The chart we are analyzing is the US Dollar Index (Monthly) going back 30 years.  

Pay close attention to the solid blue measured move as that represents the largest correction since the Dollar's bull run in 2008. 

Additionally, if you go back beyond 2008, you will see that the 'solid blue arrow' has been very harmonic, representing almost every move lower.  The other arrows are simply harmonics of the blue.  Additionally, notice the 14 period RSI.  We are approaching/at a VERY key support level on the RSI.  Finally, we hit the .382 from the USD all time low and have a classic polarity play all at the same level. 

Technically, the bounce in the USD dollar makes sense.  

Is this the beginning of a move higher for the USD or a "dead cat bounce?" Time will tell.  The 'monthly' candle coming into this level is big and w/ a lot of volume - this warns this level will give away, eventually.  And, right below it, is a projection target at 95.

In this 'new world order' (debatable) currency flows are everything.  Pay attention to the USD and the heavyweights out there - the Pounds, the Swissy, the Yen...

Today's trade is in a name that has been on my radar for a couple of weeks. I've been waiting for a trigger. And today, we're getting it.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended April 25, 2025. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolling ARKK into June options.
3. Closed XLP at profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.
5. Volatility Snapshot.

Let’s dig in!

The largest insider buy from today’s list comes via a Form 4 filing by Catalys Pacific Fund LP.

The hedge fund revealed an acquisition of 259,259 shares of Mineralys Therapeutics, equivalent to $3.5 million.

RWWM Inc disclosed initial ownership stakes in Fox Factory Holding Corp $FOXF and Carters Inc $CRI through the filing of two 13Gs.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from April 25, 2025:

Click the table to enlarge it.

Executive Vice-President and COO Nick Hobbs bought 3,038 J.B. Hunt $JBHT shares, equivalent to $399,746.

JBHT is a core Dow Transports component, so a leadership buy here is worth a second look, especially with freight stocks trying to claw back momentum.

President and CEO Justin L. Jude,  just put $100,000 of fresh money into auto-parts giant LKQ Corp $LKQ.

Jude is making his first open-market buy since LKQ’s correction began.

Not all double beats are created equal. Just ask T-Mobile US $TMUS...

The wireless giant delivered a double beat this quarter, topping both revenue and EPS expectations. 

Revenue hit $20.89 billion, and EPS came in at $2.58, both ahead of analyst estimates. 

By the numbers, it was a clean win.

But the market had other plans...

Despite the strong report, T-Mobile stock got crushed, falling over 11%. This was the stock's worst earnings-day reaction in company history.

Why the disconnect? 

Investors zeroed in on softer guidance for 2025, lingering concerns around customer growth momentum, and heavier competitive pressure in the wireless space. 

Good results simply weren’t enough to outweigh growing forward-looking anxiety.

Strong fundamentals, terrible price action: not the combo bulls want to see. 

When a name sells off this hard on good news, it’s a clear signal that something bigger is bothering the street.

This is the kind of stock that we want to sell.

So what else did we learn from Friday's earnings reactions? Let’s dive into the details.

Today's number is... 100%

100% of the major indices I track are trading back above their key shorter-term moving averages.

Here’s the table:

 Let's break down what the table shows:

The first column of the table lists several major indices. Each subsequent column represents a different moving average, ranging from the 5-day average to the 200-day average. A green highlight indicates that the index price is above the particular moving average, and a red highlight shows that the index price is below that moving average.

The Takeaway: Last week, I noted that the ongoing weakness in the stock market could result in further declines if the bulls didn't take action quickly. Fortunately, the Bulls did respond and made some progress, as there are now signs that the downtrends at the index level are beginning to reverse on a shorter-term basis.

The way I learnt it was that nothing good happens when the price is below the moving averages. 

So, seeing these major indices rise back above their 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages is an...

The S&P 500 keeps falling in our power rankings as global markets have shown resiliency.

The longer-term picture for international is becoming more apparent; favorable valuations, diversification away from growth, and momentum that's capturing the attention of traders.

In 2025, international has smoked the U.S. The ratio below tracks Vanguard's All World Ex US ETF $VEU relative to the U.S. - when it's moving higher it shows that international is outperforming.

There is an argument to be made that this trend is extended in the near-term and we could see a temporary rotation back into U.S. growth as markets find their footing following the tariff fiasco.

But the bigger picture is that evidence is mounting we're in the early stages of a reversal in U.S. dominance that's been present for the last 15 years.

Shall we expect more red from the U.S. moving forward in our rankings?

We think it'd be wise to start thinking seriously about this outcome.

We’re seeing an increase in risk-on behavior as markets begin to stabilize from the recent correction. This shift is especially evident on the international stage. And while the U.S. has been more of a laggard in comparison, there are still compelling opportunities emerging.

Gold miners, for example, continue to show relative strength — as confirmed by the latest power rankings.

At the same time, certain pockets of growth that were hit hardest are showing signs of life. Cybersecurity ($HACK), for instance, has successfully retested its 2021 highs — much like the major U.S. indices — and is beginning to set up constructively.

This signals a broader transition from risk aversion to opportunity-seeking. As more corners of the market find their footing, we expect leadership to broaden.

Risk-on themes continue to rank high on our power rankings, with funds like China Technology ($CQQQ), Momentum ($MTUM), and Robotics ($ARKQ) all showing notable relative strength.

