From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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Although Turkey has already rallied 25% from the January 20th lows, the weight of evidence suggests this may be the start of a much larger move to the upside on an absolute and relative basis.

Structurally Turkey has been in a downtrend since a failed breakout near its all-time highs of 77.50 in early 2013. In August of 2015 prices broke below long-term support at 40 and have since been building a multi-month base below that level. Last week prices were able to break and close above it, while also closing above the downtrend line from the 2015 highs.

We've had quite a rally over the past month in the U.S. Stock Market. This is exactly the type of behavior that we should come to expect after a failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence, like we saw occur in early February. Let's remember that the U.S. and other developed markets, like Europe for example, are the laggards here. We turned bullish Global Equities in late January, particularly Emerging Markets, and it wasn't until a retest of the January lows, that we started to see the shift in the U.S. and other developed economies early last month.

We only wanted to be long the S&P500 if we were above the August and September lows. The bullish momentum divergence on last month's sell-off helped spark this mean reversion rally.

Dow Theory is something that gets thrown around a lot, usually irresponsibly. What I mean is, that there is a lot more to Dow Theory that what you normally hear about on the TV or read about on the Internets. Usually, conversations about Dow Theory revolve around the Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average either confirming or not confirming each other's trends. This is indeed part of Dow Theory, but not even in my top 5 most important Dow Theory Tenets. There are other aspects of Dow Theory that we need to pay attention to even more.

Here are my 5 most important Dow Theory Tenets:

Fibonacci Analysis is one of the most valuable and easy to use tools that we have as market participants. I've studied supply and demand behavior for over a decade, and I find myself using Fibonacci tools every single day. These tools can be applied to all timeframes, not just short-term but longer-term. In fact, contrary to popular belief, technical analysis is more useful and much more reliable the longer your time horizon. Fibonacci is no different. 

This doesn't have to be complicated guys. Supply and Demand dynamics do not change. I keep hearing how this market is "algo driven" or whatever, but those algos are built by humans. Supply and demand is based on fear and greed in humans, whether discretionary or systematic. I think the debate about algos is a waste of time for all of us. Let the noisemakers, who aren't trying to make money in the market, worry about that stuff. We're here to focus on supply and demand. Period.

The S&P500 has struggled over the past week to continue this monster rally from last month's lows. It should not be a surprise to anyone that we have struggled. Why? Because prices just ran into a ton of overhead supply. This correction is normal, and should be expected. Blame the algos if you want to sound smart in front of ignorant people at a cocktail party, but where I come from, we call this "normal":

Intermarket Day is one of my favorite days. Yes I'm a huge nerd. Deal with it!

This is when I go through many markets relative to each other. These markets include individual U.S. Sectors compared with the overall U.S. Stock market. We also look at other assets against each other like Bonds, Commodities and Currencies. We price Gold in other currencies, and change around denominators for both trade idea generation and also for informational purposes.

Here are some of the things that stood out from this week's homework:

Today is the 7th anniversary of the S&P500 closing low in March 2009. This date, March 9th, has gone down as the historic low in the stock market after the financial crisis of 2008. But the truth is that the market of stocks bottomed out well before that. Let's remember that the S&P500 is just 1 index with only 500 stocks. The majority of stocks had already bottomed by the time the S&P500 ultimately made its low towards the end of the 1st quarter of 2009.

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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During broad rallies in the equity markets, both in the US and globally, I look for those names / sectors / indices that are not participating to the upside, as those are normally the ones that lead to the downside once the market moves lower. One of the names that caught my eye during the rally off the February lows is Pfizer.

Before getting into the analysis of Pfizer, I think it's important to point out the weak relative performance of the sector it belongs to.

The roughly 5 year daily chart of the ratio XLV / SPY shows the under-performance that's been occurring in Healthcare stocks relative to the S&P 500 since mid-2015. Recently this ratio broke down below its primary uptrend line from the 2012 lows while momentum remains in a bearish range, suggesting that this under-performance is likely to continue.

Sometimes I share with you guys what I think is a really interesting chart and/or trade and call it the "Chart of the Week". Other times I'll put together a study to try and confirm or invalidate a prior thesis of mine and I'll title that the "Spreadsheet of the Week". Today, however, I think I have what could very possibly be the Chart Of The Year!

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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In early January I was pretty vocal about fading the rally in Natural Gas futures, but with my downside targets met last week, I think this market is setting up for another sharp rally to the upside.

Before getting into my price analysis, it's important to point out that Natural Gas just entered what is seasonally the best 3 month period of the year while public pessimism sits at multi-year highs. The combination of these conditions could provide prices with a serious tailwind if they begin to gain momentum to the upside.

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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Last week a structural breakout in AUD/USD was confirmed. Whether you trade currencies or not, it's worth paying attention to because of its implications from an inter-market perspective.

From a structural point of view, the Australian Dollar has been in a downtrend since 2012, with the selling really accelerating in late 2014. Recently this pair met its downside target at support near 0.68-0.69 and began consolidating as momentum diverged positively. Last week, prices broke above the downtrend line from the November 2014 highs to confirm the bullish divergence and breakout. This development suggests that as long as prices remain above the downtrend line, this market is likely headed toward prior support near 0.8075-0.81.

