Commodity Trend Rolls Over

You need to squint to see it, but the long-term trend in the CRB Commodity index fell last week for the first time since the end of 2020. 

The Details: This uptrend, the most persistent since 2002-2006, lasted 94 weeks. During that period, the CRB index was up nearly 70%. Over the past two decades, the CRB index has been trending higher 60% of the time and has risen at a  7.3% annual rate during those periods. It has fallen at 5.5% annual rate during the remaining 40% of the time (when the long-term trend has been falling).  

More Context: Commodities are still in positive territory for 2022, but are as far off their highs as are stocks. They now join stocks and bonds in downtrends, making an already unprecedented market environment even more challenging from an asset allocation perspective.  

Our Deeper Look looks at the absolute and relative trends across the...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Our Top 10 Charts Report was just published.

In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.

Dow Leads Down

Not only is the Dow trading at its lowest level since November of 2020, but momentum is confirming the move with its lowest reading since the COVID-crash back in Q1 of 2020. 

The summer lows we’re watching coincide almost perfectly with the pre-COVID highs around 29,600. This confluence of interest reinforces the importance of the current level. As long as the indexes are below their summer lows, sellers are in control.

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza

Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.

By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.

Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:

* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.

Macro Universe:

• This week, our macro universe was negative with 81% of our list closing lower for a median return of -2.02%.
• The Volatility Index $VIX was the winner again, closing with a 5.68% gain.
• The biggest loser was Dow Jones Utilities $DJU, with a weekly loss of -9.20%.
• There was no change in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 6%.
• Only 6% of our macro list made fresh 4-week...

Put September and Q3 in the books. It was one to remember.

But we're turning the pages to October today and the rally in the markets is helping to reveal where the new strength may emerge for the next bull run, as well as some significant levels of support for beaten-down stocks and sectors.

Today's trade is fading the recent volatility against a key nearly year-long level of support in a sector that got badly beaten last month.

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

It's been impossible to ignore.

I'm sure you've noticed it.

Equity markets have been selling off hard, while Bitcoin and crypto have been flat.

The primary driver of Bitcoin and crypto price action, more generally, has been the tight trading correlation to legacy markets. In fact, the two have been trading tick-for-tick over the last year now.

So Bitcoin's volatility in the face of the recent risk-off action in equity markets has our attention.

But is this a new trend? Is Bitcoin finally going to decouple here, or is this just a temporary bout spurred on by unique conditions?

Asset prices haven't been going up.

Not sure if you heard....

The gloom and doom on twitter over the weekend was pretty epic wasn't it?

And it's probably well-deserved.

The S&P500 just went out at new 22-month lows.

Gold investors were convinced by con artists that it was an inflation hedge, when it turned out to be the exact opposite all along - closing the month at new 2-year lows.

And of course, the greatest Ponzi ever - US Treasury Bond Market going out at the lowest levels since 2013:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a reversal on Friday in the indices!

There's not much more to say other than that September was an ugly month.

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by Ares Management LLC.

The hedge fund reported an additional purchase worth roughly $1.1 million in Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings $CCO, increasing its total stake to 9.34%.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

This is the weekly post that aggregates all the charts we put together throughout the week and organizes them all into one, easy to flip through deck.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @IanCulley

After months of selling pressure, the most widely followed commodity contracts are testing critical potential support levels.

More importantly, these support levels are the prior-cycle highs marked by the 2018 peaks. If there was ever a place where the bulls needed to step in and repair the damage this is it!

But, if these levels fail, we’ll have to rethink the structural uptrend in commodities.

Let’s run through the charts.

First, we have our commodity index that equal-weights the top 33 contracts in our universe:

Earlier this week, the index completed an 18-month top and broke to its lowest level since April 2021. This highlights the broad selling pressure across the commodity space and the need for a...

From the desk of Steve Strazza @Sstrazza and Alfonso Depablos @AlfCharts

Our International Hall of Famers list is composed of the 100 largest US-listed international stocks, or ADRs. We’ve also sprinkled in some of the largest ADRs from countries that did not make the market cap cut. 

These stocks range from some well-known mega-cap multinationals such as Toyota Motor and Royal Dutch Shell to some large-cap global disruptors such as Sea Ltd and Shopify.

It’s got all the big names and more--but only those that are based outside the US. You can find all the largest US stocks on our original Hall of Famers list.

The beauty of these scans is really in their simplicity.

We take the largest names each week and then apply technical filters in a way that the strongest stocks with the most momentum rise to the top.

Based on the market environment, we can also flip the scan on its head and filter for weakness.

Let’s dive in and take a look at some of the most important stocks from around the world.

Here’s this week’s list:

...

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

What a way to send off September and the third quarter.

But it was to be expected.

From the desk of Willie Delwiche.

Stocks & Bonds Make It Three In A Row

The Chart: 

In the past we've had bonds down for 3 consecutive quarters and we've had stocks down for 3 (or more) consecutive quarters. Since at least 1976, we have never before had stocks & bonds both down in 3 consecutive quarters.

Why It Matters: 

The lack of safe harbors in 2022 has taken a financial and emotional toll on investors. After the storm passes, some may want to re-evaluate their investment opportunity set and perceived risk tolerance.   

We've adjusted a position in the Paid-to-Play portfolio today:

This is the video recording of our September 30, 2022, All Star Charts Crypto Weekly Strategy Session.

Who's left to sell?

That's the question I find myself asking as we finish up the 3rd Quarter today.

(We'll discuss it all Monday night 6PM ET during our Live Monthly Charts Strategy Session)

Since the market peaked in February 2021, it's been a slow grind lower for stocks all over the world.

We're now approaching 20 months of this ongoing bear market.

It's no longer a secret that stocks are going down.

You can see it in the Put/Call Ratio hitting levels last seen at the 2018 and 2020 market lows:

From the Desk of Kimmy Sokoloff

As of now, the S&P 500 is still managing to hold onto the 3,600 level, and the $SPY is at 360.

Should we really break below 360, we can see 359, then 354.80. You can always trade long against the SPY 360 level and use 360 as a stop if you like.

The largest insider transaction on today's list is a Form 4 filing by LGP Management.

The firm reported a purchase worth roughly $12 million in the mid-cap electrical company WESCO International $WCC.

From the Desk of Ian Culley @Ianculley

Don’t let credit spreads fool you. 

High-yield debt hasn’t blown out relative to Treasuries. Regardless, the largest markets in the world are buckling under pressure.

You have to look outside the US and beyond high-yield corporate bonds to see the stress. Here are three cautionary data points to consider: European sovereign spreads, US bond market volatility, and the steep decline in investment-grade bonds.

When you weigh the evidence, it’s clear risks are rising for US markets. 

Let’s look at the charts!

First, here's a look at European sovereign spreads:

At first glance, these spreads look similar to high-yield spreads. They’re chopping sideways at or near their peaks from the 2020 crash. Nothing alarming or unusual from the countries at the highest risk of default – Spain, Italy, or Portugal. 

It’s a different story when it comes to the UK, as the spread between the UK-...