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This Week Is The 7th Inning Stretch

August 28, 2018

The Baseball-almanac calls the 7th Inning Stretch, "Perhaps the most mundane, yet physically rewarding moment of every baseball game". Over time, I've learned to respect this time of the stock market calendar year in a similar manner. The timing of it is very close too, as we approach about 2/3 of the way through the game, or year in this case.

I've found that it's a great time to reflect on the decisions we've made so far in 2018 and mentally prepare for the rest of the year. This period I'm referring to specifically is the week before Labor Day weekend and the week after. Things historically get back to normal around September 10th-11th.

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[Options Premium] Going Back to the Well

August 27, 2018

It is that time in the options cycle where October options are in the sweet spot (between 45-55 day until expiration) to be looking for income trades wherever volatility pricing offers an edge.

And for our first choice for an October income trade, we're almost quite literally going back to the well, repeating an income trade that we put on in September to satisfactory effect.

 

BNN Bloomberg Interview: This Bull Market Is Just Starting!

August 24, 2018

This week I had the chance to visit Toronto for the first time. I spent a couple of days meeting with investors, doing a TV spot and taking in some of the things Canada has to offer.

I was invited to speak at the Toronto CFA Society to talk about my Technical Analysis. It was an event put on by the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts and the CMT Association. The crowd was great, interested in charts and eager to learn. Everyone was so nice.

While in Toronto, I caught a Blue Jays game (they beat the Orioles 6-0) and ate too much sushi. All in all, mission accomplished!

Before the event on Thursday I went by the BNN Bloomberg studios for a TV interview with Catherine Murray. It was a lot of fun.

Here’s the video:

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[Options Premium] Reading the Tea Leaves in Palo Alto

August 23, 2018

I can't afford real estate in Palo Alto (yet), but I can comfortably afford to take a ride with Palo Alto's namesake security software firm Palo Alto Networks $PANW.

Today, $PANW stock popped its head above recent resistance and printed a new all-time high, flagging some bullish intentions ahead of their next earnings release in early September. And this aligns nicely with our bullish outlook in the name.

[Options] A Few Options Trading Rules of Thumb

August 23, 2018

Recently, an All Star Options subscriber wrote to me asking about some hard "rules" that I follow in entering and managing trades. The assumption was that I have some rules that I absolutely stick to which apply to every trade. As a guy who loves following rules when it comes to certain types of trading, I'm sorry to report that options trading isn't so cut-and-dried. There is nuance to position selection and management. It's much more art than science.

So while there are no one-size fits all answers to any questions about strategy selection, strike selection, and position management -- I've developed a few guidelines for myself that I rely on regularly as I ply my craft in the options market.

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Best Reward/Risk In The IBD 50

August 22, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Last month we added the Investors Business Daily 50 List to our chart coverage. This list combined relative strength and strong fundamentals to highlight 50 of the best stocks in the market. Today I updated the Chartbook for members, so I wanted to highlight some of the best names I'm seeing on this list across several sectors of the market.

First, let's start off with a daily chart of the IBD 50 ETF $FFTY. Prices have been in a strong uptrend and look to be continuing higher after a failed breakdown below 35.15 and test of the 200-day moving average (if you're into that sort of thing). Momentum remains in a bullish range, so if prices are above 35.15 our upside objective continues to be 40.75.

Click on chart to enlarge view....

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[Options Premium] Taking Flight

August 22, 2018

Next up in the Bull Market Rotation Wheel of Fortune: Airlines.

The S&P 500 printed a new all-time high on Tuesday (Aug 21), so naturally we should expect a broadening spectrum of sectors and stocks participating to the upside. The airlines have been a bit of a laggard in the transportation sector, but appear as a whole to have put in an important base with many names starting to breakout to the upside.

We've got a play to take flight in one of the leaders.

US Stock Market Breadth Continues To Drive Stocks Higher

August 21, 2018

My favorite one lately is when the bears tell people that US Stock Market Breadth is deteriorating. It's hilarious.

Their sorry excuse for a thesis has them suggesting that there are fewer stocks participating to the upside in the U.S. Stock Market, when nothing could be further from the truth. I've been pounding the table that we continue to see an expansion in participation, which is characteristic of an uptrend and we have wanted to be buying stocks very very aggressively. That has worked out well. See here, here, here, here, here, here and here.

The...

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Airlines Help Transports To New Highs

August 21, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Sector rotation. Sector rotation. Sector rotation. I probably sound like a broken record at this point, but today's theme is once again...sector rotation. This time it's Transports being helped back to their January highs by an improving Airline sector. We've spoken about the relative strength in Railroads and Trucking stocks, and acknowledged the relative under-performance in Airlines two months ago, but the data has slowly shifted.

We also pointed out that although Airlines were the worst of the Transport stocks, they were hanging in there on an absolute basis. Sure, there were weak names within the sector like American Airlines, but there were also strong stocks like United Airlines. Today, however, we're seeing the relative performance of the group trying to bottom and the absolute performance of even the weakest names improve.

With this headwind out of the way, the Dow Jones Transportation Average closed at...

"Boring" Sectors Catch A Bid

August 20, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

Over the weekend as I was doing my run through the entire S&P 500, I noticed some emerging strength in areas that aren't quite as sexy as Medical Devices or Railroads (kidding). Instead, what I found was a number of potential long opportunities in the Real Estate, Utilities, and Telecom sectors. While the long-term relative performance of these sectors is nothing to write home about, as I explained in my Agribusiness post, I still think it's important to point out strength on an absolute basis because it contributes to the weight of the evidence and provides value to those who may have a portfolio approach that includes those areas of the market.

With that said, let's take a quick look at what I'm seeing.

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[Options Premium] Buying after the Shakeout

August 20, 2018

Logistics and package delivery services provider $UPS got caught in the volatility-triggered downdraft of late January and early February of this year. It has spent the remaining part of the year forming a base and is now showing signs of filling the yawning earnings gap from February 1. We've got a play to take advantage of this gap fill and a likely return to new all-time highs.

 

Money Game Podcast (EP.2) We Are More Motivated By Our Fears Than By Our Aspirations

August 19, 2018

This is only the second episode of The Money Game Podcast that I've recorded with Phil and I'm already learning a ton. The idea behind these conversations is to help make us more aware of our bad habits driven by our cognitive behavior flaws. In this episode, Phil and I talk about Loss Aversion and the fact that as investors, and in life, we are motivated more by our fears than we are by our potential to win. This is an incredibly complicated topic so I think it's important to start this conversation early in this Money Game Podcast series.

Here is the second episode in full:

A "Sell In May & Go Away" Follow-Up

August 18, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

On May 1st we spoke about seasonality and why the traditional "Sell In May and Go Away talk is a great headline, but not a great investment strategy this year. While most think that seasonality data is useful to position ahead of what are typically weak or strong periods, we find that the real signal occurs when the market does not adhere to its historical patterns. Now that we're a bit more than half way through the seasonally weak May-October period, we thought it'd be helpful to look at the market's performance thus far and see what it could possibly mean for the rest of the year.

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[Options Premium] Bullishly United in Technology

August 17, 2018

Excuse my cheeky blog post title -- we're bullish on United Technologies $UTX.

Consistent with our bullish stance on US equities over the near term, we continue to want to err on the long side. And we want to be in the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors.

One of those is $UTX and we've got a plan to play for a retest of all-time highs with an eventual breakout to significantly higher levels.

 

Tesla Is Not Just A Story, It's A Beautiful Chart!

August 17, 2018

I live in a funny world where I can just write some things on my phone or computer and people all over the world begin commenting on it. These conversations can last for months, even years. Those who know me understand that I try to do my very best everyday to look at the market as nothing but letters and math. It shouldn't matter whether we're long Apple or short soybean futures.

Some assets strike a cord with people and make them feel differently. There is usually a popular figure involved or hot product and sometimes even conspiracy theories. It's fascinating to watch. Gold is definitely one of those. The crazies come out whenever you mention gold, bull or bear doesn't matter. Natural Gas used to be like that 12-15 years ago, but not since it lost 90% of its value over the past decade. This one is the bitcoin of energy.

Over the years, things like Apple and Tesla have had some cult followings in their stocks too. But most recently it's been $TSLA and the fact that they get to gossip about elon musk to get them away from writing about trump every day. Everyone wins. I saw an opportunity...

[Options] Stop Losses on Options Prices Have No Place in Responsible Risk Management

August 15, 2018

In options trading, risk management starts with defined risk and ends with position sizing. "Stop Losses" -- if used at all -- center around price action of the underlying and give zero weight to the value of the option(s) itself.

As an options trader, nothing makes me cringe more than hearing about traders "protecting" their open options positions with Stop Loss orders.

Dying Retail Sector Hits All-Time Highs

August 15, 2018

From the desk of Tom Bruni @BruniCharting

The Retail Sector ETF $XRT just made new all-time daily closing highs. I was going to write an extensive piece on how we got here and the lessons we can take away about knowing what we own and exercising professional skepticism when we hear gross generalizations like "retail is dying", but I don't think I even need to make it that complicated.

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[Options Premium] Zoetis Might Soon Be a Name You Will Remember

August 15, 2018

Not all sectors of the market are glamorous or sexy. And Agribusiness certainly isn't one of the fashionable areas of the stock market. But we're about to wade into our second name here because the opportunities are too good. At the end of the day, we go where the money is -- these are just ticker symbols, right?

Zoetis $ZTS, honestly, is a name I had never heard before. But it has been on my watchlist ever since Tom Bruni blogged about it on All Star Charts last week. I've liked the price action since and think the time is right to take a position.

All Star Interviews Season 2, Episode 3: Dan Russo, Chief Market Strategist at Chaikin Analytics

August 13, 2018

Sponsored by Investor’s Business Daily – I've known Dan Russo for a long time and he always brings amazing insights and trade ideas. He's experienced, knows the markets and most importantly, he puts in the work. I have a tremendous amount of respect for him and his technical analysis. It was a real treat picking his brain and discussing what he is currently seeing in the market. In this episode, we talk about U.S. Stocks and the sector rotation that is taking place. He shares his thoughts about Healthcare stocks, Consumer Discretionary and life. I really enjoyed this conversation!