From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Welcome to our latest Minor Leaguers report.

We've had some great trades come out of this small-cap-focused column since we launched it back in 2020 and started rotating it with our flagship bottom-up scan, Under the Hood.

For the first year or so, we focused only on Russell 2000 stocks with a market cap between $1 and $2B.

That was fun, but we wanted to branch out a bit and allow some new stocks to find their way onto our list.

We expanded our universe to include some mid-caps.

To make the cut for our Minor Leaguers list, a company must have a market cap between $1 and $4B.

And it doesn't have to be a Russell component — it can be any US-listed equity. With participation expanding around the globe, we want all those ADRs in our universe.

The same price and liquidity filters are applied. Then, as always, we sort by proximity to...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Industrials Are Island Hopping

his is a zoomed-in look at the trailing month and a half of price action in the Sector SPDR Industrials ETF XLI. Industrials have the tightest historic correlation to the major averages in the US, so the index provides valuable information for the overall equity market. 

Industrials just printed a failed reversal pattern, making for an excellent illustration of the choppy and trendless environment we’re in.

Earlier in the month, XLI launched higher from an island reversal formation. However, there was no follow through and the move immediately stalled. Friday, prices gapped right back into their old range, forming yet another island reversal. 

We’re watching the pivot lows around 82.75. If we take those out, we’re likely to get a fresh leg to the downside. This is not just true for Industrials, but the broader market.

...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was positive, with 70% of our list closing higher with a median return of 1.46%.
• Oil $CL was the winner, closing with a 16.54% gain.
• The biggest loser was Dow Jones Utilities $DJU, with a weekly loss of -2.82%.
• There was no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 6%.
• Only 11% of our macro list made fresh 4-week highs.
• ...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

This market is not for the faint of heart. It'll whipsaw you around, so you must be diligent. Failing that, it's best not to trade.

Just because I'm taking a trade doesn't mean you have to. 

Running Out of Energy

A 14% rally in Energy last week (its 3rd best weekly gain in at least the past 30 years) was not enough to keep the long-term in the Energy sector from rolling  over last week. This follows the down-turn in the long-term trend in commodities that we discussed last week. 

The Details: The longest sustained up-trend in the Energy sector since prior to the Great Financial Crisis has ended. The trend for the Utilities sector also turned lower last week. For the first time since the COVID crisis none of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 are currently in up-trends.  

More Context: Energy has been an island of green surrounded by a sea of red this year and is still up nearly 50% YTD. But over the past 30 years, all of the net gains for the sector have come within an established up-trend. With the trend rolling over, investors looking for safe harbors have even fewer options...

Here's a snippet that sums up a conversation I had with my Head Technical Analyst Steve Strazza this morning:

Me: Any trade ideas have you excited this morning?

Steve: Nothing. New lows everywhere today.

Me: I know. It's ugly.

Steve: I can give you a handful of nice charts that are breaking out, but they are all going to fail. Can't buy breakouts in this market.

Yep. That's where we're at. Putting on directional bets in either direction feels like a high risk proposition. Long breakouts are likely to fail, while short breakdowns are likely to get caught offsides in a wicked bear market dead cat bounce.

But this doesn't mean we're out of options to earn some profits. Options premiums remain elevated across the board, and we've got some areas with clean levels of support we can use as guiderails to sell some delta-neutral premium with higher-than-normal chances of success.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

As we turn the page on another quarter in the crypto markets, we leave behind yet another period of aimless price action.

Bitcoin ended the period unchanged after giving back some of its slight gains earlier in the quarter. The leadership was outside Bitcoin, as Ethereum sported some modest gains.

Other names, like Polygon and Binance, are well above the lows achieved in the mass capitulation event in June. This came after Ethereum completed the transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake.

In bear markets you'll find that the majority of stocks are making lower lows and lower highs in price.

With basic arithmetic, we can call those downtrends.

