From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• Our macro universe continued lower this week as 83% of our list closed lower with a median return of -3.91%.
• This week, the Volatility Index $VIX was the winner, closing with an 11.94% gain.
• The biggest loser was Lumber $LB, with a weekly loss of -10.81%.
• There was a 4% drop in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 11%.
• 11% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs....

Stocks are heavy out there. Everything is getting sold (except Coca-Cola $KO).

But even in selling down, strong stocks and future winners can and will begin to reveal themselves, first through relative strength.

Today's idea, while down on the day like everything else, is a stock that has been quietly gathering relative strength for some time now. And if we think the selling pressure in the broader markets is close to exhausting itself, this International stock may be one of the next leaders when markets calm down.

In last week's letter, Keeping Out of the Waters, we continued to argue the case for neutrality in the near term.

There's been so little to discuss in the way of actionable trade ideas in this messy, choppy environment. Assessing the price action over the weekend, it seems this patient approach has paid off.

We were stopped out of our starter Bitcoin $BTC long and a few positions in crypto-associated equities at a small loss. As Bitcoin hit our stop in the upper 20,000s, we sold any exposure we had and moved straight back into cash.

Following this volatility, we are not interested in calling a bottom.

Patience has been and continues to be the strategy in this tape.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Today’s Hot List is a short one.

The CEOs of Nerdy $NRDY and SoFi Technologies $SOFI both filed Form 4s reporting small purchases of their own stock.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

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This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t fight trends. It never ends well.

Learning to go with the flow often comes with age and experience. Lucky for us, we have plenty of both at All Star Charts as the current cycle isn’t our first rodeo.

We’ve been pounding the table on the energy trade, gracefully accepting all of this inflation and the outrageous prices at the pump.

What can we do about it? 

We can own the strongest commodities that continue to benefit from this inflationary environment. It’s really that simple. 

Let’s take a look at one of them now.

Here’s a zoomed-out chart of live cattle futures:

Last August, we covered live cattle, anticipating a breakout from a multi-year consolidation. Price chopped around the upper bounds of its range for a few months but ultimately resolved higher, completing a large basing pattern.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

The March 2021 CPI data (released in April of last year) showed the largest monthly increase in the prices in over a decade. The 2.7% yearly change in the CPI at that point was dismissed as being due to base effects written off as transitory. Some were even talking about how an uptick in inflation would be welcome. It has proven to be neither unduly influenced by base effects nor transitory. As inflation has continued to move higher and the Fed has belatedly attempted to bring it under control, neither stocks or bonds have responded favorably. The S&P 500 is down 3% since April 2021 and the aggregate bond index is down 8.5%. Commodities, however, have flourished, rising more than 77% in that time period. 

The details of today’s inflation report suggest price pressures remain prevalent. The Fed will likely have to intensify its inflation-fighting efforts. Whether from the Fed, the current Administration or the private sector, folks who were dismissive of inflation in Spring 2021 should have their current perspectives taken with a grain of salt. 

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Well helloooo again volatility! It's been an interesting week.

There are not a whole lot of charts out there that have me too excited to put any aggressive risk on here. But thanks to the jump in volatility, we do have an opportunity to sell some premium in a staple with a nearby risk management level that should help keep losses minimal if we're wrong.

So let's get right to it!

This is the video recording of our June 10, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Bonds form the largest money market in the world. The world of fundamental analysis has a lot of data, but when it comes to technical analysis, we narrow down the factors that matter. Basically, Interest rates are to the bond market what the price is to the stock market. This post will look into this topic and examine the present opportunities.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

Cathie Wood’s infamous ARK Investment Management is on our list today, as it just added more than 1 million shares of biotech stock Twist Bioscience $TWST.

The latest 13G reports an ownership interest of more than 11% in the synthetic DNA specialist.

Whenever in doubt, zoom out!

That's how I learned it. Mostly the hard way.

And that's something we like to do once a month, is really zoom out.

Monthly Candlesticks are great for that!

During this month's review I really noticed how much stronger some of the European Indexes were. Especially this one here:

From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @Ianculley  

The Japanese yen continues to be front and center, as the safe-haven currency can't seem to find its footing.

In a market where risk assets are struggling to catch any sort of sustained bid, finding investment opportunities in yen has been a great strategy. It continues to work.

Long USD/JPY has been one of the best trades on the sheets this year – by far! And it looks to be continuing its upward trajectory, as it hit fresh 20-year highs earlier this week.

Aside from providing a stellar trading opportunity, the current intermarket relationship between this forex cross and the bond market may reveal the near-term direction of the US 10-year yield.

Let’s take a look.

Here’s an overlay chart of the USD/JPY pair and the US 10-year yield with a 26-day correlation study in the lower pane:

These two charts have followed similar...

This is the video recording of the June 9th Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

06/09/22 2:00 PM ET

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

In Milwaukee, early June days when the temperature struggles to even get into the 60's happen almost every year. 

I've lived here long enough at this point (more than half my life) that it's not really a surprise anymore. For the first few years I lived here, I believed friends and family when they reassured me that it was "unseasonably cold." But I caught on soon enough.

In fact, it was 55 degrees and overcast here just yesterday. It had been raining off and on all day.  

I have no problem with any of those conditions – I’m not writing this note to complain about the weather. While I don’t think of it as Summer and it’s not what I was looking forward to, I can adjust. 

When the worst stocks in the world can't go down, what does that say about current market conditions?

Granted, I'm more into breakouts above horizontal trendlines than diagonal ones, but as Steve Strazza told me yesterday, "of course, but one comes before the other".

When you're right you're right Mr. Strazza.

Here's that breakout we were discussing: