From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was positive as 79% of our list closed higher with a median return of 1.10%.
• Dow Jones Utilities $DJU was the winner, closing with a 3.48% gain.
• The biggest loser was the Volatility Index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -11.33%.
• There was no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 2%.
• 57% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs and...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Not All Indexes Are Created Equal

While the Dow (DJI) has rallied nearly 20% off its October lows and retraced more than 62% of its max year-to-date drawdown, the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) is only about 10% above its lows, representing a roughly 20% retracement.

This disparity in index performance speaks to the relative strength from blue chip value stocks as well as the relative weakness from technology. Until we see evidence of this changing, we want to remain overweight value and underweight growth.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a down day for the market. Things felt sleepy, or just a little slow.

People are probably still traveling back from the holiday.

Our longer-term risk indicator has been in the Risk Off zone since the beginning of the year. Successive rally attempts have taken it closer and closer to a Risk On signal, but so far it has been unable to break through. 

More Context: This indicator, which is calculated based on where various intermarket & intramarket asset ratios are relative to their 52-week trading range, was the sole criteria on our Bull Market Re-Birth Checklist that did not turn positive earlier this summer and it continues to offer a cautious message. The persistence of more new lows than new highs adds weight to that view. After the latest rally off of year-to-date index lows, there is still little evidence that a sustained turn higher is in the works. Fear has been relieved but strength is struggling to emerge. Our tactical models suggest that expecting price bounces to persist is defying history. There are pockets of opportunity, but this remains an environment for selective equity exposure not broad buying and longer-term...

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

No matter what the market, geopolitics, weather, congress, The President, retail demand, the news cycle, or even the price of the commodity itself throws at oil stocks, they just... keep... winning.

These are not trends I like to fight.

And it seems options markets aren't willing to fight it either as today's trade is in an oil sector bellwether that is now pricing in the lowest volatility in over 9 months as the stock flirts with post-Covid highs.

We remain patient in the face of this price action.

In fact, it's been many months since we've expressed any bullishness over long time frames.

At heart, we're trend followers. We're not here to stand in the way of the market. Rather, we want to keep our approach simple and ride the ebbs and flows of the tape to make our money.

Unless you're looking at your charts upside down, it's been difficult to ignore what's been happening in this space, be it in recent weeks or over the last year.

In the aftermath of the collapse of FTX, more parties will be exposed. Grayscale refuses to prove its reserves, and WETH has recently lost its trading peg to ETH.

In the parlance of Mr. Buffett, only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked.

The next new position in our Paid-to-Play portfolio is:

The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by the co-founder and executive chairman of Energy Transfer $ET.

In his fifth filing since August, Kelcy Warren revealed an additional purchase of roughly $6.1 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

The market is currently pulling into the $SPX 4,000 support level.

If we break below it here, we can head to SPX 3,981.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

The Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied 19.60% since its September 30 closing low. On Friday, the large-cap blue-chip index notched another major achievement by reclaiming its pivot highs from August.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 haven't fared nearly as well, as both are only up a little more than 10% from their respective lows.

However, when we look outside the US, countries like Germany and the UK are enjoying their biggest win streaks since early 2018.

For risk assets to finally put in a durable low, we need participation from stocks outside the US. We're finally getting it.

Amid all the bullish developments, we want to give the Nasdaq and S&P some time to get things in gear and play catch up.

In the meantime, we're starting to find more and more long opportunities in individual issues. This speaks to improving market internals.

We're also seeing more and more insiders and institutions buy into the rally over the past two months. This speaks to improving sentiment.

Let's talk about some new favorites from our Inside...

Are you noticing?

More stocks are working to the upside.

More of our upside objectives are getting achieved.

Many of our shorts never even get triggered.

A lot of breakouts are holding.

What type of market environment would you describe that as?

Well, we're seeing the most stocks on the NYSE above their 200 day moving average since March.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average just went out at new 6-month highs.

So did the S&P Financials Index.

None of these strike me as characteristics of downtrends.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall Of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:...

It's the weekly commodity edition of What the FICC?

Today we're revisiting the prior cycle highs as crude, gasoline, and copper retest critical support.

Check it out!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

In late September, we highlighted the prior-cycle highs for the top commodity contracts.

The question was whether these levels would hold as support. So far, they have. But it’s two months later, and we’re asking the same question as those 2018 highs come into play again.

Let’s check back in on these critical levels of resistance turned support for clarity heading into year-end.

For crude oil futures, 76 is still our line in the sand:

It coincides with its 2018 highs, its July pivot highs from last year, and this year’s September pivot lows. Former resistance has turned into support.

Now, will this newfound support hold?

Based on Monday’s action, yes!

Crude began this week slicing through our level of interest, only to reverse significantly higher by the close. Monday’s bounce off support was...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

That was an uneventful day.

The best thing that happened is that I called out a $BA long trade in the live trading room.

$AAPL is down today over news, and I believe that's weighing on the market.

This is the video recording of our November 25, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving!!

Today is a half day of trading, so let's see if the bull still pushes on. 

The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by General Atlantic LP.

The hedge fund reported a purchase worth roughly $5.5 million in HireRight Holdings Corp $HRT.