Earnings season is the heartbeat of the market - and every day brings fresh signals about where money is flowing.
With each report, we learn not just how companies are performing, but how investors are reacting.
In the Daily Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings moves from the prior session - the winners, the losers, and the reactions that reveal what really matters to the market right now.
Whether it’s a bellwether with broad economic implications or a niche name making waves, we cut through the noise to focus on the setups that matter most.
Here are the latest earnings stats from the S&P 500 👇
*Click the image to enlarge it
The $405B home improvement retail giant, Home Depot, had a +3.38 reaction score after reporting a double miss.
They reported revenues of $45.28B, versus the expected $45.42B, and earnings per share of $4.68, versus the expected $4.72.
The $115B medical devices company, Medtronic, had a -2.38 reaction score after reporting a double beat.
They reported revenues of $8.58B, versus the expected $8.38B, and earnings per share of $1.26, versus the expected $1.23.
Now let's dive into the data and talk about the most important beats 👇
HD was rewarded for missing headline expectations 🩸
Home Depot rallied 3.2% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:
Revenues grew 4.9% year-over-year, while EPS was roughly flat over the same timeframe.
12 of 16 merchandising departments posted positive comps, with notable strength in storage, bath, hardware, building materials, and appliances.
The biggest reason for yesterday's rally was guidance. Management reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, despite many Wall Street analysts expecting worse because of the tariff situation.
In Sunday's column of the Weekly Beat, we noted that Home Depot snapped a streak of 5 consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth a year ago.
Since then, they have grown their top-line anywhere from 0.6% to 14.1% in 4 consecutive quarters.
Despite this, there has been negative EPS growth in 8 of the last 9 earnings reports.
This quarterly report revealed that the trend of growing revenue, but not EPS, is still alive and well.
Technically speaking, the stock has been carving out a textbook accumulation pattern for nearly 4 years.
We believe this company must show the market bottom-line growth before shareholders can expect a new primary uptrend.
Nonetheless, it was encouraging for the bulls to see the stock rally despite the headline misses. After all, this is one of the most important proxies for the health of the U.S. housing market.
So long as HD is below 420, we expect the path of least resistance to remain sideways for the foreseeable future.
MDT had its 4th consecutive negative earnings reaction🩸
Medtronic fell 3.1% after this earnings report, and here's what happened:
This was the 11th consecutive quarter of mid-single-digit organic revenue growth.
The management team announced that the legendary activist investment shop Elliott Investment Management has built a substantial stake in the company.
In addition to the quarterly results, they raised their full-year EPS guidance.
We continue to be amazed by the market's unwillingness to reward this stock for reporting good news.
Tuesday's reaction marked the 4th consecutive negative earnings reaction, which is one of the largest in the S&P 500.
Despite this, the setup is undeniable. Price has carved out one of the most textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal patterns in the market, and we think it's only a matter of time before the bulls take control of the trend.
Seeing an activist investor of Elliott Investment Management's caliber is potentially a significant bullish tailwind for the stock. They have been tremendously successful in numerous campaigns.
Will this be another one for the win column? Only time will tell...
Until MDT decisively breaks above 95, we expect the path of least resistance to remain sideways for the foreseeable future.
Thank you for reading
-The Beat Team
P.S. Tomorrow at 2 p.m. Eastern, Jeff Macke is going live to break down what’s really happening in the consumer space.
If Home Depot’s rally after a double miss tells us anything, it’s that investors care more about forward-looking demand than the rear-view mirror.
Macke’s been following this industry since he was a kid (his dad was an executive at Target in the 20th century), and he’ll explain what’s next for retail and the U.S. consumer.
