Spoiler alert: a fresh leg lower from gold doesn’t bode well for raw materials or the prospects of sustained inflation.
Nevertheless, inflation hasn’t gone anywhere, at least not yet.
As long as that’s the case, we expect commodities to see further upside, albeit not in unison. The broad rally witnessed at the end of 2020 into 2021 is unlikely to be repeated in the near future.
Regardless, stellar buying opportunities will present themselves.
We aren't going to let the bifurcated nature of commodity markets stop us from catching the next explosive rally.
In other words, the supply and demand dynamics for copper don't affect our decision to trade soybeans or wheat.
Instead, let's trade what is in front of us – even as...
Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut.
These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.
It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.
The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.
We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.
Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.
Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.
This week’s upside surprise in inflation is raising the stakes for next week’s FOMC meeting. While the 10-year T-Note yield is still just below its June peak, yields at the shorter-end of the curve are breaking out to the upside. Leading the way is the 1-year Treasury yield, which crossed above 4.0% this week for the first time in 15 years. Even more pronounced is the pace of its ascent. One year ago, the yield on 1-year Treasuries was just 7 basis points (0.07%). That makes for the largest year-over-year change in yields since the early 1980’s. Investors are unaccustomed to yields moving this high and this fast and that is disrupting both financial markets and the economy. Continued upward momentum in yields could leave the macro situation vulnerable to further deterioration and increase downside risks to equities. Stocks do the best in periods of sustained strength and low volatility, neither of which is present at the moment.
Every week, the team publishes the Follow The Flow report which surfaces unusual options activity. This is a report I reference often, not because I want to do the same trades that surface in the scan, but when I can find a technical setup that I like that is supported by the options flow, this can often lead to a bit of alpha with my own options strategy.
However, in today's case, I think I may jump aboard with the unusual options buyers and play along with them in a small-cap oil tanker.
These are the registration details for our live mid-month conference call for Premium Members of All Star Charts.
Our next Live Call will be held on Tuesday September 20th at 6PM ET. As always, if you cannot make the call live, the video and slides will be archived and published here along with every other live call since 2015.
Although volatility has returned to equity markets this week, we continue to see pockets of strength in a variety of areas and individual stocks from our Inside Scoop universe.
While many of the strongest names continue to struggle in terms of breaking out and sustaining new highs, just as many are showing impressive resilience despite the broad market weakness.
Here we’ll outline a trade setup in a small-cap stock that’s coiling near fresh highs.
In lieu of this week’s Strategy Session, we’ll also run through some of the names from our Inside Scoop universe that stand out.
Interest rates have resumed their ascent following a brief summer pause. And, in recent weeks, their climb has accelerated.
Aside from lower bond prices, what do higher rates mean for other assets, such as stocks and commodities?
It might seem like a simple question. But its relevance is undeniable given the current market conditions.
We’ve been vocal about the cyclical areas of the market that benefit most from a rising rate environment – think commodities, energy, materials, and banks. We’ve put out plenty of trade ideas in those areas.
That much we knew. We could see the evidence in the mess under our arbor every morning. Our dog was also aware of its presence. But we didn’t know exactly what “it” was – until Friday.
Rather than waiting patiently by the back screen door, the dog was crouched as if he was in starting blocks. He was ready to launch himself onto the scene.
He sprinted to the grape arbor, and after a brief glance at the vines, he raced along the fence. Within moments, he had his prey, shook it vigorously (as he has done in the past), and dropped a limp body. I walked over to get my first glimpse of the intruder.
Laying motionless at the dog’s feet was a not insubstantial possum.
What a wild week, eh? On Tuesday, the rug got pulled on dip buyers with the latest inflation data point coming in hot, throwing a whole bunch of confusion into the market regarding the future of interest rates. Or, so I'm told.
The net result for us options traders is that there is once again some juicy options premium for us to sell into. And we've got a bunch of sloppy ETF charts that look primed for some net sideways actions over the near term.
Earlier this morning, the long-awaited Ethereum merge was finalized.
Ethereum has successfully transitioned into the proof-of-stake (PoS) model, leaving Bitcoin as the only proof-of-work (PoW) blockchain of scale.
This is a major turning point, particularly in an ideological sense. The debate between the PoS and PoW frameworks will only intensify following this transition.
We debuted a new scan recently which goes by the name- All Star Momentum.
All Star Momentum is a brand new scan that guides us towards the very best stocks in the market. We have incorporated our stock universe of Nifty 500 as the base this time around. Among the 500 stocks that we follow, this scan will pump out names that are most likely to outperform the market.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach. It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their journey...