The Outperformers is our newest scan that pinpoints the very best stocks in the market. It’s the fastest, easiest way to find quality names that are primed for major moves.
The goal is that as the market rally progresses, the sector rotation within the market will reflect in this scan. So while our Top/Down Analysis helps us with the broader view of the market, this Bottom/Up scan makes sure that we catch the slightest change in sentiment.
Insiders are finally buying into the summer rally. We haven’t seen this much action on our Hot List in months!
The largest insider transaction on today’s list is a Form 4 filing by the Chairman and CEO of American Assets Trust $AAT, with a roughly $1 million purchase.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...
Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.
By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends.
This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.
With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.
We are still waiting for evidence that the bear market in equities has run its course, and a new bull market is being reborn. We have seen the short-term risk environment improve slightly over the last few weeks (2/5 criteria triggered), and the overall environment is beginning to lean more toward opportunity than risk. However, the burden of proof is on the bulls to show evidence of a sustainable move higher.
If tech stocks are signaling that a bottom is in, we're of the mind that we'll find some significant beta in a badly beaten household name: The recently renamed Meta $META (otherwise known as Facebook...).
Chatting with JC this morning, he was drawing a comparison of META to what Gold Miners $GDX did in 2016:
In the arsenal of every trader and technical analyst lies a countless number of indicators, metrics, and tools.
Everyone in the business is aware of the classic indicators: moving averages, Fibonacci extensions, momentum oscillators... the list goes on.
Perhaps one of the most valuable tools is the AVWAP. This is merely a representation of the average price by volume anchored to a specific time.
The AVWAP works because it takes advantage of human psychology. It's universally accepted within the scientific community that humans are driven by a slew of biases. Ask any trader, and they'll attest.
An incredibly common heuristic that drives much of the financial industry is the age-old anchoring bias. Many traders irrationally make decisions solely based on the price they paid for a stock.
In this sense, the market is driven by these participants responding to supply/demand dynamics within the context of their personal anchoring.
The implications of such indicators are that they allow us to gauge an aggregate cost basis of specific securities, ETFs, and financial instruments anchored...
When the worst stocks on the planet can't go down any more, that's usually good information.
We saw a lot of Small-cap Growth, Arkk Funds, Biotech, Chinese Internet and many of those other "Growthy" areas bottom out this Spring, and some of the last ones in June.
At the Mega-cap level, nothing caused more shareholder wealth destruction than Facebook, down 60% from its highs less than a year ago.
With a few breadth thrusts in recent weeks, and a little preview of what a weaker dollar could do to this market, we had plenty to talk about.
This question included: New Bull or Mean Reversion in a Bear?
I think the S&P500 tells an interesting story. You've got that massive top that formed throughout the past year, completing with a break of support this Spring.
And after further selling, the bounce has brought it back all the...
You probably think I say the same thing every week. That’s because I do.
Of course, I throw in a well-defined trade setup here and there, but always within the context of the dollar and its impact on the major asset classes.
It’s that important.
As the US Dollar Index rally is well underway, it’s interesting some individual USD crosses are finding resistance at historical levels of interest to both the currencies involved and risk assets!
Here’s a chart of the US dollar/Swedish krona cross zoomed out to the late 1990s:
These last few months have been rather lackluster if you're a crypto trader.
But that's perfectly fine.
The market should never be your dopamine fix. The ability to sit on the sidelines for long periods of time -- as difficult as it may be -- is often the differentiating factor separating mediocre traders from good ones.
Even in the face of this recent strength, there's still not a whole lot to discuss.
Cryptocurrencies have completed multi-year distribution patterns and are now retesting their breakdown levels from the underside.
There are most definitely mean-reversion trade opportunities out there. But they're low-conviction, counter-trend in nature, and messy.
Meanwhile, Ethereum and many other names have bounced nicely back into supply zones following their respective rallies.
If this tape has reflected anything, it's to be very aggressive in taking any profits. This is particularly true considering the countless whipsaws we've seen over the recent months.
So, for today's note, we wanted to be a little obnoxious in pointing out all this...
The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Artal Group, which reported a purchase of roughly $40.4 million in Lexicon Pharmaceuticals $LXRX.
Artal Group now owns 83,835,950 LXRX shares, representing a roughly 47.5% ownership stake.