Mean reversion is a universal element of the world we live in.

Reversion to the mean is a statistical phenomenon stating that the greater the deviation of a variable from its mean, the greater the probability that the next measured variation will deviate less.

In other words, an extreme event is likely to be followed by a less extreme event.

In financial markets, mean reversion is everywhere. This is especially the case in bear markets when prices dramatically rally following prolonged periods of sustained weakness.

As John Roque, one of the GOATs of technical analysis, would say, "We’re not in a reversion to the mean business. This is instead a reversion beyond the mean business."

Specifically, asset prices retracing to their statistical average isn't the rule, it's the exception. Rather, in most cases, asset prices will often overshoot their "averages."

With crypto markets bouncing over the last week, it raises the question, is this just yet another mean reversion rally, or does this move have some legs?

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Happy Halloween!

They pinned the close on Friday on the $SPX at 3,900. The "W" pattern I spoke about a month back seems to be in play. We have resistance now at 3,945.

The largest insider buy on today's list is a Form 4 filing by CD&R Boulder Holdings LP.

The firm disclosed the purchase of approximately $6 million worth of shares in Beacon Roofing Supply $BECN.

For so long it had been Bigs over Smalls.

People would even complain that it was only 5 stocks driving market returns.

Do you remember how hilarious that was?

Good, because it's so much funnier now.

Get this, those same people complaining that only 5 stocks were driving the market higher are now complaining that those 5 stocks aren't participating.

Market returns are currently being driven by all the other stocks. Those 5 big massive ones are doing their very best to hold the market down, but it's not working.

Investors are buying stocks, whether you like it or not. And they're buying the smaller ones at a much faster rate than their larger-cap counterparts.

Look at the Small-cap Russell2000 hitting new Year-to-Date highs vs the Large-cap S&P500.

And of course Small-caps are also hitting new 16-month...

There are 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

This is the most important stock market index, both currently and of all-time.

In case you missed my explanation, you can catch up here.

Of the 30 stocks, 5 of them are already at New All-time Highs (2 more that are no longer in the Dow also closed at New All-time Highs).

And several more Dow Components are just a few percentage points away.

New all-time highs are NOT a characteristic of downtrends.

An expansion in new highs is NOT weak breadth.

Here's a Dow component that has been basing for a while. ...

These are the registration details for our Live Monthly Candlestick Strategy Session for Premium Members of All Star Charts.

This month’s Video Conference Call will be held on Monday November 7th @ 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.

Here are the details for Monday evening:

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Thanks for all the great comments and emails.

I'm glad to hear how well you guys are doing in this environment.

But keep in mind that not everyone looks at the market the way you and I do.

Some people out there think the Dow Jones Industrial Average is beneath them.

Some people like to pretend to be smart and wait for computers to tell them if stocks are going up, instead of just counting.

Price weighted indexes don't seem to be good enough for some of their ...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Energy stocks refuse to lose.

We can’t deny the relative strength of the energy space, whether we’re talking about stocks or commodities. But it’s been equities over the raw materials for months now.

It doesn’t look like that will change any time soon. However, I doubt energy contracts will be left behind.

Let’s run down the most actively traded contracts for crude, gasoline, and heating oil. First, crude oil:

The December contract has chopped around a key level of former support at 85. Despite the sloppy nature of the chart, I don’t hate a long position here. But that's only if it’s above 85.

Keep in mind crude oil has been messy, so you’ll want to give it room to breathe. Plus, potential resistance comes in at the July and August pivot highs around 96. 

I’d much rather trade gasoline or heating oil for two reasons...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market-cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Apple saved the day, and the market followed along. I mentioned $AAPL in today's Morning Briefing, noting that if it gets above 146.60 it can head to 149.

Well, it surpassed those levels.

This is the video recording of our October 28, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

A Market of Stocks > A Stock Market

The Chart: The S&P 500 fell 0.7% on Wednesday, despite a majority of the stocks in the index advancing on the day. Thursday was similar, with the index falling 0.6% but again more stocks were up than down.

By The Numbers: Going back to 1998, there have been 276 single day instances of the index declining on days when more stocks were up than down. That is less than 5% of the time. We’ve seen it for two days in a row only 25 times. 2022 is the first year since 2017 that we have had two in a row more than once in a single year. We’ve only seen three for three (three consecutive index-level declines accompanied by more stocks rising than falling) three times since 1998, with the most recent coming more than twenty years ago.

Why It Matters: Cap-weighted indexes are heavily influenced by the direction of the largest components. But rallies are stronger when more stocks are rising than falling, when more stocks are making new...

"Old Economy" stocks are drawing our attention again.

Our Head Technical Analyst Steve Strazza says: "these old economy stocks are all beating earnings and taking leadership roles" and he cites companies like Caterpillar $CAT, Deere $DE, as well as energies, homebuilders, and transportation stocks.

Today's trade is an expression of the continuation of this theme, and our target stock is offering us a nice pullback to enter into.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a big earnings night last night, with $AAPL up and $AMZN down.

Futures are negative this morning. I'd like to see the $SPX hold 3,772. To continue higher, we must stay above 3,800 for a potential move to 3,820.

The Twitter-and-Elon Musk saga has finally come to an end, as the eccentric billionaire has completed a $44 billion acquisition of the struggling social media company.

The stock will be delisted from the New York Stock Exchange today.

How great it is that we can change our minds and take decisive action immediately?

As traders in the financial markets, if our spidey senses detect that something is amiss or conditions have changed, we can often liquidate our positions and head safely into cash with just a few keystrokes on our computer. Depending on the size of our positions, we can be completely in cash within minutes, maybe even seconds!

You can’t do that with Real Estate.

You certainly can’t do that with Private Equity investments.

You definitely can’t do that with a small business.

All of those investments are fine for their own reasons. But they don’t offer us the opportunity to immediately exit if we change our minds.

Of course, just because we can change our minds on a dime doesn’t mean we always should. If we’re wishy-washy and trading without a plan, it becomes incredibly easy to overtrade and drive our commission bills and nerves through the roof. While this might make us popular at our broker’s office, our accountants will unlikely be pleased.

There are stocks going up and there are stocks going down.

I'm old enough to remember when we would all call that normal.

The going up category just got longer recently. Remember Energy had been the only Sector Index above its 200 day moving average.

Healthcare is now also on that list.

Industrials and Consumer Staples are the next closest ones.

This morning we talked about how poorly the Tech heavy Emerging Markets were doing vs those like Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Indonesia, that have a much different composition.

The difference in performance is off the charts.

There are big winners and big losers.

Another big loser driving...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Bonds have stopped falling across the board!

That doesn’t mean it’s time to go all in. Tactically, it’s difficult to get behind this week’s near-term strength. 

Right now, we’re looking at just a few days of bullish price action. And where do we define our risk?

We have to know where we’re right and where we're wrong before we get involved in any investment. 

Thankfully, high-yield bonds answer this all-important question.

Check out the daily chart of the High-Yield Bond ETF $HYG:

Unlike most bonds, HYG has formed a small reversal formation.

We like the looks of this 4-week inverted head-and-shoulders on the HYG chart. Momentum is improving. And the bulls are reclaiming a key level of former support turned resistance marked by its...