Over the last two weeks, we've outlined how we've been patient in buying dips.

Given the lack of demand observed on-chain combined with the growing macro uncertainty, the dip back to the low 40,000s appeared to be a low-conviction buy.

Since publication of those two notes, Bitcoin's subsequently lost a critical level of support and now hangs in a no man's land.

The same themes we've discussed over the last two weeks remain intact, so this report will serve as an interim update.

This is probably as good of a time as ever to get back to basics.

Let's try to remember what this is all about.

What the hell are we doing here anyway?

I won't speak on your behalf, but I'll tell you the way I look at it.

The reason Technical Analysis works is because we're identifying trends.

And Prices trend.

We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.

This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.

I get to talk to traders and investors of all shapes and sizes every day of my life. This is something I like to do for fun, and it's also a great way to learn. But remember, I do this for a living. So not a day goes by where I'm not talking to market participants.

This has gone on for decades now. Everyone from the largest banks and hedge funds on the planet to recent grads first learning how to trade.

I have a lot of conversations with these investors. And one common theme I've heard over the past few months is just how difficult of an environment this currently is.

A lot of traders are getting chopped up in this mess of a market. And it's not anything new, it's been messy for quite some time.

So you're not alone in this.

Please don't think you are.

Bonds & Commodities. That's what the stock market bulls still have left.

But why do Futures matter to stock traders and investors?

Because the bond market and commodities market combined are waaaaay bigger than the stock market.

It starts with the information we're getting from futures markets, and then it trickles down to everything else from there.

With the stock market losing key support in the Nasdaq, S&P500, Small-caps, Transports and Bitcoin, what's left?

I think these 2 are what the bulls have left....

It's Saturday Morning Chartoons time. 

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

You can find the whole list of trades here.

Below you'll find the full PDF of this week's charts:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

The bull market for commodities is alive and well. They were the top-performing asset class last year, and they’re kicking off the new year with a lead once again. 

The energy-heavy CRB Index is printing new seven-year highs, and our ASC Equal-Weight Commodity Index just resolved from a nine-month base to its highest level since 2013.

To take advantage of this area of leadership, we’ve been highlighting strength and outlining long ideas in a variety of commodity markets.

We know not everyone has access to the futures markets, and that’s OK, because there are plenty of opportunities to express a bullish thesis on commodities through the equity market.

To make this easier, we’ve put together a universe of stocks that offer investors exposure to a wide array of different commodities.

Let’s dive in and talk about some of them.

Here’s our Natural Resource Stocks table:

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

When it comes to portfolio management, asset allocation matters. For many the starting point of this discussion of dividing assets between stocks and bonds. This leads to the often talked about 60/40 portfolio: 60% stocks and 40% bonds. From my perspective that is an incomplete opportunity set and decisions based on such an opportunity set are going to leave investors feeling underwhelmed. Stocks (VTI) and bonds (AGG) are important components, but commodities (DBC) and cash (MINT) need to be on the table as well. Commodities were the top performing asset class last year. Amid equity market weakness this week, commodities are moving to new highs (assets in up-trends tend to do that). Cash has been mocked recently as a guaranteed way to lose ground relative to inflation. That might be a small price to pay for the flexibility it can provide in the face of volatility elsewhere. Three consecutive years of 20%+ returns for equities can make investors financially and emotionally over-invested in stocks. Maybe it’s time to get back to the basics. Stocks. Bonds. Commodities. Cash. 

...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market-cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more -- but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

This is the video recording of our January 21, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Asset prices trend. We know that.

It's why technical analysis works.

Price changes for stocks, rates, commodities and even crytpos move in trends. They're not random.

We know this. It's not a secret.

So we should respect the behavior of the market. Not stick to narratives the lead to poor risk management.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Tuesday night we held our January Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

This is the video recording of the January 20th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche & JC Parets

01/20/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The number crunchers are reporting that workers have gone missing. Plenty of jobs are available. But no one is showing up to fill the open positions. 

They are calling this phenomenon the Great Resignation.

It makes sense if you’re looking at the situation through the lens of the established system. Folks are dropping out, which means they must be giving up. If they wanted to work, they would work.

But what if people aren't so much opting out of one system, but actually opting into a different one? 

We're putting on an $SMH March 265/270/320/325 Iron Condor for an approximately $2.15 credit.

This means we’re short the 270 puts and 320 calls, while protecting our position $5 away on both sides with long 265 puts and long 325 calls. We’ll be doing the same number of contracts at all four strikes to keep the risk even.

Check out our short video with the thought process behind these trades:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley

There have been some fireworks to kick off the new year. One of the biggest developments in 2022 has to be the US 10-year yield breaking to its highest level in two years.

The direction in which yields resolve from their 2021 consolidation will impact all the major asset classes, including bonds, stocks, and commodities. We’re already seeing procyclical assets catch an aggressive bid as the 10-year flirts with an upside resolution.

For now, the path of least resistance is higher. But we still need to see follow-through and confirmation before we can be comfortable that these new highs are here to stay.

When we look at the international bond market, it’s not just domestic Treasury yields that are on the rise. We’re actually seeing rates make new highs all across the developed world.

This is bullish confirmation of what we’re seeing domestically, as it suggests the current rising rate environment is a global...

If you're a trader, you don't need to pretend to understand the underlying.

Money flow is the only thing that moves markets. Everything else is just noise.

We pride ourselves on always adjusting our thesis to new data and never being dogmatic in our approach.

In the case of cryptocurrencies, it's been made out that gold and Bitcoin are sworn enemies.

Bitcoin is the "better store of value," they argue.

This black-and-white mentality does considerably more harm than good to investors.

If you're a trader, your only job is to follow money flow, not to assert your views on the market.

We bring this up because, when it comes to gold, there are early but constructive signs developing, with the shiny metal beginning to work its way out of an 18-month downtrend.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there. We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at...

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Key Takeaway: A sentiment unwind can be constructive if it bends but doesn't break. That is, if volatility squeezes out some excessive optimism without ushering in pessimism. On the other hand, when it breaks it becomes like water through a dam, creating a messy and, at times, chaotic environment. So far the unwind from the speculative extremes of early 2021 has been orderly and has not broken through. But pressure is building and the dam must hold if we want to still talk about rotational churning and not move on to discussing sustained cyclical weakness. That's the challenge for 2022.

Sentiment Report Chart of the Week: ARKK Sinks

One of the superstars during the recent bout of speculative fervor, the ARK Innovation ETF ARKK, now struggles to stay afloat. It’s meteoric rise and subsequent decline have been dramatic with a 380% run up off the March ‘20 lows followed by a 50% decline from its peak. ARKK’s recent breakdown is a great example of the speculative unwind we’...