until Oct 26th, I’m going to be sharing some anecdotes on my favorite trading strategies: why I use them, when, and how I manage them once they are on.)

The majority of trades we do here with All Star Options tend to be directional in nature. And why not? We're leveraging best-in-class technical analysis to give us an uncommon edge to participate in emerging and/or continuing trends. And if we know anything as Traders, we know that if we have an edge, we should attempt to execute against that edge as often as possible.

Meanwhile, I recognize there is an entire cottage industry around "selling options premium" and for good reason -- it works! That doesn't mean it always works nor does it mean it's easy. I just don't like to make it my only thing.

That said, one of my favorite strategies is to sell premium via Short Strangles.

This week we’re looking at a long setup in the Financial and Metal sector. We're seeing new all-time highs in financial & metal sector indices and thought of taking a look at a stock that's ripe for a bullish move.

Let's take a look at this stock.

I agreed to give a presentation Saturday morning about Crypto Currencies.

But if you've seen me walk through my charts in the past, you know I have a hard time sticking to one asset class.

If we're talking about stocks, how can we do that without talking about the bond market?

If we're talking about Commodities, how can we have a serious conversation without including interest rates?

And if we're talking about Crypto Currencies, how can we not include the bank stocks with Crypto exposure, who are benefiting from both rising crypto prices AND rising interest rates?

Well, that's what happened Saturday morning.

A conversation that was supposed to be about Crypto, turns into an all out blitz of rising asset prices due to an asset shortage that we're seeing worldwide.

The reason risk assets are going up in price has nothing to do with the economy, or...