As an actual Chartered Market Technician, I’ve studied the body of work from those who built this discipline.
So let me say this with conviction: technical analysis is not drawing chart patterns to predict the future.
That’s an ignorant generalization from people who’ve never done the work.
Technical analysis, at its core, is about studying price action via momentum, relative strength, breadth, trend etc. to understand the ONLY message the market actually gives us.
That message comes through price. Price is the language of the market.
The technician’s goal then is to become fluent enough to hear it clearly.
And right now, price is sending four messages that have me leaning long Tesla.
1.) The Longer-Term Trend
Checkout the 200-day moving average (Gold Line). Nobody serious thinks it’s magic. It’s just a tool to smooth out noise and quantify trend.
Right now, it’s sloping upward and price is above it. That tells us the long-term trend is higher. First check for the bulls.
2.) The Price Structure
Price is resolving from a coiling of lower highs and higher lows.
Consolidations tend to resolve in the direction of the underlying trend, which we’ve already established is up. Another check.
3.) The Anchored VWAP
Let’s bring in the all-time high AVWAP (Black Line). This level tells us who’s in control since Tesla peaked.
For a long stretch, price lived below it, meaning most buyers from that high were underwater.
But today, price is back above it. That flips the script. Buyers are now in control, and that’s a real tailwind for the stock. Check Three.
4.)Risk Management
Instead of leaning on conviction built from someone’s words… or financial statements that can be massaged, technicians lean on price.
We can quantify the exact levels where our probabilities falter and when that happens, it makes sense to move on.
That quantification gives us a clear risk/reward framework. The higher the reward relative to the risk, the better the trade.
No ego. No stories. Just letting price tell us when we’re wrong, and adjusting to the new message.
Tesla here offers a well-defined setup:
Trend aligned up (Price Above Upward Sloping 200 Day)
Consolidation resolving (Price Structure)
Buyers regaining control (Above ATH AVWAP)
That doesn’t mean I’m “predicting” Tesla will run.
It means the probabilities are tilted in favor of a move higher, and I know exactly where I’m wrong if it doesn’t.
That’s the edge technicals give us: defined risk, higher probabilities, and alignment with price....not voodoo predictions.
