The Berkshires is a wonderful place to visit. And it can often be a great place to ride out the heat of summer.

Similarly, Berkshire Hathaway $BRK/B is often a great place to ride out the heat in the market.

And given the volatility backdrop in $BRK/B options, the options market is offering to pay us to catch the turn.

Let's get after it!

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. New position in XLC.
2. No adjustments are needed today.
3. Exited XLP at our profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

One week, the buck is breaking down. The next, it’s ripping higher.

With commodity currencies rolling over, the dollar-yen sliding lower, and the US Dollar Index $DXY failing to hold its recent breakdown… 

What’s it going to be this week? 

So far, the Bulls are in control. 

But that could change if dollar bears violate these critical levels…

First, track the 1.0915 zone for the euro: 

A decisive break above that level will apply pressure on the buck and set an upside target of 1.1125.

Next, keep an eye on the pound.

The GBP/USD is pulling back following the completion of a six-month inverted head and shoulders pattern:

The pound’s breakout remains valid as long...

The bears can’t break down Zoom. Despite the structural downtrend and a rough tape for tech over the past few weeks, ZM keeps hanging on. If the stock can reclaim 60, we want to get long and bank on a "scoop n score" back above this shelf of old lows.

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a Form 4 filing by Abdiel Capital LP.

The investment firm revealed a purchase of $6.7 million in Appian Corporation $APPN.

Director Roger D. Carlile bought 25,000 shares of Resources Connection $RGP, equivalent to $281,250.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from July 23, 2024:

In another Form 4, Terrence W. Cavanaugh, director of Selective Insurance Group $SIGI, reported a purchase of $171,700.

SIGI broke out of a multi-year base in 2021 and ripped higher towards the 161.8% extension. But price has since retraced all gains and is retesting the breakout level.

We're wondering if this former resistance will turn into support this time around:

The line in the sand lies at 81.15. If we're above this level, the risk is to the upside. 

...

The Ethereum ETF is here!

Let's take a moment to pause, put aside all the noise of information out there, and just return back to what's actually happening in the market.

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to The Junior International Hall of Famers.

With the goal of finding more bullish setups, we have decided to expand one of our favorite scans and broaden our regular coverage of the largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs.

This scan is composed of the next 100 largest stocks by market cap, those that come after the top 100 and are thus covered by the International Hall of Famers universe.

Many of these names will someday graduate and join our original International Hall Of Famers list. The idea here is to catch these big trends as early on as possible.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these future big boys are up to.

This is our Junior International Hall of Famers list:

Click table to enlarge view

And here’s how we arrived at it…

We removed laggards which are down 5% or more relative to the ACWI Ex. U.S. Index $ACWX over...

While I was away, volatility had a moment. And it's still hanging at pretty high levels, especially in tech stocks.

In the Technology sector ETF $XLK, we're seeing the highest implied volatility that we've experienced all year:

And with the chart of $XLK forming a range...

...this feels like a good opportunity to play for volatility mean reversion.

Here's the Play:

GE just beat earnings and is trading up slightly in the pre-market. When trading opens today, we expect volatility to come in a lot with this quarter's report now in the rear-view. 

In today’s Daily Digest, we’ll review the following:

1. No new positions today.
2. Rolled XHB position into September.
3. Exited XLC at our profit target.
4. Current status of open campaigns.

Let’s dig in!

They're out there telling me that the stock market is due for a correction this quarter.

But the stock market just had a correction last quarter.

Look at the Equally-weighted Nasdaq100 Index making zero progress since the start of March.

Remember that correction we were looking for back in Q1?

Well we got it:

The most significant insider buy on today's list comes via a 13G filing by Citadel Advisors LLC.

The investment firm reported an initial stake of 5.30% in Sphere Entertainment Co $SPHR.

Here’s The Hot Corner, with data from July 22, 2024:

The president and CEO of Selective Insurance Group $SIGI revealed the acquisition of 2,400 shares, equivalent to $200,532.

SPHR has been in the base-building process for roughly three years as buyers try to take control and force an upside resolution from this rounding bottom formation:

The line in the sand lies at the 45 level.

A breakout above that zone could send SPHR on a fresh reaction rally toward the old all-time highs.

Stay tuned. We'll be back on Wednesday with more insider activity.

And...

From the Desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza.

Welcome back to Under the Hood, where we'll cover all the action for the two weeks ended July 19, 2024. This report is published bi-weekly, in rotation with The Minor Leaguers.

What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.

We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.

There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.

Click here for a behind-the-scenes look at our process.

Whether we’re measuring increasing interest based on large institutional purchases, unusual...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Last week, we held our June Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.

In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize it by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.

Let’s get right into it!

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold’s failed breakout is testing investor resolve.

But let’s consider last week’s action before unearthing our bullion.

Check out the failed breakout with a bearish momentum divergence in the lower pane:

Waning momentum and failed breakouts go hand in hand. Gold futures proved an excellent example of momentum diverging from price, one of the reasons we track RSI readings.

But just because momentum confirmed the failed breakout doesn’t mean we should turn bearish gold and precious metals.

Remember, gold posted a new all-time high last week. New all-time highs are bullish in my book, no matter how you slice them.

Plus, the March breakout remains valid, and the underlying uptrend is intact:

Zoom out on the weekly chart, and last week’s bar becomes a whipsaw (much like last December’s false start).

I get it: No one likes...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

Gold’s failed breakout is testing investor resolve.

But let’s consider last week’s action before unearthing our bouillon.