Monday night, we held our July Monthly Conference Call, which Premium Members can access and rewatch here.
In this post, we’ll do our best to summarize the call by highlighting five of the most important charts and/or themes we covered, along with commentary on each.
As many of you know, Steve Strazza and I are touring South East Asia this month. We're hitting the homestretch of our trip, with about a week or so left. We're currently in Hong Kong and this city is beyond description. I don't even know where to begin. It's a cliche to say "you have to see it to believe it." But it is 100% true in this case.
As you can imagine, it's been a bit of a logistical challenge to keep up with the U.S. markets when we are on the other side of the globe. U.S. trading hours in Hong Kong are 9:30 pm to 4:00 am. Lucky for us, many of the positions we have on have been performing well. We've been positioned for a continued bull market and we're definitely being rewarded over the past few weeks.
We're currently positioned long in stocks like $AAPL, $MARA, $KBH, $GXO, $CARR, $VRRM, $ABNB, $IONQ, $DKNG, and more.
I mention this because as I'm looking at candidates for new long trades that we like, I am frustrated that most report earnings over the next 1-2 weeks. And as you know, I don't like positioning when a stock is so close to reporting earnings. I don't like the binary risk.
So, I think this is Mr. Market's way of telling...
We interrupt this raging bull market to update you on some historic positioning in the bond market that is sure to impact your portfolio, whether you like it or not.
Even if you don't trade bonds, this is really really important.
You see, I know it's easy to sit back and chill out with the S&P500 making new 52-week highs, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Transportation Average making new 52-week highs and, of course, the Nasdaq100 making new 52-week highs after posting its best first half to a year EVER.
Market breadth continues to expand and sector rotation is frustrating the hell out of anyone trying to short this market.
The thing is, what even changed?
What happened that stocks have absolutely been ripping higher since last year?
Positioning.
It's not the economy that drives stocks. It certainly isn't fundamentals.
As many of you know, something we've been working on internally is using various bottom-up tools and scans to complement our top-down approach.
It's really been working for us!
One way we're doing this is by identifying the strongest growth stocks as they climb the market-cap ladder from small- to mid- to large- and, ultimately, to mega-cap status (over $200B).
Once they graduate from small-cap to mid-cap status (over $2B), they come on our radar. Likewise, when they surpass the roughly $30B mark, they roll off our list.
But the scan doesn't just end there.
We only want to look at the strongest growth industries in the market, as that is typically where these potential 50-baggers come from.
Some of the best performers in recent decades – stocks like Priceline, Amazon, Netflix, Salesforce, and myriad others – would have been on this list at some point during their...
The US Dollar Index’s $DXY break toward fresh lows resembles a defiant crawl more than an earnest march.
An image of dragging my children away from the toy aisle flashes across my mind.
(Actually, I let them walk around the store with their toy of choice. And then, we ditch the item before checkout after a couple rounds of negotiations. It works quite well – no screaming involved.)
But while the DXY drags its feet, the individual currencies that comprise the index are picking up the pace.
The Swiss franc is ripping. The euro is posting fresh 52-week highs. And the British pound is hitting our upside objective.