With bulls taking control of crypto in the last few weeks, many of the crypto-related equities are showing early signs of life.

Many of these names simply hold Bitcoin on their balance sheet, while for others, the activity taking place in this asset class directly impacts their bottom line.

So it goes without saying that if Bitcoin can sustain a meaningful breakout, it'd serve as a significant tailwind for these names.

Microstrategy is perhaps one of the more direct examples of this thinking, with the CEO taking out hundreds of millions of dollars of debt to add to their growing arsenal of Bitcoin on the company's balance sheet...

On this week's episode of the podcast, I sit down with David Keller to talk about all things behavioral finance. David is one of my favorite guys to talk to about the subject, so I reached out to him and said, "Dave, come on the pod and let's talk about humans".

He happily agreed and so we hit the ground running talking about Anchoring Bias, Loss Aversion, Risk Management, Supply and Demand Dynamics and Market Sentiment.

This wasn't just an academic endeavor. We also discussed current markets, price trends, momentum, breadth and Dave's favorite trade for the rest of 2021.

I think you're really going to enjoy this one. I certainly did!

My entire career I've been told by the old timers that many of their biggest winners have come from Mid-caps.

That always stuck with me, to the point where when we win in mid-caps, it always hits me, "Those guys were right!"

To be clear, the traditional definition of a Mid-cap stock is between $2-10 Billion in Market Capitalization (Market-cap = shares outstanding x price of the stock). 

I honestly don't know how long that's been the definition, or who's in charge of making that up. But I will tell you that I don't remember a time when that wasn't the definition.

And I've been around a couple of decades already.

So is anyone factoring in Mid-cap inflation these days? 

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we’ve been working on internally is using various 'bottoms-up' tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we’re doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small, to mid, to large - and ultimately mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B) they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn’t just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, and Salesforce, to a myriad of others… all would have been on...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key takeaway: A “no fear” attitude envelopes a market marred by mixed signals and deteriorating breadth. Large-cap indexes push to new highs while small and mid-caps trend lower. We even see an expansion in new lows further down the cap scale. But on the surface, optimism shines. Yet, challenges could lie ahead as a lack of risk-seeking behavior suggests a weariness among investors, and seasonal tendencies lean toward a lackluster performance in the coming months. For now,  equities remain the popular choice among market participants as investor sentiment obscures the fragile reality beneath the surface.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: Investors Love Equities

If you want to know what is loved, see where people put their money. Through the first seven months of the year, equity ETFs have seen more than $350 billion of inflows (over the past year, that number swells to half a trillion). Bond ETFs have...

Why didn't I buy this coin when it was $10?

Why did I sell early?

Why didn't I buy the dip?

Why didn't I buy more?

How did I not see the top?

These are questions almost everyone who's been involved in crypto has asked themselves and felt, at one point or another.

Some call it a lack of discipline or FOMO, but it's really all about managing future regret.

This dynamic is undoubtedly present in other asset classes too. Still, it's put on full display in this space, where people are made to believe that regularly achieving 10x baggers is a normal occurrence.

The returns people feel they can obtain by holding coins in this space are largely based on a perfectionist mindset which is both unhealthy and unrealistic.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

We held our August Monthly Strategy Session last night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month. 

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

This All Star Charts +Plus Monthly Playbook breaks down the investment universe into a series of largely binary decisions and tactical calls. Paired with our Weight of the Evidence Dashboard, this piece is designed to help active asset allocators follow trends, pursue opportunities, and manage risk.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Was that it for the recent bounce in the US dollar?

A little more than a month ago, we began to see broad-based strength in USD emerge on both a short and intermediate-term basis. 

Since then, it’s been the central theme in currency markets. 

But we're starting to see signs that this near-term US dollar dominance could be fading as bulls have had ample opportunity to push the USD higher in recent months but have made little progress. 

The lack of follow-through can be seen in our long USD trade ideas from late June, as most are not working. We recently saw many crosses reach our risk level, but price rebounded instead of triggering an entry. The EUR/USD is a great example of this. 

One exception is...

Let me make something perfectly clear.

I'm confident that fundamentals are what drives the price of assets.

You also cannot argue against the fact that those prices regularly trend over time.

So Technical Analysis allows us to identify those trends, and profit from them, if that's something that you're into.

For us, we're certainly profit enthusiasts.

That's why we focus on Technical Analysis.

It's often said that patience pays dividends.

Of course, in the crypto world these adages don't make too much sense. So, just like how we say that "Tether's a position too," in crypto it can be said that "patience pays sats."

But all jokes aside, Bitcoin has fallen back below 41,000, placing prices right back into this range. With Bitcoin below this level, new longs are likely to stumble in the coming days/weeks.

At least in the near term, some level of patience is warranted.

So while we're anticipating we ultimately resolve higher, the only question that remains is "how long?"

This is the video recording of our August 2, 2021 Monthly Charts Live Strategy Session

From the desk of Steve Strazza @sstrazza

This is one of our favorite bottoms-up scans: Follow The Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish… but NOT both.

We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients. Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.

We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades. What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind… and they’re doing so for one reason only: Because they think the stock is about to move in their direction and make them a pretty...

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out our latest Mystery Chart!

What we do here is take a chart that’s captured our attention, and remove the x and y-axes as well as any other labels that could help identify it.

This chart can be any security, in any asset class, on any timeframe. Sometimes, it’s an absolute price chart. Other times, it’s on a relative basis.

It might be a ratio, a custom index, or maybe the price is inverted. It could be all three!

The point is, when we aren’t able to recognize what’s in front of us, we put aside any biases we may have and scrutinize the price behavior objectively.

While you can try to guess the chart, the point is to make a decision…

So let us know what it is… Buy, Sell, or Do Nothing?

Key Takeaway: Indexes chopping higher, breadth chopping lower. Commodities leading the pack in 2021. Bonds not fearing inflation.

• Health Care made a new high last week and that helped fuel its rise in our relative strength rankings (up to the fourth spot and into the leadership group). Energy and Materials also ticked higher in the rankings, while Consumer Discretionary fell three spots.
• Despite an overall theme of large-cap strength, the industry group heat map shows deteriorating conditions across sizes for the Energy and Banks groups.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest "Minor Leaguers" report.

We've already had some great trades come out of this small cap-focused column since we launched it late last year and started rotating it with our flagship bottoms-up scan, "Under The Hood."

To make the cut for our Minor Leagues list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $2B. There are also price and liquidity filters. Then, we simply sort by proximity to new highs in order to focus on the best players.

The goal is to catch the strongest names while they’re small and still have serious upside potential. If any of these stocks ever climbs the ranks to the big leagues, the returns could be huge. We’re looking at 5-10x moves just to break into large-cap land!

Let’s dive into this week’s report and see what’s happening in some of...