Longtime readers know how much we love new monthly candlesticks. They force us to zoom out from the day-to-day noise and focus on what's really taking place.
In the case of Bitcoin $BTC, it can't get any more defined than 30,000.
Remember this time last summer when we were obnoxious about this level every week?
We play with the cards we are dealt. There is nothing else we can do. We cannot employ willpower to create market conditions into being the way we'd prefer them to be. They are what they are, it is what it is. So we work with what we've got.
And what we've got right now are a bunch of badly beaten up stocks. Many still off 60%+ from their recent highs.
Dumpster diving isn't my favorite way to find new ideas to trade. But my man Strazza enjoys the exercise from time to time and recently, he's uncovered some notable insider buying and unusual options activity in some former highflyers, most notably Zoom $ZM.
But first, let's survey the damage. This probably isn't new to many of you, but look how far ZM has fallen from its recent perch atop Momentum Mountain:
The largest insider buy on today’s list comes in a Form 4 filing by ValueAct Capital.
It reveals an additional purchase of roughly $7.8 million in Insight Enterprises $NSIT, as ValueAct continues to increase its position in the tech stock.
From the desk of Steven Strazza @Sstrazza and Ian Culley @IanCulley
The US dollar is on the ropes as global currencies bounce back.
After failing to hold its breakout earlier in the month, the USD looks vulnerable against a growing number of currencies.
The pound and euro are catching higher. The Swiss franc is rebounding off its recent lows. And the commodity-centric Australian and Canadian dollars remain resilient.
We can add the Mexican peso to this list, as the USD/MXN cross broke down to fresh 52-week lows yesterday. This breakdown supports the near-term bearish argument for the dollar.
And it also offers a great trade setup.
Let’s take a look.
Here’s a chart of the USD/MXN pair:
While the Mexican peso has chopped sideways since late 2020, we believe the trend is shifting to the downside.
Last week, prices punctured the range lows as the USD/MXN hit...
Health of the economy hinges on the desire and ability of consumers to spend.
Risk On case needs to prove its point.
At one level it is easy to be enamored with last week’s rally. It was the best weekly gain for the S&P 500 since November 2020 and for only the fifth time in the past decade, all 72 industry groups in the S&P 1500 (24 large-cap, 24 mid-cap and 24 small-cap) were up on the week. Curiously, all five of those times have come in the wake of the COVID lows. But despite those impressive price gains, the risk off environment remains intact. The trend in the NASDAQ 100 is under the most pressure it has dealt with since the Financial Crisis. The same can be said for the passive portfolios that many investors seem to think only...
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Last week, George Soros filed a 13G revealing the purchase of 9,425,000 shares of the small-cap automotive semiconductor company indie Semiconductor $INDI.
This brings Soros Fund Management's total interest to 9.20%, making it the largest shareholder of the company.
The magazine cover on the left, describing how Bitcoin was "Storming Wall Street" came just a few weeks before Bitcoin put in a historic top in late 2017. Immediately after this cover story, Bitcoin went on to have one of the most epic crashes of all time.
Investors got wiped out right after the one on the left.
And now here we are after Bitcoin got cut in half, and many of the altcoins are down 70-80% if not more.
Nifty Auto has been gaining strength over the past week. We're seeing some follow-through there and hence, today's post will discuss a stock from the same sector.
Welcome back to our latest Under the Hood column, where we'll cover all the action for the week ended May 27, 2022. This report is published bi-weekly and rotated with our Minor Leaguers column.
What we do here is analyze the most popular stocks during the week and find opportunities to either join in and ride these momentum names higher, or fade the crowd and bet against them.
We use a variety of sources to generate the list of most popular names.
There are so many new data sources available that all we need to do is organize and curate them in a way that shows us exactly what we want: a list of stocks that are seeing an unusual increase in investor interest.
This is one of our favorite bottom-up scans: Follow the Flow. In this note, we simply create a universe of stocks that experienced the most unusual options activity — either bullish or bearish, but NOT both.
We utilize options experts, both internally and through our partnership with The TradeXchange. Then, we dig through the level 2 details and do all the work upfront for our clients.
Our goal is to isolate only those options market splashes that represent levered and high-conviction, directional bets.
We also weed out hedging activity and ensure there are no offsetting trades that either neutralize or cap the risk on these unusual options trades.
What remains is a list of stocks that large financial institutions are putting big money behind.
They’re doing so for one reason only: because they think the stock is about to move in their...
In this weekly note, we highlight 10 of the most important charts or themes we're currently seeing in asset classes around the world.
Major Levels
The Dollar Index and rates are the two most important charts on the planet right now, and they’re both rolling over. If these two critical areas of the market catch lower, it should provide a much-needed boost to a stock market still grappling with selling pressure. A weaker dollar lifts all risk assets, while lower rates should impact the most beaten down areas, primarily tech. If these tops resolve lower and stocks don’t catch a bid, it raises an important question: What will it take for stocks to rally?
Check out this week's Momentum Report, our weekly summation of all the major indexes at a Macro, International, Sector, and Industry Group level.
By analyzing the short-term data in these reports, we get a more tactical view of the current state of markets. This information then helps us put near-term developments into the big picture context and provides insights regarding the structural trends at play.
Let's jump right into it with some of the major takeaways from this week's report:
* ASC Plus Members can access the Momentum Report by clicking the link at the bottom of this post.
Macro Universe:
Our macro universe bounced back this week as 91% of our list closed higher with a median return of 3.34%.
S&P 500 Quality $SPHQ was the winner this week, closing with a 7.65% gain.
The biggest loser was the Volatility Index $VIX, with a weekly loss of -12.61%.
There was a 2% gain in the percentage of assets on our list within 5% of their 52-week highs – currently at 11%.
We retired our "Five Bull Market Barometers" in 2020 to make room for a new weekly post that's focused on the three most important charts for the week ahead.
This is that post, so let's jump into this week's edition.