From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

New Mystery Chart!

For those new to the exercise, we take a chart of interest and remove the x/y-axes and any other labels that would help identify it. The chart can be any security in any asset class on any timeframe on an absolute or relative basis. Maybe it’s a custom index or inverted, who knows!

We do all this to put aside the biases we have associated with this specific security/the market and come to a conclusion based solely on price.

You can guess what it is if you must, but the real value comes from sharing what you would do right now. Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

Earlier this month we launched our NEW Charting School, which includes 7 Lessons, about 6 hours of content and approximately 175 Quiz questions in total throughout the course.

The feedback we've received has been so good that we want to make sure that everyone can get access to it

So we’re giving away the first module free.

This is the video recording of the June 2020 Conference Call.

This is the video recording of the June 2020 Conference Call.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

For the week ended Friday, June 12, 2020:

Every week we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.

Last week was a big one for the bears as most risk-assets sold off aggressively to end the week after a strong start.

Many major Indexes in both International and Domestic Equity Markets printed bearish island reversal patterns, most of which occurred at logical levels of overhead supply. Read our post about it here.

We also just wrote about how the market's secular leaders are holding up best since market internals peaked about two weeks ago. We're going to use our US Index and Sector tables below to highlight the noteworthy relative strength from these areas amid the recent market weakness.

Let's take it from the top and begin with our US Index ETF table.

Click table to enlarge view....

If you believe the longer-term uptrend is still in tact, then you have to love opportunities to buy on the dip during market pullbacks.

And the best place to look for these dips is in the strongest sectors that have been leading us higher since the depths of March. The software sector is in my sights today.

A lot of our focus in the Commodity space has been around Gold/Silver and Base Metals, and rightfully so as those have been trending well, but there are now several interesting setups in the Agriculture space.

In this post, we're exploring some emerging opportunities amongst the less widely-followed Commodities.

First, let's take a look at Rapeseed Mustard, which is a great example of how quickly these assets can move once they get going. Not only does this highlight the profit potential, but also the importance of risk management and respecting stops when things head in the wrong direction.

Click on chart to enlarge view. 

We were actually of the view that Rapeseed Mustard was likely to resolve lower so we did not have a...

When stocks as an asset class are in a strong uptrend, or "bull market" as some like to call it, they don't just perform well on an absolute basis, but they also tend to outperform their alternatives. Two perfectly good alternatives to owning stocks are Bonds and Precious Metals.

As you can see in this chart, in early March the S&P500 broke key support relative to both US Treasury Bonds and Gold. All of that former support since 2018 "should" turn into resistance, based on our polarity principles.

And it did:

As part of our Top-Down Approach, it's important to consider all asset classes around the globe.

In our Five Bull Market Barometers we cover what's happening in Commodities and Fixed Income, and we wrote about the Rupee here, so this post is going to focus on what's happening in Equities.

Since global markets are highly correlated, it's important to understand what's happening in Equities around the world before we get into what's happening in India's major indexes and individual stocks.

This week's talk of the town in the Technical Analysis community is the "Island Reversal", and rightfully so, as some of the world's strongest indexes are sporting this pattern.

Let's take a look and get into what it could mean for the days/weeks ahead.

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Two weeks ago I wrote about the downside resolutions in Treasuries and Yen and the questions we would be asking in the days following. Given their rallies in the last week, we continue to ask those questions and observe what messages these "safe haven" assets are sending about the market.

This week's talk of the town is the "Island Reversal", and rightfully so, as some of the world's strongest indexes are sporting this pattern.

Let's take a look and get into what it could mean for the days/weeks ahead.

In early May we outlined the "Five Bull Market Barometers" we're watching to identify the beginning of a new bull market in stocks.

If you haven't read our initial post linked above, we'd encourage you to check it out so you understand what the rationale behind these five indicators is.

Now that the market has pulled back from its overhead supply, let's take a look at where these long-term indicators stand.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

It's been a close your eyes and buy anything market, particularly the past few weeks as even the most hard-hit areas experienced monster rallies. That appears to be changing this week with the biggest 1-day down move in the S&P since mid-March as well as the largest single-day spike in volatility since February 2018.

Last week we highlighted the healthy rotation into cyclicals. We pointed out that the secular laggards and areas that had suffered serious structural damage were now outperforming, and by quite a wide margin.

We used this scatter plot of our Dow Jones Industry universe to illustrate this price action.

The first thing we want to do when analyzing any asset, crypto or otherwise, is identify the direction of the primary trend. In the case of Bitcoin, the trend for the lifetime of this asset is clearly: Up.

Look at this pattern of Uptrend, Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend, Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend, Consolidation, Breakout, Uptrend, Consolidation.....

The next step in this pattern is Breakout right?

Relative strength charts are a great tool to identify where the big money is flowing into and out of.

Today, we're looking at a chart that suggests one sector is getting ready to outperform the broader market again.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We’ve written extensively about the split market we’ve been in for the better part of the year, as the same leaders coming into the Q1 crash emerged as the strongest areas coming out of it. Over the past 3-4 weeks we’ve seen some major mean reversion and much-needed participation from the cyclical sectors which have been lagging for years now.

This is constructive rotation and a major positive for bulls as we’re going to need to see this type of breadth expansion if this rally is to have legs.

While this is an encouraging development, there’s one thing that hasn’t changed at all. With all the focus on Financials, Industrials and Energy recently, Tech seems to have been forgotten a bit, but it’s still by far the best game in town.

These are the registration details for the monthly conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Conference Call will be held on Monday June 15th at 7PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday:

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Thanks to everyone who participated in this week's Mystery Chart.

Some of you were sellers of this failed breakout, while others were anticipating a move back to new highs after this brief correction, but staying patient and waiting for confirmation first before entering.

It was a mixed bag overall, so let's get into what it was and what our interpretation is.