There are a lot of interesting things going on in the Crude Oil market these days from both a long-term and a short-term perspective. Premium Members of Allstarcharts have wanted to be long Crude Oil since mid-February when prices were able to get back above that key $29.60 level. Our short-term upside target was near $38 and this target is being hit this week. Nice little 30% rally. But moving forward, the implications of this short-term move now change the supply and demand dynamics in Crude Oil bigger picture.

Every month we host a conference call for All Star Charts Members where we discuss ongoing themes throughout the global marketplace as well as changes in trends where new positions would be most appropriate. This includes U.S. Stocks & Sectors, International Stock Indexes, Commodities, Currencies and Interest Rate Markets.

This month’s Conference Call will be held on Wednesday March 9, 2016 at 7PM ET

In this month's premium members conference call, we will discuss the following topics:

- How much more upside is left in this global stock market rally?

- Should we expect the U.S. to continue to underperform vs. Emerging Markets?

- How Much Higher Can Crude Oil Go From Here?

- The longer-term dynamics in Gold Miners have changed. How do we profit?

- Apple has bottomed - How high can it go?

- Why We Are Finally Getting That sector rotation into Biotechnology?

As always, we'll leave as much time for Q&A as possible. Looking forward to seeing you on the call!

Here are the Registration Details:

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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Crude Oil confirmed a failed breakdown below the 2009 lows last week. This development is extremely important from a risk management standpoint and has big implications from an inter-market perspective.

This market has been in a structural downtrend since late 2014 when prices broke down out of a five year long symmetrical triangle. The resolution out of this pattern was explosive, with prices declining roughly 75% off of the 2014 highs in less than two years. During this decline there has been no reason to be long this market for anything more than a tactical bounce, but with last week's close above the 2009 lows it is finally feasible for those with a longer-term time horizon to approach this market from the long side.

From the desk of Thomas Bruni @BruniCharting

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If you're a market participant, Lumber should be on your radar. The weight of evidence suggests that this market has upside roughly 20% upside from current levels and offers a trade opportunity not correlated to US equities.

Lumber has been in a structural downtrend since breaking down from a symmetrical triangle in early 2015. The decline continued throughout the year, with prices putting in a failed breakdown and bullish momentum divergence at long-term support near 215. After confirming the failed breakdown by closing back above the May 2015 lows, prices consolidated for 5 months and have now broken out above a multi-year downtrend line.

This morning I was on the Benzinga pre-market radio show, where I am invited as a guest every other Thursday. So basically twice a month a rap with the boys about the direction of the Stock Market, both U.S. and globally, Interest Rates & Bonds, and more recently precious metals and precious metal stocks.

Here is this mornings radio hit in full. Enjoy:

In this week's members-only letter we discuss the following topics:

• Why Are Biotechs and Regional Banks Now On Our Radar?
• Why Did Everyone Miss This Monster Rally The Past 6 Weeks?
• Which Stock Market Indexes In the U.S. Will Perform Best This Month?
• How High Can U.S. Interest Rates Go and How Will That Affect Bonds?
• Our Upside Price Targets In Apple, Now Updated
• What Is The Most Important Thing To Watch In The Gold Market?
• What Else Should We Be Watching In Precious Metals?
• Our Favorite Trade To Profit From A Weakening U.S. Dollar

You guys know that I prefer to incorporate more of a weight-of-the-evidence approach to markets rather than basing my decision making on a single indicator. We look at stock markets all over the world to find themes, both bullish and bearish, and then take advantage of them within U.S. markets. I then take a similar approach and go sector by sector in the U.S., including a series of sub-sectors, to break it down even further and find themes within the U.S. As you guys well know, the reason we were bullish since January was because of the weight-of-the-evidence internationally, not because of what we saw in the S&P500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average.

Today I conducted an experiment where I went sector by sector doing my normal annotations and note-taking, but this time I asked myself 3 questions for each sector/sub-sector:

Changes in trend rarely get cleaner and as well-defined as the distribution taking place in the semiconductor space. The infamous head and shoulders topping pattern is as clear as day in this one. Today we're looking at the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which is the benchmark for semiconductors. This basket of chip stocks appears to be near a completion of a massive multi-year distribution pattern.

This is a weekly chart of semi's putting in their highs last summer to begin the right side of this topping pattern. This one fits the description

With all of the bad news and negative sentiment surrounding the high yield bond market, I think this is a place where we want to be buyers, and no longer sellers. High yield bonds are just a fancy way to refer to "Junk bonds". At the end of the day, high yield is just that: high yield, because you're getting paid a higher return for the risk you're taking by owning junk. Both on their own and relative to the safe-haven U.S. Treasury Bonds, these things have been destroyed over the last few years.

Moving forward

How often do we hear one person ask another, “So what are the charts telling you?”, or “What does that chart say?”. Think about that. Charts don’t actually say anything at all. They’re charts. Charts don’t speak. So why do so many people want to know what the charts are saying?

Technical analysis is the study of the behavior of the market and market participants. The most important tool that we have as technicians is price. Movements in the price of an asset represent the changes in equilibrium between supply and demand. It just so happens that the best way to visualize these changes in equilibrium is in chart form. This is why many technicians prefer to be chartists. It is not necessary for a technician to use a chart