Today's number is... 8

That’s a new 8-month high for my custom Risk-On Index — and it just broke above a key trendline.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The green line in the top panel is my custom Risk-On Index.
• The red line in the bottom panel is my custom Risk-Off Index.

The Takeaway:The Risk-On Index is a clean gauge of risk appetite that blends key assets like copper, high-yield bonds, the Aussie dollar, semiconductors, and high beta. 

And right now, it’s sending a clear message — buyers are getting aggressive.

Meanwhile, the Risk-Off Index is heading in the opposite direction. After failing to hold above a key support and resistance level, it’s rolling over again — but hasn’t yet broken below its own trendline.

Together, they signal a clear shift in positioning: away from defense and back toward risk.

The last time we saw this kind of dual confirmation was late 2022. That marked the start of a brand new bull market in equities. 

So, if the Risk-Off Index confirms with a...

If there’s one thing I’ve learned over the years, it’s that new all-time highs are a characteristic of bull markets.

And that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now — fresh all-time highs popping up everywhere.

Some of the most important stocks on the planet are joining the list.

On one hand, we have JPMorgan Chase $JPM — the largest bank in the U.S and bellwether for the Financial sector. 

If this one’s breaking out, it’s tough to argue against the underlying strength and health of the market.

Then there’s Nvidia $NVDA, the biggest company in the world and the gate-keeper of the AI revolution. What more is there to say that we don’t already know?

After spending the past year moving sideways, digesting gains, the stock is breaking out to its highest level ever.

The team and I have been digging through our currency charts today, trying to figure out if we should trust these new lows in the Dollar Index.

And the truth is, there is plenty we could say about dollars right now, but I don’t think it would help.

The Dollar Index is going to go in the opposite direction of these bull flags in EUR and GBP.

It’s really that simple. 

And as far as other currencies go, I think we can expect them to follow the majors. Some of them are already breaking out. 

Remember, the major developed currencies started trending well against the dollar first, and then emerging currencies gradually followed. 

I expect that intermarket cadence will continue during the next wave of dollar weakness.

And it looks like it already is. Here’s the Euro and Pound resolving their coils higher against USD:

Both of these currencies ramped to fresh multi-year highs in April and have been consolidating in continuation patterns ever since.

This action reminds me of some of the ...

Thanks to everyone who joined us for the June 25 Hot Corner Insider Weekly Strategy Session.

PROGRAMMING ALERT: I’m launching a new weekly show on StockMarketTV.com called What Are My Options?

It’s a 30-minute(ish) show where I take your requests for options strategies on your favorite stocks. I’ll drop a lesson or two along the way, and sometimes I’ll just riff on the philosophy behind options trading.

The first episode airs Tuesday, July 1st at 3pm ET—and I’ll be doing it live every Tuesday after that. It’s meant to be interactive, so I hope you’ll join me!

Lately, I’m noticing more people talking about how the market has “come too far too fast.” Some are even licking their chops, ready to jump in short and try to catch what they’re sure will be an “epic reversal.”

This kind of talk makes me uncomfortable.

Not because I disagree that a pullback could happen — anything can happen. But because I know the psychology behind this kind of positioning. It’s not usually about...

Today's trade goes into the "Hard Trade" bucket. 

I'm buying a stock that has rocketed up 30%+ in just 7 trading days.

But... it has only just cleared overhead resistance which might be the "all-clear" signal from the control tower to ignite the rocket boosters.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The 2 to 100 Club.

In this scan, we look to identify the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on Technology and Growth industry groups such as Software, Semiconductors, Online...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLB.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed XLV (small win), IBB  (profit target), and XRT (small loss)
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

Carnival Cruise Lines $CCL continues to show why it’s one of the top operators in global leisure travel.

The $33B cruise giant just reported a record-breaking quarter, posting the highest quarterly margins in nearly 20 years.

The market rewarded the results with a 6.9% rally, marking the company’s 5th positive earnings reaction in the last 7 quarters.

After being completely devastated during COVID, the travel industry is booming like never before.

Everything about this report was fantastic.

They're crushing it, and it’s a clear sign that U.S. consumers are still spending.

Despite the strength, the stock has gone nowhere for years. 

We think that could be changing soon...

*Click the image to enlarge it

Carnival $CCL had a +1.30 reaction score after reporting a double beat.

The company reported revenues of $6.33B, versus the expected $6.21B, and earnings per share of $0.35, versus the expected...

Every day, we sift through the filings to spot where the real conviction lies – cutting through the noise to highlight the most meaningful insider moves.

