From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.

It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

US dollar bulls are in control. 

Fresh highs dot the US Dollar Index $DXY chart. Sellers are nowhere to be found.

The question is, when – or where – will buying pressure ease?

If I had to guess (which I do), I’d focus on 104.25:

A key retracement level and former resistance zone mark my spot.

Plus, price has respected that retracement over the past six months, adding to my conviction.

How long sellers will defend 104.25  – if price even reaches it – is anyone's guess.

I don’t have a Magic 8-Ball. (Wait, actually I do, and it says, “Ask again later.”)

Nevertheless, I imagine sellers step in at those former highs. If they don’t…

Global equities will continue to feel the squeeze. This includes metal and...

Look what we have here: a $VIX popping its head up to two-month highs.

Are investors getting a little spooked by the prospect of a tricky earnings season?

We'll be able to figure all that out after the fact. In the meantime, we will use these elevated options premiums to help us ride out some portfolio profitability.

I asked my analysts to find me a big cap name that is trading sloppy.

And the one they came with is a widely followed mega-cap name that has been flopping around in a sideways choppy range which, coupled with upcoming earnings, is helping to juice options premiums.

Here's everyone's favorite EV car maker Tesla $TSLA:

Many Small-caps have been leaders from the very beginning of this bull market.

Even through the first couple of weeks of 2024, which haven't been great, Small-cap Industrials are still up over 42% since the Summer '22 lows. Small-cap Consumer Discretionary is up over 37%.

Both of these have outperformed even the S&P500 during this period.

So maybe the "Russell2000" has underperformed. But that doesn't mean that "Small-caps" have underperformed.

It's on a case by case basis.

Here is a list of our Minor Leaguers, for example, which include the strongest stocks between $1 Billion - $4 Billion in market cap:

One of the areas I’ve identified where I can improve my trading is in trade selection. Specifically, my trade avoidance.

Due to my early trading experience as a stock trader, it was ingrained in me during my formative trading years to avoid positioning in stocks that are about to announce earnings.

And for good reason.

Once a stock trade is on, our only real defense against punishing losses is to have a stop-loss order working. That’s fine if you trust yourself to always honor your mental stops. But for most of us mere mortals, the good-til-canceled stop-loss order is our best protection.

99% of the time, a stop-loss order works as intended. Sure, we might suffer a little slippage here and there. But it works like a charm in preventing disaster. Especially for intraday trades.

But for overnight holds, a stop-loss order has its limits. And these limits are fully exposed in the event of a...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Minor Leaguers.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list now, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to new highs in order to...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @Alfcharts

This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow.

In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but not both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.

Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.

What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.

And they’re doing so for one reason only: because they think...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US dollar is marching higher, stomping gold mining stocks into dust.

Harmony $HMY, Kinross $KGC, and Eldorado Gold $EGO are hovering just above last month's breakout levels.

And Franco Nevada $FNV –  a secular leader among royalty companies – is sliding toward fresh multi-year lows!

Coming into 2024, we already had a nice list of things that needed to happen to approach the market from a much more defensive perspective.

Let's remember that throughout the 4th quarter we were going out of our way to be more aggressive than even we were accustomed to.

It was a different environment.

And while we did not know what 2024 would bring, we still don't, at least we came in with a good list of developments that would likely be occurring before a more severe correction was underway.

Remember, the new highs list peaked on December 14th. So that means we're over a month into a market correction that you can only see taking place...

These are the registration details for our LIVE Mid-month Conference Call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

Our Live Call will be held on Thursday January 18th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Thursday night:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Danger Will Robinson, Danger!

Cocoa futures have violated a parabolic trendline. 

And it may not be safe for bulls to hold their long positions…

Cocoa fell -2.50% on Monday, cementing last week’s trendline break.

Commodity markets tend to experience steep selloffs following dramatic rallies. Escalator up, elevator down.  

But buyers are refusing to throw in the towel here. In fact, Monday’s potential top is yielding a fresh 46-year high today – not bearish.

I will not short those new highs. Nevertheless, I want to prepare for Cocoa’s eventual decline.

Check out the March contract:

For now, 4094 marks the line in the sand. A break below that level flashes a sell signal. But only if today's run-up in price fails to hold.

My bias remains higher toward...