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Will Lumber Futures Shore Up the Stock Market Rally?

July 12, 2024

Today’s analyst meeting was one broken record after another as we ripped through the most important charts on the market.

Not a top, never hit oversold

Not a top, never hit oversold

There’s a raging bull market on Wall Street right now. 

But the fun and games will come to a screeching halt if the following chart rolls over.

 

Hot Corner Insider

Hot Corner Insider Weekly Report - July 12, 2024

July 12, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Welcome to the Hot Corner Insider Weekly Report!

As you know, we spend a lot of time tracking insider activity to come up with this universe.

But that’s only half the battle!

Once we identify the names insiders are targeting, we overlay our expert technical analysis to see if the market agrees with their actions.

While we track some of the most powerful and well-informed market participants… we aren’t just going to follow them blindly into their trades.

We want to see that the insider activity is confirmed by the trend before we get involved. 

When we can check both boxes, we identify asymmetric risk/reward setups and then jump in and ride these trends higher alongside the smart money.

You can...

Hot Corner Insider

Liberty 77 Reports a $10 Million LGF.A Purchase

July 12, 2024

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Liberty 77 Fund L.P.

The private equity firm reported a purchase of 1,129,609 shares of Lions Gate Entertainment $LGF.A, equivalent to roughly $10 million.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from July 11, 2024:

 

The chief medical officer of Alto Neuroscience Inc $ANRO revealed a small purchase of $190,832 in his own company’s stock.

After a steep drawdown of 75% since its high in 2021, LGF.A has been carving out a bearish-to-bullish reversal pattern.

Price is currently in the middle of the range as buyers and sellers battle for control.

 

The bias is sideways for longer if the price remains stuck in this range.

However, if and when it gets back above 11.50, a new uptrend will be underway.

Have a great weekend. We'll...

All Star Charts Crypto

📅 Fading the Breakdowns

July 12, 2024

The lackluster action in crypto markets has continued. This is even in the face of yesterday's action that saw the US dollar continue it sell off as small-caps and market breadth saw its most productive day the entire year.

All Star Charts Crypto

📈 The Mt Gox FUD

July 12, 2024

A few weeks ago, stories of Mt Gox were once again reappearing as the cold wallet associated with the defunct exchange had began its process of distributing the coins out to customers.

Just like the SEC when it comes to approving ETFs, Mt Gox has repeatedly pushed the deadline ahead numerous times. In fact, the entire Mt Gox saga has become a classic piece of FUD throughout Bitcoin's history that has created a lot of fear among traders and investors.

The simple idea is that there is over $9B worth of Bitcoin that are being distributed to Bitcoin holders for the first time in a decade. Considering the massive profits they're sitting on, many people have pondered whether there will be a mass exodus of investors taking profits and hitting sell.

While this would no doubt be a headwind, I want to take a step back and put this all into context. It's important that as this story develops over the coming months we let data inform our decisions, not emotions.

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Bonds Are Ready to Rip 

July 11, 2024

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Will the Fed finally cut interest rates?

We can’t say for sure… 

All that matters is what the market thinks. And following Powell’s testimony this week, investors are increasing their September rate-cut bets.

Let’s review a few of our recent bond trades, as US treasuries could rip in the coming weeks.

Our entry point for T-bond futures was 117’27:

Price triggered a buy signal last month, but the breakout has been far from decisive.

If you haven’t taken a long position, you can move your risk level to the May 15 close, trading against  118’08.

Or, you can wait for buyers to take out 120’12 (the June 14 close).

Entry tactics aside, we’re targeting last December’s high of 125’30.  

The corresponding levels for the T-bond ETF $TLT have not changed:

We’re long...

Hot Corner Insider

Gabelli's GAMCO Ups Its ASTE Stake to 8.74%

July 11, 2024

Mario Gabelli and GAMCO Investors are back on our list.

GAMCO and Gabelli’s other funds filed a 13D revealing an increase in ownership from 7.25% to 8.74% in Astec Industries $ASTE.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data through July 10, 2024:

 

Orion Resource Partners filed a 13G for Skeena Resources Limited $SKE revealing an initial stake of 14.51%.

ASTE has been trading in a well-defined range for the past eight years. Price is currently pressing on the lower bounds. 

The long-term moving average has been trending lower for some time now, indicating that sellers are in complete control.

 

This one is a no-touch if it’s below 27. Even if it holds this shelf of former lows, there is a lot of work to do before a new uptrend can be underway.

Stay tuned. We'll be back on Friday with more insider activity.

...
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The Short Report (07-10-2024)

July 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

When investing in the stock market, we always want to approach it as "a market of stocks."

Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks showing leadership and trending higher.

We may have to look harder to identify them depending on current market conditions. But there are always stocks that are going up.

The same can be said for weak stocks. Regardless of the environment, there are always stocks that are going down, too. 

We already have multiple scans focusing on stocks making all-time highs, such as Hall of Famers, Minor Leaguers, and the 2 to 100 Club.

We filter these universes for stocks that exhibit the best momentum and relative strength characteristics. 

Clearly, we spend a lot of time identifying and writing about leading stocks every week via multiple reports.

But, we also highlight lagging stocks on a recurring basis.

Welcome to the Short Report.

We publish this...

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Junior Hall of Famers (07-10-2024)

July 10, 2024

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We love our bottoms-up scans here at All Star Charts. We tend to get really creative when making new universes as we want to be sure they will deliver us the best opportunities the market has to offer.

However, when it comes to this one, it couldn't be any simpler!

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US stocks.

Welcome to The Junior Hall of Famers.

This scan is composed of the next 150 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 150 and are thus covered by the Hall of Famers universe. Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

There is no need to overcomplicate things. Market cap is a quality filter at the end of the day. It only grows if price is rising. That's good enough for us.

The bottom line is it is a bull market. We want as many vehicles and options to express...

All Star Options

[Options Premium] Trading Like a Tomcat

July 10, 2024

The All Star Charts analyst team continues to believe that the industrial sector will be one of the leading areas to lift the market higher as sector rotation works its magic to keep this bull market going.

And the chart of Caterpillar $CAT looks like a potential failed top in the making:

If we're right, $CAT could quickly recapture all-time highs north of $382 per share and then the sky's the limit from there.

Hot Corner Insider

Artisan Partners Raises Its TWST Stake to 10.4%

July 10, 2024

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a 13G filing by Artisan Partners Limited Partnership.

The investment management firm revealed an increase in its ownership stake in Twist Bioscience Corporation $TWST from 6.40% to 10.40%.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data through July 9, 2024:

 

Director Lawrence Cheng announced the purchase of 4,140 shares of GameStop Corp $GME, worth $102,879 in total.

Cevian Capital filed a 13D for Smith & Nephew plc $SNN revealing an initial stake of 5.11%.

TWST has been in the base-building process for the past two years as buyers try to take control and force an upside resolution from this rounding bottom pattern.

 

Price is currently pressing against the upper bounds of this base.

We want to be patient and wait for a decisive breakout above 55 to confirm a valid reversal in the trend....