From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Pessimism Not Taking A Bite Out Of Apple

The Fed unleashed a speculative bubble when it cut rates in the second half of 2019. Apple (AAPL), the largest company in the US, led the market higher during the boom and has been resilient as other areas have gone bust. 

The Numbers: Both AAPL and the equal-weight S&P 500 (RSP) are down 20% this year. But while RSP has pulled back to its lowest level since early 2021, Apple is still 14% above its June low. Longer-term, RSP is now only 20% above its mid-2019 level, while AAPL still has a 200% gain over the past 3+ years.  

Why It Matters: Sentiment has turned sour again and talk of capitulation is widespread. Given its  size and gains in recent years, it’s hard to see Apple staying intact if investors have thrown in the towel.

In this week’s Sentiment Report we take a Deeper Look at how the recent price swings have weighed on optimism and how an absence of bulls makes it difficult to have a bull...

...Berkshire "B" shares, to be precise.

One of JC's favorite trades when volatility is spiking and bearish sentiment seems a little overdone on the downside is to either buy stock in Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B or even better -- sell some naked puts to fade the fear.

During our morning meeting today, JC was feeling that the time was right to pull the trigger on this idea again.

Selling naked puts is the move for us today, but we have to be aware that earnings are on the horizon in early November -- which may be accounting for some of the extra premium in November monthly expiration options.

As you can see from this chart, $BRK.B has undercut a significant level ever so slightly, but if this move is false, the whipsaw back up should be swift:

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

There's a lot that we can learn from Warren Buffett, who many consider to be one of the greatest investors of all time.

One of the most important lessons of all of them is that there are no called strikes on Wall Street. In other words, in liquid markets, you're not penalized for “missing” a trade.

The market doesn't guarantee traders much. But we can be certain there will always be future opportunities. We're not venture capitalists running rounds on private companies where a single deal can make or break our year.

Instead, we operate in public markets, where there will always be a multitude of setups.

In other words, we're not penalized for not swinging like we are in baseball.

With Bonds getting destroyed this year, it's put pressure on growth stocks, because of their long-duration characteristics.

As rates rise, it puts a lot of pressure on growth stocks. That's why historically the more Value oriented stocks and sectors tend to outperform when rates are rising.

When rates are falling that's when growth stocks usually thrive the most.

We all know this. The data is free.

BUT, a funny thing has happened over the last few months.

With bonds continuing to collapse and breaking those summer lows, the Nasdaq has been outperforming the S&P500.

What does the stock market know that we don't?

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We hit the June lows in the S&P 500 but not the Nasdaq.

We did bounce off the lows, but last night $AAPL signaled trouble ahead and is cutting back production. The futures dropped on that news.

We continue to see insider activity in Adobe $ADBE this week.

This time, director David Ricks filed a Form 4 reporting purchases worth roughly $336,672.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The calls for a dollar top are growing louder as analysts claim the advance is overextended. 

They’re right. But pushing further into overbought territory is exactly what parabolic rallies do. And many of the technical tools supporting the thesis that the dollar is topping do not apply. 

In practice, mean reversion tools such as oversold/overbought conditions, price exceeding the upper bounds of a Bollinger Band, or the percentage gain above the moving average du jour are best used in trendless markets. 

Does the dollar look trendless? Absolutely not! 

Don’t let these data points distract you. Let’s instead put the current DXY advance into perspective by focusing on historical price action. 

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This market can't seem to get out of its own way.

The $SPY hit the 370 level, the $QQQ hit 379, and both reversed on a dime.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The earnings momentum trend rolled over last week. Our Macro Health Check now shows red lights (4) outnumbering green lights (2).

Why It Matters: The June stock market lows came with a macro backdrop that was challenging but stable. Stocks don’t move on good and bad, they react to better and worse. The macro environment is getting worse and holding support levels is more of a challenge. 

In taking a Deeper Look we will pull back the curtains on this checklist. We also look at how these latest developments are being reflected in investor risk appetite and where new risks might be developing.

From the Desk of Louis Sykes @haumicharts

As technical analysts, we pride ourselves on never being dogmatic in our approach.

Always being open to a variety of scenarios will always be a virtue for market analysts and traders who put money to work. We constantly play devil's advocate, questioning whether elements of our macro thesis hold up to criticism.

An integral part of this objective approach is to have a predetermined list of data points that would invalidate our initial models and theses.

In the case of the current market environment, we're of the view that if Bitcoin's holding its prior cycle highs of 18,000 and the S&P 500 is defending its June lows, we don't want to be looking for short opportunities.

Instead, we're better served either focusing on names shaping up as potential long candidates while remaining patient until a more defined directional bias can be ascertained.

But what if we take the other side of this discussion?

What if Bitcoin loses 18,000?

What if there's more pain ahead?

How will we adapt?

With a variety of risk markets pressing to the lower bounds of current trading...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Yesterday was a very volatile day, once again.

$SPY tested the 370 resistance level then headed downhill to 363.

ICONIQ Strategic Partners LP filed a Form 4 reporting the purchase of roughly $3.7 million in Braze Inc $BRZE.

The fund now has a total stake in BRZE of more than 28.70%.

The stock we're looking at this week is part of the Defence Industry Group. The focus is on sectors with clear direction.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This morning, it looked like the market could've trended higher.

I bought $SPY at 367.4 and it rallied to 370, a resistance level.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

This year, we expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.

But, instead of all-time highs, we're sorting by 52-week highs these days, as we don't want to discriminate against energy or other cyclical stocks.

...