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Forex Markets Suggest More Pain at the Pump

June 6, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Petrocurrencies and crude oil futures are diverging.

The currencies that benefit most from higher oil prices refuse to roll with crude’s steady decline. 

Perhaps it’s more about the US dollar than a handful of currencies tied to oil’s supply and demand dynamic.

But with OPEC up to its old tricks again – Saudi Arabia announced deeper production cuts last weekend – the question arises…

Is crude oil due for a bounce?

Check out the overlay chart of our petrocurrency index and crude oil futures:

Crude oil posted a key pivot high a week after our index bottomed in late September. Since then, these markets have taken separate paths.

Yes, correlations tend to come and go. It’s the natural rhythm of the markets. Yet past divergences have ultimately corrected over time. 

Our currency index led crude off the bottom in early 2016. It also peaked well before the 2018 and 2022 tops in...

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All Star Charts Gold Rush

Don’t Wait for Gold To Break Out: Buy Silver Mining Stocks

June 5, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What will it take for gold to make new all-time highs?

A weaker US dollar and falling real yields are likely candidates for leading catalysts.

We can also add a significant unwind in commercial positioning to the list. 

Meanwhile, it’s a range-bound mess.

Let's stick to the basics. Uptrends – at the core – come down to more buyers than sellers. And risk-on/risk-off intermarket ratios provide excellent tools for tracking whether bulls or bears dominate a particular market.

After the recent bout of selling pressure, one precious metal risk ratio is approaching a potential inflection point…

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The Minor Leaguers (06-05-2023)

June 5, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in...

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Follow the Flow (06-05-2023)

June 5, 2023

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

All Star Charts Gold Rush

Don’t Wait for Gold To Break Out: Buy Silver Mining Stocks

June 5, 2023

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

What will it take for gold to make new all-time highs?

A weaker US dollar and falling real yields are likely candidates for leading catalysts.

We can also add a significant unwind in commercial positioning to the list. 

Meanwhile, it’s a range-bound mess.

Let’s stick to the basics. Uptrends – at the core – come down to more buyers than sellers. And risk-on/risk-off intermarket ratios provide excellent tools for tracking whether bulls or bears dominate a particular market.

After the recent bout of selling pressure, one precious metal risk ratio is approaching a potential inflection point…

Check out the Silver Miners ETF $SIL versus the iShares Silver ETF $SLV:

 

The SIL/SLV ratio speaks to the risk appetite in the same vein as the Gold Miners ETF $GDX versus the Gold ETF $GLD.

SIL/SLV simply sits further out on the risk curve than GDX/GLD.

(A rising line indicates a risk-on environment, while a falling line implies de-risking behavior.)

The last time this ratio traded at these levels in early 2016, gold put in the low of its current decade-long base. And...

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[Options Premium] Tracking to the Sun

June 5, 2023

It appears to me the broader markets have declared their intention to rally this summer. As such, I want to be positioned to take advantage.

And what better way to position for a summer rally than in a company with exposure to solar energy projects?

I love it when the stars align.

 

Loews SVP Tisch Reports a Large Insider Buy

June 5, 2023

The largest insider buy on today's list comes in a Form 4 filing by Ben Tisch, senior vice president of corporate development and strategy at Loews Corporation $L.

Tisch reported a purchase of 330,000 shares, equivalent to $18,781,400.

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The Buzz 🐝 Week 14

June 5, 2023
Welcome to The Buzz! 

Week starting June 5, 2023 | Edition No. 14 

Our mission at The Buzz is simple: to identify and profit from the most-talked-about stocks on social media. 

Every week, we compile a list of stocks trending tickers that are experiencing a large increase in the investor interest. We use social media data from our partners at Likefolio. 

In each weekly report, we outline 1-3 actionable trades. We also take a closer look at a few other charts from our list. Some weeks will have more actionable setups than others, as we don’t want to force trades. 

With any bottoms-up scan, many of these stocks are at the mercy of the broader market. We will always consider the current market environment when identifying our long/short ideas. 

None of these setups are guaranteed to work. Profitable trading requires you to take small losses and let your winners run. If price closes below our risk levels, we want to take the small loss and move on, to preserve capital for future opportunities. 

As always, feel free to reach out to me at Patrick@thechartreport.com...