From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Did you see the candlestick in the Mexican peso last Friday?

It was all wick!

The way I learned it, you want to trade in the opposite direction of blow-offs like this. 

That means betting on a stronger peso and an end to the stock market correction.

Check out the XXXL lower shadow in the Mexican peso futures (denominated in USD):

Last Friday’s intraday swing spanned six percent and registered the highest single-day ATR reading since March 2020.

Despite the earth-shattering volatility, the bulls prevailed. That’s the critical lesson from last week’s action: The bulls immediately repaired the damage. 

That trend will likely continue in the coming weeks and months. If it does, US stocks, especially the materials sector, will resume their uptrend.

Check out the historically positive correlation between the Mexican peso and the Materials Sector ETF $XLB:

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This is the video recording of the April 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Have you noticed these trends driving the markets?

Commodities are ripping. The energy sector is outperforming. Interest rates are climbing while US treasury bonds fall apart…  

Of course, we can’t forget about the US dollar’s rally.

I continue to err in the direction of these underlying trends. But the dollar rally will likely run out of gas soon…

Check out the US Dollar Index $DXY printing its highest level since November. 

My near-term DXY bias flipped bullish late last month. Aside from improving momentum and multiple tests of overhead supply, our bullish USD trades shifted my outlook.

The tactical shorts in the British pound and New Zealand dollar were in play and have...

The disaster for the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues.

Yesterday the Dow closed at a new 52-week low, priced in "Real" Money.

When you look at the Dow priced in Fiat Currency, it's also acting weak, actually DOWN since the start of February.

Here's what that looks like:

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Interest rates are climbing worldwide. The US dollar is dominating the pack.

And commodities are kicking off the next leg of a bull run that began in 2019.

The primary trends that opened the decade are showing no signs of reversing. As long as they remain intact, we must lean into them.

I can’t think of a stronger trend to ride than the dollar-yen…

The USD/JPY pair is posting its highest level since June 1990:

Now that’s a big base breakout.

Fresh 33-year highs ignite the imagination. But, from a tactical perspective, I’m more concerned with the completion of a 17-month cup-and-handle.

Here’s a closer look:

I outlined our breakout and target levels in ...

Think of Gold as the stable asset. And then stocks and other forex markets are just trading up and down relative to the price of Gold.

This week we discussed the fact that currencies all over the world have been losing their value, particularly relative to the price of Gold.

But this month now even the US Dollar has broken down relative to Gold.

You can get all those details here.

So if we're going to take the value of stocks and other fiat, and price it in Gold, then we should treat Crypto the same way.

Here are Bitcoin and Ethereum priced in "Real Money":

Did you see Gold just close at the highest price in history?

This is something we've never ever seen before - Gold closing out a week above $2300/oz.

It's the highest valuation for Gold in its entire history.

This is what that looks like:

This is the video recording of our April 1st Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Last week’s tactical setups are heading toward our targets as G10 currencies lose ground against a rising dollar.

If you let the pound or kiwi trade pass, fear not.

The US dollar/Canadian dollar pair is entering our wheelhouse…

Check out the greenback-loonie challenging a key retracement and former resistance level at approximately 1.36:

I placed a stop order above last Friday’s high of 1.3606. 

A decisive upside resolution above that level puts the USD/CAD in play with a target of 1.3850.

If my order fills, I’ll play this one tight since the dollar-cad trades in the middle of an eighteen-month range. 

I’ll...

That was the highest weekly close for the US Dollar Index since early November.

The trend has been higher for the US Dollar throughout the entire 1st quarter of 2024.

Remember, the Dollar bottomed towards the end of December in 2023.

So how much higher can the Dollar go?

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Currency markets refuse to choose a direction.

Up, down, or sideways: None appeal to the major US dollar pairs.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index $DXY is catching toward the upper bounds of its yearlong range.

If the dollar continues to rise, these swing trades will break for our targets…

I was monitoring the British pound for a breakdown below the December 2023 lows at approximately 1.25:

Instead of resolving lower, the GBP/USD took the opposite route, breaking above the December 2023 highs.

But those new highs were short-lived as the pound slipped back into its prior range. (Talk about indecisive!)

I like shorting the GBP/USD failed breakout. As long as the pound trades below 1.2766, I’m aiming for last month’s low of 1.2515. 

Meanwhile, a failed breakout leads to a fresh breakdown…

The New...

This is the video recording of the March 2024 Mid-month Conference Call.