Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
This week, our macro universe was positive as 64% of our list closed lower with a median return of -0.89%.
Silver $SI was the big winner again, closing with an 8.55% gain.
The biggest loser was Lumber $LB, with a weekly loss of -6.85%.
There was no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs, which remains at 6%.
With strength starting to stand out in more and more sectors, we have a few good setups that we like for long trades here.
In chatting with our Head Technical Analyst Steve Strazza today, he pushed me in the direction of today's trade by highlighting the fact that if this one moves, its likely to move much faster and stronger than a couple of the other ideas I was interested in.
And the options in this stock are set up in a way that we can play this idea with a simple long calls trade. I like that. So let's dig in.
Metals have been one of the weakest areas of the market this year.
It doesn’t matter if we’re talking about the materials sector, commodity space, base and industrial metals, or gold. These assets have carried nothing but downside risk.
But mix in a little dollar weakness, and we see an impressive display of strength. Metals are finally looking like they have something to prove.
Yes, it’s only one day of action. But it’s a day worth noting…
Check out the breakout in copper futures, posting its largest single-day return since 2009:
This is a big development for commodities and risk assets in general.
Copper has found support at its prior cycle peak and is now resolving higher from a three-month consolidation. One of the most-watched leading economic indicators is signaling all is well.
Based on Dr. Copper's bullish breakout, we would expect metal and mining stocks to join the party. ...
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.
These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.
It has all the big names and more.
It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. Click here to check out the International Hall of Famers.
The Hall of Famers is simple.
We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.
Here’s this week’s list:
Click table to enlarge view
We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the...
From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts
With slow but steady improvement in breadth over the past few weeks, we have more and more stocks rising to the top of our scans and making new highs.
Due to continued weakness from the largest stocks, the indexes are masking a lot of this internal strength. But that's OK; we don't have to trade the indexes or any of those issues!
We're finally re-entering an environment where we have plenty of options on the long side.
Here are some new favorites from our Inside Scoop universe...
Market legend Marty Zweig was known for his investing rules. The first among them addressed the importance of staying in harmony with the underlying trend in the market. Good rules are great guides - we ignore them to our own peril.
Why It Matters: Rules need to be more than trite and convenient sayings. But given that we each have our own temperament and time frames, our individual applications will likely vary. For me, recognizing that the trend is my friend and not fighting the tape means respecting the direction of the long-term trend in the S&P 500 and the advance/decline line based on net new highs for the NYSE + NASDAQ. All of the net gains for the S&P 500 over the past two decades have come when at least one of those is rising. Right now, as has been the case almost continuously since February, they are both falling. That is not a tape I want to fight.
And price continues to tell us the Energy bull market still has legs.
Today's trade is a case in point where trading action today announced a declaration that an old-school oil services name wants to continue climbing higher.
Everyone knows fixed income is having one of its worst years on record. And, from the looks of it, we’ll all be dragging our Christmas trees to the curb before US Treasuries stage a miraculous comeback.
Don’t get me wrong. I believe these safe haven assets will dig in and catch higher – eventually. There’s just no sign of it happening any time soon.
Instead of focusing on the disappointing performance of bonds, let’s turn our attention to its relative trends against other major asset classes – stocks and commodities.
Here’s the commodities versus bonds ratio using the CRB Commodity Index and the 30-year Treasury bond futures:
The commodity/bond ratio completed a bearish to bullish trend reversal last year after violating a decade-long downtrend.
This major intermarket shift caught many off-guard, as 12 years of underperformance led the industry to...