Here's what stood out today:

📌 Sonos Inc $SONO – Coliseum Capital is back again with a $4.25 million Form 4.

This is their second major buy in the name this month. Coliseum’s clearly not done accumulating – and they rarely play small.

📌 Prospect Capital $PSEC – CEO John Barry just filed for a $1.99 million open-market buy.

That’s a big swing for a name that’s been under heavy pressure. Insider buying this size in the asset management space doesn’t happen without a conviction. 

While the stock presses against new all-time lows, it's important to note that it pays a nearly 20% dividend yield. 

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from June 24, 2025:

Today's number is... 86

It took just 86 trading days for the Nasdaq 100 to shake off its latest 23% slide and punch out a new all-time high yesterday.

Here’s the chart:

Let's break down what the chart shows:

• The black line in the top panel shows the Nasdaq 100 with each all-time high marked by the blue step line.
• The red line in the bottom panel tracks drawdowns from all-time highs.

The Takeaway: Since 1990, the Nasdaq 100 has experienced seven major drawdowns where it fell more than 20% from its highs. The latest drop — a 23% slide from February to April — now ranks as the third-fastest recovery on record.

Only two rebounds were quicker: the Covid crash in 2020, which took just 75 trading days to reclaim its highs, and the 1998 correction, which took 80.

This one took 86.

That puts the 2025 recovery well ahead of the 2018 selloff, the early-90s recession, and the 2021–23 decline. 

And it’s in another league entirely from the post-2000 collapse, which took nearly 4,000...

Sign up for my free note here.

“Bull market shirts tomorrow, boys!”

That’s the message circulating internally.

And in case you haven’t heard… It’s because we’re in a bull market.

And today, the evidence is overwhelming.

It doesn’t matter what the headlines say. It doesn’t matter what the journalists dressed as economists are warning about. Investors are looking through it all — and they continue to embrace risk.

Some are still fighting it because “it doesn’t make sense.”

But guess what? The market doesn’t care. It never has.

Markets are discounting mechanisms. They process all data and they express it in one simple thing: price.

There comes a time in every bull market cycle when the worst companies are the best stocks.

And this is a feature as far as I’m concerned… not a bug. 

It speaks to the offensive nature of the market. 

We call it bullish risk appetite, and it’s happening now.

If you know what to do with this kind of market, you can make a killing renting the right stocks at the right time. 

I did a livestream with my friend Herb Greenberg today, and we caught up afterward. I always love hearing his perspective on the stocks we’re trading.

It’s tough to be bearish on some of these speculative growth names in an environment where shorts are getting squeezed, but Herb is the best in the business when it comes to flagging bad actors, so I had to ask him...

“What do you know about this...

As a trader, I live by boundaries.

Stop losses. Profit targets. They’re there for a reason. They say, “This is as far as I’m willing to go.” They define my comfort zone — both for risk and for reward.

If a trade moves beyond my stop, I start losing more than I’m okay with.

If a stock races beyond my upper price target, I start to worry it’s overextended and due for a sharp correction.

These aren’t just technical lines on a chart — they’re psychological lines in the sand. And as much as I know they’re important, I’ll admit: boundaries are hard for me.

Sometimes I break them.

Sometimes I blur them.

Sometimes I forget why I set them in the first place.

And the more time I spend in the markets, the more I realize:

Trading teaches me about far more than markets — it teaches me about me.

Every time I ignore a stop loss or stretch a target, I’m not just failing as a trader — I’m revealing something deeper about how I operate. Because when I struggle to hold boundaries in my trading, it’s usually because I’m struggling to hold boundaries in other parts of my life, too.

In...

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in GDXJ.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Closed IGV at Profit Target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

FactSet Research Systems $FDS continues to deliver quietly.

The $16.5B data analytics giant just posted another solid quarter, and the market rewarded it with a 3.5% gain.

The company reported mixed headline results, but a closer look reveals clear signs of progress beneath the surface.

But what really got the market's attention was the announcement of Sanoke Viswanathan as the new CEO.

A former JPMorgan executive and longtime FactSet client, he brings a rare combination of operator experience and deep industry insight. 

His appointment signals a fresh, customer-centric approach at the top, and investors seem to like it.

It’s moves like these that remind shareholders why this has been one of the Financial sector’s long-term winners.

With the stock now up after 4 of the last 5 earnings reports, the trend is clear... the market continues to reward the stock for consistent execution.

This name remains one of the most quietly reliable compounders in the entire market.

So what else did we learn from this earnings report? Let’s dive into the details.

...