Using that same math, in order for stocks to be in uptrends, they first need to stop making lower lows.

"They need to stop going down before they can start to go up", is how I learned it.

Going through my charts this weekend, I found this chart right here pretty interesting.

The last time Mid-caps, Small-caps and even Micro-caps made lower lows was almost 4 months ago:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

We have the Consumer Price Index data for September coming out on Thursday morning, and we have more Fed speakers this week as as well. Expect more tough talk about inflation.

Should the $SPY break down below 360.94, we can potentially head to the lows of 357.04.

I'm monitoring the $QQQ as well to see if it touches the lows at 267.01.

The most significant insider activity on today’s list is a 13G filed by Baker Bros Advisors LP.

The hedge fund revealed an increase in ownership from 7.7% to 10.9% in the small-cap biotechnology company Rhythm Pharmaceuticals $RYTM.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

A funny thing tends to happen near the end of important trends.

The journalists finally catch on.

It's never at the beginning of trends. That's not when they get excited.

It's when everyone has finally agreed that a trend is in place, which by definition, is late in the cycle.

You see, the journalist community does an amazing job of aggregating consumer & investor sentiment. I find they are the very best at this.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

Is it a bear market or a bull market, JC?

Are you bullish or bearish, JC?

These are the wrong questions to ask, in my opinion.

They're the ones I get most often, but I think it defeats the point of what we're trying to do here.

The question I find myself asking is whether we should be spending more of our time looking for stocks to buy, spending more of our time looking for stocks to sell, or should we be on vacation doing nothing in this market?

Those are 3 real options we have as investors.

For me, I think it's worth spending our time looking for stocks to buy.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our Hall of Famers list is composed of the 150 largest US-based stocks.

These stocks range from the mega-cap growth behemoths like Apple and Microsoft – with market caps in excess of $2T – to some of the new-age large-cap disruptors such as Moderna, Square, and Snap.

It has all the big names and more.

It doesn’t include ADRs or any stock not domiciled in the US. But don’t worry; we developed a separate universe for that. You can click here to check it out.

The Hall of Famers is simple.

We take our list of 150 names and then apply our technical filters so the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Let’s dive right in and check out what these big boys are up to.

Here’s this week’s list:

Click table to enlarge view

We filter out any laggards that are down -5% or more relative to the S&P 500 over the trailing month. ...

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

I love it when a pattern carries both bullish and bearish implications. It could break out or break down. Either direction works for me.

That’s the beauty of the setup. 

For traders, the directional move doesn't matter. We can prepare for both outcomes. And, lucky for us, sugar futures look ready to swing either way.

Check out the weekly continuation chart of sugar:

Sugar posted a big base breakout followed by a year-long consolidation. This chart looks similar to gasoline, crude oil, and copper – which have all broken down to retest their respective 2018 highs.

It’s reasonable to imagine sugar futures do the same. But we have to see the move before we can take action.

Here’s a daily chart of the most actively traded contract (March 2023):

...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

Economic data came out this morning, which, in reality, wasn't bad. But the S&P 500 dropped 3% at its low.

As I mentioned this morning, to me the issue is oil up, bonds down posing the biggest risk to the overall market.

From the Desk of Willie Delwiche.

Apple Floats, Small-Caps Skid

The Chart: 

Many areas of the stock market have undercut their June lows. The largest company (Apple) and an ETF of small-cap stocks (IWM) stand out as exceptions. When we look over 3+ years (rather than just 3+ months) we see that small stocks are back to pre-COVID levels, while Apple has been consolidating its gains.

Why It Matters: 

The post-COVID speculative bubble in small-caps has been unwound. For Apple, the work seems hardly to have begun. Apple’s resiliency could become a liability if stocks take another leg lower and investors look again for safe havens to sell. As it stands now, Apple  is larger than 5 entire sectors in the S&P 500. Bear markets don’t usually leave anything unscathed.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

This is the video recording of our October 7, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.