Earnings season is the heartbeat of the market - and every week brings a fresh set of opportunities and risks. With each report, we get new information about corporate health, investor sentiment, and the sectors driving leadership (or lagging).
In the Weekly Beat, we spotlight the most important earnings reactions from the prior week - the winners, the losers, and the surprises that moved markets. Then we shift our focus forward, breaking down the biggest setups and expectations for the week ahead.
Whether it’s mega-cap leaders, niche growth stories, or the sectors most tied to the economy, we’ve got you covered on what traders need to know right now.
After reporting a double beat, Applied Materials $AMAT had its worst earnings reaction this century. It was also the 6th consecutive quarter that the market punished the $130B semiconductor equipment & materials stock.
They reported an all-time high revenue number, growing 8% year-over-year. However, the management team openly stated that this isn't sustainable... For example, they expect a 29% decline in Chinese revenue due to saturation in that customer base.
There weren't any S&P 500 earnings reactions to cover, so we highlighted Bitdeer Technologies $BTDR, which reported mixed results and had its best earnings reaction ever.
This $2.5B Singapore-based crypto miner is continuing to expand into the data center industry, and the market loves it. This hybrid model is becoming increasingly common, and we expect to see more of it.
The $405B home improvement retail giant, Home Depot $HD, missed headline expectations, but the market rewarded it. Wall Street has been bearish on this company because of the tariff situation, but the market isn't worried about it - they raised guidance.
Medtronic $MDT beat the market's expectations, but was punished for the 4th consecutive earnings report. In addition to learning about their quarterly results, we also learned that the legendary activist investment shop Elliott Investment Management has built a substantial stake in the company.
The $121B semiconductor stock, Analog Devices $ADI, smashed expectations and rallied over 6% for the 5th positive earnings reaction in the last 7 quarters. The bulls followed through, resolving a prolonged accumulation pattern and printing fresh all-time highs.
One of the hottest retail stocks in the world, TJX Companies $TJX, posted a double beat and was rewarded for it. This name has rallied after 6 of its last 7 earnings reports, one of the best streaks in its industry.
The $12B specialty industrial machinery stock, Nordson $NDSN, beat headline expectations and had its 3rd consecutive positive earnings reaction. The price also looks poised to climb out of a textbook bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.
The $782B discount store behemoth, Walmart $WMT, gave a mixed earnings report and was punished for the 3rd consecutive quarter. The stock continues to churn sideways in the context of one of the strongest primary uptrends in the S&P 500.
What's happening next week 👇
Next week will be all about the world's largest stock, Nvidia $NVDA. The $4.34T darling of the AI Industrial Revolution is scheduled to report earnings after Wednesday's closing bell.
Beyond those, we’ll also be watching:
The $89B computer hardware stock, Dell Technologies $DELL.
The $66B data warehouse stock, Snowflake $SNOW.
And one of the largest Chinese stocks, Alibaba $BABA.
In addition, we'll hear from the cybersecurity giant, CrowdStrike $CRWD, the dominant sports retailer, Dick's Sporting Goods $DKS, and the Canadian bank, Bank of Montreal $BMO.
It's set to be another eventful week, so there will be plenty to cover in The Daily Beat.
Now, let’s dig into the setups we'll be monitoring closest next week.
Here's the setup in NVDA ahead of Wednesday's earnings report 👇
Nvidia is expected to post $45.94B in revenue and EPS of $1.00.
From a technical perspective, the stock has been the definition of a secular leader.
After going nowhere from 2002 to 2016, it has since surged in near-parabolic fashion, becoming the world's most valuable company along the way.
With the price challenging a long-term Fibonacci extension level, investors are asking whether this leg still has room or if expectations are too far ahead of reality.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for NVDA 👇
Over the past three years, Nvidia has consistently outpaced Wall Street estimates with triple-digit YOY earnings growth in multiple quarters.
But earnings reactions have been anything but consistent.
We've seen anywhere from +24% to -8.5% over the past few years. It's safe to assume that there will be volatility associated with this event.
The bottom line is that this stock tends to deliver, but the market’s reaction hinges on sentiment, positioning, and how much was already priced in.
Here's the setup in BABA ahead of Friday's earnings report 👇
Alibaba is projected to report $35.36B in revenue and EPS of $2.06.
Technically, the stock is carving out a textbook multi-year bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.
With shares currently about $20 shy of the breakout level, there's a chance this earnings event will be the catalyst to resolve this massive base and mark the beginning of a brand-new primary uptrend.
But without that confirmation, the path of least resistance will remain sideways for the foreseeable future.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for BABA 👇
Looking at earnings history, Alibaba has delivered steady revenue growth and often surpassed EPS estimates.
However, price reactions have leaned negative.
If and when the base we previously mentioned is resolved, we want to see a shift in the earnings reactions to confirm that new price trend.
Without the fundamentals supporting the technicals, it's difficult to be too optimistic about this Chinese behemoth.
Here's the setup in DELL ahead of Thursday's earnings report 👇
Dell is forecasted to report $29.02B in revenue and EPS of $2.29.
Technically speaking, this stock is in what we call “No Man’s Land”, stuck between 2 key Fibonacci extension levels.
The breakout in late 2023 / early 2024 was impressive, but momentum has stalled, and the price has carved out a series of lower highs and lower lows.
The next move hinges on whether this earnings print provides enough fuel to retest the highs or if the stock rolls back toward support.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for DELL 👇
Fundamentally, Dell has shown resilient revenue and EPS growth in recent quarters, especially as AI demand has reignited interest in PCs and servers.
But the market’s response has been ruthless.
Despite growing its top and bottom lines, the market has punished shareholders for the last 3 earnings events.
This coincides with the series of lower highs and lower lows that we previously mentioned.
In other words, the bearish technicals are being confirmed by the fundamentals.
Here's the setup in SNOW ahead of Wednesday's earnings report 👇
Snowflake is expected to post $1.09B in revenue and EPS of $0.27.
The technical picture shows what we refer to as a “Kardashian Bottom” pattern playing out. This is one of our favorite accumulation patterns because it has led to some of the best uptrends ever.
If and when the stock resolves this pattern, the path of least resistance would shift from sideways to higher. It would also open up the door to a retest of the late 2021 peak.
But heading into earnings, the stock is once again rolling over just shy of the upper bound of its multi-year range.
Here are the past 3 years of earnings results & reactions for SNOW 👇
Snowflake continues to deliver strong top-line growth, with revenue advancing +25–30% YoY.
However, EPS has been more uneven, with multiple quarters of double-digit declines.
Over the past two years, this stock's earnings reactions have been among the most volatile in large-cap tech.
That makes this week’s print a binary setup: either SNOW clears 230 and runs, or it remains stuck in a multi-year range.
Thank you for reading.
- The Beat Team
P.S. Don’t miss Jeff Macke and JC LIVE Tuesday at 1 p.m. ET.
They will cover earnings insights, M&A rumors, and a peek at the brand-new Macke 30 Index.
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