But the standout performer remains the VanEck Video Gaming ETF ($ESPO), which has held the top spot for some time now.

Just look at the consistency—this fund has been delivering strong performance week after week.

A closer look at its components reveals some incredibly strong charts that are driving this impressive trend.

Yesterday, I was flat on my back, getting professionally stretched, my body creaking like an old door. It’s a bi-weekly ritual I lean into hard—it keeps me flexible, and helps me heal from years of grinding through life’s chaos. The woman working me over, a 24-year-old just starting her career, hit me with a question out of nowhere: “You’ve been around—what’ve you done to set yourself up financially that I should know?”

I laughed. A real, barking laugh.

“You’re asking me? You think I’ve got my shit together?” Her question caught me off guard, like a jab to the ribs. I’m no sage. My financial path looks more like a drunken stumble than a victory lap.

All I could give her at the moment was a half-assed list of regrets. “Here’s what I didn’t do,” I said, my voice trailing off. Don’t skip saving early, even if it’s just a few bucks a month. Don’t bet big on “sure thing” investments that crash and burn—I’ve got scars from those. Don’t let pride stop you from asking for help when you’re drowning...

It wasn’t the TED Talk she deserved. It felt like I was reading my failures out loud, each one a reminder...

The Fed doesn’t set the tone. It reacts to it.
 Always has. Always will.

This week, Waller gave the usual hint:
 "A serious drop in the job market could prompt more cuts, sooner."

Translation? The Fed knows it's behind. The bond market figured it out months ago.

The real story is written in the chart.
 The 2 Year Treasury Yield is the market’s forward looking Fed whisperer.
 Every cycle, the 2 year tops first. Every cycle, the Effective Federal Funds Rate follows like a lost puppy.

• When the 2 year peaks and rolls, the Fed has no choice but to cut.
• Markets aren’t asking politely for cuts — they’re already forcing them.

Right now, the  2 year is falling hard. That isn't a forecast.
 It’s the bond market screaming: "You're done here."

It’s not about what Powell...

 A tribute to ASC Gold Rush's standout setups

Great trades never ring a bell. They don’t come with fanfare. They come wrapped in uncertainty, quiet conviction, and a little discomfort. That’s how you know they matter.

Take Cocoa futures. One of the cleanest breakouts we’ve seen recently, but it didn’t feel clean until after it moved. 

Before that, it was all noise and indecision.

Here’s the setup we outlined in October 👇

We were betting that the breakdown to new lows wasn’t going to stick.

Why? The 14-day RSI was firmly in a bullish momentum regime. 

That’s a characteristic of an uptrend… Not a downtrend!

Moreover, this was a textbook consolidation after a historic 190% bull run which unfolded over 4 months.

Here’s how the setup unfolded 👇

The price ripped back above support and hit our target at the upper bound of the range in just a few weeks.

It was an epic bear trap…

Admittedly, this worked much better than we expected.

We...

Every weekend, I dive into our insider activity tracker looking for the most interesting and bullish buys — and let me tell you, this week didn’t disappoint.

Let’s break it down:

The Hot Corner continues to light up, with political filings stealing the spotlight once again.

Sen. Ashley Moody was active, making sizable buys in Nvidia $NVDA and Super Micro Computer $SMCI — dropping between $100K and $250K into each.

This purchase is significantly larger than the typical size seen in political filings, making it a bold move that definitely grabs my attention.

And with Tech reclaiming the leadership this month, these are exactly the kinds of stocks we want on our radar.

Meanwhile, Sen. Michael McCaul was busy, buying shares in  Netflix $NFLX and CACI International $CACI.

NFLX continues to stand out as one of the strongest names in the...

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the desk of Ricardo Sarraf, @nullcharts

The US dollar has been under increasing selling pressure all year, and just collapsed to its lowest level since April 2022.

When we look beneath the surface, the largest weightings in the DXY—namely the Euro, Yen, and Pound represent almost 83% of the index—and all three are threatening to break out of multi-year bases.

Analyzing the DXY in isolation is akin to evaluating the S&P 500 without considering market internals.

Due to the concentrated weightings in the index, DXY is always going to move in the opposite direction of these heavyweight currencies.

And right now, they are sending a very clear message about the dollar as they close in on textbook trend reversals.

The strength from these major currencies reinforces our...

After a historic rally fueled by Coffee and Cocoa, our Soft Commodity Index is finally hitting a major wall. 

With the price stalling at the 2011 highs and signs of distribution setting in, it’s time to shift our focus from chasing strength to hunting weakness. 

One commodity, in particular, is standing out on the downside, and it's giving us a sweet setup to take advantage of.

Let's talk about it...

Our Soft Commodity Index is an equal-weight basket of Cotton, Coffee, Cocoa, and Sugar.

It has increased in price by more than 150% over the last 5 years. This was primarily driven by historic uptrends in Coffee and Cocoa, which rallied 350% and 500%, respectively.

The complex was the home to some of the best trends in commodities for years.

Now, the...

During a recent Analyst meeting, it was discussed now that we're getting further confirmation that the lows may be in for the broader stock market, it's time to start shifting our attention to stocks that displayed strong relative strength in recent months.

The chart of Groupon $GRPN (remember them?) is exhibit A for relative strength as it's on the verge of printing new multi-year highs. And the team feels if this one goes, the stock could double. If it does, some strategically selected long calls could pay handsomely.

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We've also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It's got all the big names and more–but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let's dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here's this week's list: