From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is finishing the day relatively unchanged.

Today’s much anticipated CPI print failed to move the needle for the greenback.

On the flip side, $DXY’s most significant component – the euro – is ripping toward a new year-to-date high.

Check out the EUR/USD pair completing a seven-month bullish reversal pattern, retesting its January high:

The path of least resistance now leads higher.

I like buying the euro against the 1.0958 breakout level, targeting 1.1250. But I'm out if the EUR/USD slips into its prior range.

A pop in the euro tends to weaken DXY since it makes up 56.7% of the index, acting as a bullish catalyst for stocks. 

Yet the dollar continues to hold above last Monday’s low.

Plus, the buck moved in tandem with today's stock market averages – a throwback to early last week when everything plunged hand in hand except the yen and US Treasuries.

Markets continue to digest the recent spike in volatility. I expect a good...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Let everyone grumble over the Japanese yen.

I get it. The yen was cast as the villain decades ago, and something or someone must take the blame for the VIX hitting 65 earlier this week.

While I prefer to point my finger at the preceding low-volatility environment, the November election, and potential rate cuts, the yen certainly played a part. 

But the real question isn’t who, what, when, where, or why. 

Instead, every investor wants to know…Was that it? 

Is the selloff over?

I think the worst is behind us. 

Here’s why…

Check out the USD/JPY chart with a 200-day simple moving average in bright blue (with the percentage above or below the long-term average in the lower pane):

In many ways the yen carry trade is a play on interest rates.

Notice the USD/JPY rocketed higher as the current hiking cycle began, rising with the widening spread between the Japan and US overnight rates. Powell’s war on inflation and Japan’s Yield Curve...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Remember when anything priced in yen was trending higher?

It wasn’t too long ago that if you were looking for an uptrend, all you had to do was throw the yen in the denominator, and voila.

Just last month, the dollar hit a new 34-year high against the yen—levels not seen since the 1980s.

But the tables are turning in favor of the Japanese currency.  

While most central banks are either cutting interest rates or considering future rate cuts, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is hiking—a policy shift that puts a bid beneath the yen…

A couple of months ago, I highlighted buying yen futures above .6500.

Fast forward to today, and I’ve adjusted the entry-level to the former 2022 and 2023 lows at approximately .6625:

The shelf of...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One week, the buck is breaking down. The next, it’s ripping higher.

With commodity currencies rolling over, the dollar-yen sliding lower, and the US Dollar Index $DXY failing to hold its recent breakdown… 

What’s it going to be this week? 

So far, the Bulls are in control. 

But that could change if dollar bears violate these critical levels…

First, track the 1.0915 zone for the euro: 

A decisive break above that level will apply pressure on the buck and set an upside target of 1.1125.

Next, keep an eye on the pound.

The GBP/USD is pulling back following the completion of a six-month inverted head and shoulders pattern:

The pound’s breakout remains valid as long...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The bull market is back! 

The major indexes are hitting new all-time highs, and so is gold. 

Small-caps are ripping. Crypto is ripping. And the most heavily shorted names on the street are squeezing higher.

I’d expect the US dollar to break down as stock market bulls rush to put their greenbacks to work. 

Instead, the US Dollar Index $DXY is holding steady. Dollar-yen is refusing to roll over.

And risk-on commodity currencies – the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand dollars – are failing to trigger buy signals.

Stock market bulls don’t seem to care about the lack of risk-on signals from global currencies. 

As long as that’s the case...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The talking heads are forecasting choppy market conditions and a significant correction for Q3.

News flash: The market has been messy for months. And we already experienced a stealth correction beneath the surface.

I’ll keep an open mind, but if commodity currencies start breaking out…

Forget about it!

Stocks have weathered the US dollar’s recent rally. 

Imagine how they’ll perform once the dollar rolls over, especially against risk-on currencies like the New Zealand dollar.

Check out the NSD/USD pair coiling within a symmetrical triangle after retesting its 2020 low:

I’m not a fan of symmetrical triangles, as I’ve found measuring risk with diagonal boundaries far less reliable than horizontal support/...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The smart money is snatching up Canadian dollars.

Last month, commercial hedgers extended their Canadian dollar exposure to their largest net-long historical position.

While positioning represents a condition – not a signal – we can only view the hedger's appetite for the loonie in one light…

Bullish!

Notice that extended commercial long positioning (the bright blue line in the lower pane) coincides with critical inflection points:

These market turns preceded extensive rallies in 2016, 2017, and 2020.

Before boarding the loonie’s next rip-roaring rally, price must provide a well-defined entry with a favorable risk-to-reward profile.

But the past two years of sideways action look more like a topping or bearish continuation pattern, not a bullish reversal:

The bullish argument for Canadian dollar futures doesn’t improve when we slap on a...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

So much for buying the Japanese yen.

Forex markets are taking a shot at the Japanese currency as the aussie, kiwi, and Canadian dollars post fresh decade highs versus the yen.

Not to be outdone, the USD/JPY pair is printing its highest daily close since April 1990!

Check out the dollar-yen’s eight-week base breakout:

The path of least resistance now points higher toward 170, but only if the USD/JPY trades above 158.

I’ve been bearish the dollar-yen pair since it peaked in April. However, as traders, we must update our prior biases based on the current data. And it doesn’t get much more bullish than a new 34-year closing high.

Today’s USD/JPY breakout not only flips my outlook for the yen. It also impacts my view of the...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Check out these currency headlines:

The Buck Strikes Back… 

Investors Sideline a Defiant Dollar… 

Dollar Down? The 10-Year Says “Yes!”... 

The USD Rally Proves Sticky… 

Weighing a Potential Dollar Breakdown…

Well, which is it? Is the dollar going up… or down?

I have no idea. 

But given the market's current shape, your best forex bets are to short the euro and buy the yen…

If that sounds familiar, I shared a similar perspective during last month’s Fed Day.

A month and a half later, the euro is trading at...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

The US Dollar Index $DXY is violating its year-to-date trendline.

Is this it? Will the dollar finally follow the breakdowns in crude oil and interest rates?

The forex markets say, “Not so fast…”

Following yesterday’s breakout, the British pound is slipping back into the box as the greenback digs in its heels:

Fading the failed GBP/USD breakout earlier this spring proved rewarding. If you’re feeling spicy, you can take another shot at a mean reversion toward 1.25 – but only if the pound is trading below 1.2750.

On the flip side, I like buying the GBP/USD if it reclaims 1.2775 with a target of 1.3150. This trade will only work if DXY is trending lower. 

The euro is also running into resistance – down 40 pips this morning:

...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

All signs point to a weaker dollar.

Crude oil slipping below 78… interest rates cutting through a multi-month trendline… emerging market currencies hitting fresh year-to-date highs… risk assets ripping…

Yet the buck refuses to budge.

The US Dollar Index $DXY is holding steady at a confluence of support, marked by a critical polarity zone and the year-to-date trendline:

As long as DXY remains above the former resistance level of roughly 104.25, a bearish bias is challenging to maintain.

On the flip side, a decisive close below the April pivot low of 103.88 signals a shift toward dollar weakness....

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Risk assets are enjoying record-breaking highs.

Dr. Copper, Papa Dow, and international equity indexes such as the FTSE 100 are making the new all-time highs list. And Bitcoin will likely join them as it climbs back above 70,000.

Yet the defiant dollar remains afloat.

Nevertheless, risk-seeking behavior, Emerging Market currencies, and interest rates imply the dollar will eventually sink.

Earlier this month, the US Treasury benchmark interest rate led the US Dollar Index $DXY in violating a year-to-date trendline. 

Here’s the US 10-year yield $TNX overlaid with DXY:

The dollar follows the same path as rates. Therefore, the US dollar should follow if the 10-year yield is posting a valid breakdown.

Plus, many of our...