From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
We continue to pound the table on leadership down the market-cap scale. There's been strong evidence over the past few weeks/months suggesting this is a structural trend reversal in the large vs small-cap ratio.
Many key indexes - both large and small, sit at crucial inflection points. Many of the small and mid-cap indexes are also extended and sporting extreme momentum readings, making for a logical level for sellers to step in.
It would be a healthy development for SMIDs to take a breather here and pass the baton back to large-caps for a bit.
After drastic underperformance since March, one chart suggests that Gold could be setting up to outperform large-cap Indian stocks in the coming weeks and months.
For months now, we've been pointing to the fact that metals are doing great. It's just that Gold isn't one of them.
Base metals are where the smart money has been flowing. Copper has been hitting the highest levels since 2013 and absolutely embarrassing the performance of its precious metals counterpart, Gold which has not been so golden.
Copper outperforming Gold is consistent with higher Interest Rates, and we've been getting those too.
More specific to Base Metals on an absolute basis, the positive correlation with Emerging Market Stocks is off the charts. Here is Iron Ore making new 7-year highs overlaid with the Emerging Markets Index so you can see how closely they trade together:
We had over 250 charts in our internal chartbook, but cut it down to about half of that so it's not a marathon to get through.
We cover breadth indicators from percent overbought/oversold to new highs and lows, A/D lines, and more. We do this for all the major averages as well as sector indexes.
After digging through all these charts, we'd be remiss not to share some of our favorites with you. We'll go over some in this post.
Here we go with another round of our Top-Down Take weekly post. At All Star Charts we like to keep things simple and look at the bigger picture. We let the charts speak to us and then decide what to do. Always remember, the Trend is our Friend.
Today we’ll take a popular pick – Bajaj Finance - and see what what the chart has to say at current levels.
Something we’ve been working on internally this year is using various bottoms-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. One way we’re doing this is by identifying stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large, and ultimately to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, and Salesforce, to a myriad of others… all would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.
When you look at the stocks in our table you will notice we are only...
Nifty FMCG broke above its long-term resistance last week, moving out of a more than two-year consolidation. While the selected-few large caps from the sector have performed well with the rest of the market in the run up so far, we believe that the rest of the sector is on its way to play catch up.
Let’s take a look at the sector and see what the charts have to say.
On a relative basis to Nifty 100, the Nifty FMCG sector has begun to bounce back from multi-year support. So if ever there was a time for FMCG to rally, this is it!
The Mega-cap names have been digesting their 2020 gains since early September. Go one by one and most of them are down over the past 3+ months. All except the last one at the bottom.
From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Louis Sykes @haumicharts
At the beginning of each week, we publish performance tables for a variety of different asset classes and categories along with commentary on each.
Looking at the past helps put the future into context. In this post, we review the absolute and relative trends at play and preview some of the things we’re watching in order to profit in the weeks and months ahead.
In last week's report, we discussed the continued rotation into SMIDS, international markets, and risk assets. Our conclusion is and continues to be that the market remains in a very healthy state of order.
FICC markets are also confirming the move higher in equities.
From a short-term perspective, SMIDS digesting their recent gains would be a healthy development.
While we have yet to see that play out, our long-term outlook continues to favor Growth-oriented stocks down the market-cap scale as a way to express our bullish thesis.