From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Time for A New Driver

Priced in their own currencies, more than half of the countries in the world are trading above their 200-day averages. The US is not among them. 

Why It Matters: The US has been in an uptrend versus the rest of the world for 235 weeks in a row, the longest continuous stretch of US leadership in the past 50 years. More broadly, the past decade has taught US investors that global diversification means lower returns and higher risk. But that trend is long in the tooth. If the dollar continues to fade, the opportunity for new leadership will become more apparent. Emerging Market central banks led the way into the tightening cycle and they could lead the way out of it. Remove currency factors and improving global rally participation can more readily be seen. And right now the US is not in the driver’s seat.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

This is the video recording of our November 11, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

The largest insider transaction on today's list was reported in a Form 4 filing by Thomas Sinnickson Gayner, an independent director at Cable One $CABO.

He reported a purchase of CABO worth roughly $6.5 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a week.

We went from almost heading to the lows to the market trading up to its highest level since September.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

It’s been a lonely rise for interest rates.

The stocks and commodities that tend to accompany rising yields haven’t kept pace since early spring. Rates across the curve have accelerated higher, leaving these risk assets in the dust. 

But the seasons have changed – and the dust has settled. 

Cyclical value sectors have found their footing in recent months. Now, they’re playing catch-up.

One of the strongest market themes in recent weeks has been the reemergence of value over growth.

Check out the overlay chart of the 10-year US Treasury yield $TNX and small-cap value $IWN versus small-cap growth $IWO:

The 63-day correlation study in the lower pane highlights the strong relationship between these two charts. 

At a glance, they appear quite similar. But their positive correlation began to erode in late March, reaching negative territory by...

There’s a profound mental shift that happens when you flip from being in positions where bad luck could damage or ruin your trading account, to being in a position where the unexpected might actually make you a ton of money!

For options traders, an excellent example of these two positions is a short straddle vs. a long straddle.

In a short straddle, a trader is naked short an equal amount of calls and puts at the same strike and expiration. The PnL graph of a hypothetical 100-strike short straddle looks like this:

You’ll notice that as long as the underlying price (as displayed along the x-axis) stays +/- $20 from today’s price of $100, the trader will likely earn a profit as options expiration approaches.

Traders like these trades because they are high-probability bets, meaning that one has a better-than-average likelihood of earning a profit. Of course, when winning odds are favorable, the payoff usually isn’t all that high. And even worse, if the unexpected happens and a large directional move materializes, not...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a day.

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite were both up more than 5%. The market liked the October CPI data and also what Fed speakers had to say.

This is the video recording of the November 10th, 2022, Weekly Town Hall w/ Willie Delwiche.

11/10/22 2:00 PM ET

In early October I was invited on to BNN Bloomberg where I was very clear in saying just how AGGRESSIVELY we wanted to be buying stocks.

See here: Buying Stocks & Fading Dollars (10-4-22)

That worked out well for us, and anyone else who was smart enough to follow along.

On Wednesday of this week I was invited back on to follow up on some of those comments.

Why was I so bullish?

Why was I ignoring all the noisemakers?

Because I'm a grown adult.

I don't need bedtime stories to go to sleep.

The Fed means nothing to my life. And it shouldn't impact yours either.

Here's what we're doing now:

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

We held our November Monthly Strategy Session Monday night. Premium Members can access and rewatch it here.

Non-members can get a quick recap of the call simply by reading this post each month.

By focusing on long-term, monthly charts, the idea is to take a step back and put things into the context of their structural trends. This is easily one of our most valuable exercises as it forces us to put aside the day-to-day noise and simply examine markets from a “big-picture” point of view.

With that as our backdrop, let’s dive right in and discuss three of the most important charts and/or themes from this month’s call.

Guys, this is Technical Analysis 101.

You don't buy an asset that's just broken a level of support. If you do, you're only asking for trouble.

As technicians, we keep things simple, and we tell it like it is. We're not afraid to call something a piece of shit if that's what the data tells us.

I find a level of beauty in this process.

It doesn't matter how elegant your theory or big your I.Q. If the market is below a certain level, it's all wrong.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

We had a resting GTC order filled at our profit target in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

The largest insider transaction on today's list was reported in a Form 4 filing by Matthew Jacobson, an independent director of Datadog $DDOG.

Jacobson reported a substantial purchase worth roughly $50 million.

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

CPI data for September was released on October 13 -- the turning point for the market. We trended higher the rest of the month after that news.

Will today's release of CPI data for October (8:30 a.m. ET) be a turning point where we trend lower? Do we bounce, even temporarily? It's anybody's guess.

Welcome to the 2 to 100 Club.

We use various bottom-up tools and scans internally to complement our top-down approach. 

One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).

Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.

But the scan doesn't just end there.

We are only interested in the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.

Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey to becoming the market behemoths they are today.

When you look at the stocks in our table, you'll notice we're only focused on...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

It was a rough one for the market today.

Tomorrow's release of CPI data for October (8:30 a.m. ET) is dragging on things.